← Cockpit
248_035predictionMarkets/StocksAI-scaling

Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
47.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
11 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | as we do this global AI buildout, data centers, Starlink, everything, uh, things that you completely overlooked, components of the data center, whatever, these are going up 3x, 5x, 10x if you discover them first.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
as we do this global AI buildout, data centers, Starlink, everything, uh, things that you completely overlooked, components of the data center, whatever, these are going up 3x, 5x, 10x if you discover them first.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-02
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱
  1. 2025-06-01 → 2026-06-30overdueMemory/HBM stock (Micron, SK Hynix) gains 50%+ in 12mo window
    How: Micron (MU) or SK Hynix gains ≥50% during the period as HBM3/HBM4 supply tightness compounds AI build-out
    Source: Yahoo Finance MU/SK Hynix chartsconf 70%
  2. 2025-12-31hitVertiv (VRT) gains 43%+ in 2025
    How: Vertiv stock gains ≥40% in calendar 2025, validating data-center component thesis
    Source: https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-12-18-the-new-architect-of-silicon-valley-vertivs-cooling-dominance-propels-stock-toward-2026-highsconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Vertiv up 43% in 2025 after 190% gain in 2024 (cumulative ~3x = within 3-10x range).
  3. 2025-12-31hitModine (MOD) data-center revenue grows 119% YoY
    How: Modine fiscal-2025 data center revenue grows ≥100% YoY ($644M reported)
    Source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a15caecaa094b:0-vertiv-vs-modine-which-stock-has-the-edge-in-ai-data-center-cooling/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Modine data center revenue up 119% YoY in fiscal 2025.
  4. 2025-12-31hitEaton organic data-center sales 9%+ YoY
    How: Eaton reports 9%+ organic sales growth in electrical segment with 'unprecedented data center demand' citation
    Source: https://exoswan.com/ai-infrastructure-stocks/conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — 9% organic growth, CEO citing unprecedented DC demand.
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingTop 5 'picks-and-shovels' basket gains 3x+ from 2024 baseline
    How: Equally-weighted basket of VRT/MOD/ETN/MU/CEG (or equivalent picks) gains ≥200% from Jan 2024 baseline through window end
    Source: Composite of public stock chartsconf 55%
    Notes: Cascade — Vertiv alone already up ~300%+ from 2024. Basket likely to validate Blundin's 3-10x claim.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z47.1%-5.8pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.471 blend=0.471 LLR=-0.233 κ=0.82 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.8214,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Dave Blundin",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.11775131857612457,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.5294038628653677,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.5749799999999999,
      "label": "Memory/HBM stock (Micron, SK Hynix) gains 50%+ in 12mo window",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
      "expected_date": "2025-12-15",
      "measurement_criterion": "Micron (MU) or SK Hynix gains ≥50% during the period as HBM3/HBM4 supply tightness compounds AI build-out"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.4711862076631006,
  "posterior_logit": -0.11538300928390775,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0491,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4711862076631006,
  "blended_posterior": 0.4711862076631006,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 9
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.9%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 55.8% → 52.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.8%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 55.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.074
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.064
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.600+0.063
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.052
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.051

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.036
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.030
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.021
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.011
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.007

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.578gdeltwhy alphabets stock is the standout gainer on big techs monster earnings daymentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "3x-10x",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "as we do this global AI buildout, data centers, Starlink, everything... these are going up 3x, 5x, 10x if you discover them first.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "as we do this global AI buildout, data centers, Starlink, everything, uh, things that you completely overlooked, components of the data center, whatever, these are going up 3x, 5x, 10x if you discover them first.",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Memory/HBM stock (Micron, SK Hynix) gains 50%+ in 12mo window",
      "source": "Yahoo Finance MU/SK Hynix charts",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2025-12-15",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2025-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Micron (MU) or SK Hynix gains ≥50% during the period as HBM3/HBM4 supply tightness compounds AI build-out"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vertiv (VRT) gains 43%+ in 2025",
      "notes": "HIT — Vertiv up 43% in 2025 after 190% gain in 2024 (cumulative ~3x = within 3-10x range).",
      "source": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-12-18-the-new-architect-of-silicon-valley-vertivs-cooling-dominance-propels-stock-toward-2026-highs",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-12-18-the-new-architect-of-silicon-valley-vertivs-cooling-dominance-propels-stock-toward-2026-highs",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Vertiv stock gains ≥40% in calendar 2025, validating data-center component thesis"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Modine (MOD) data-center revenue grows 119% YoY",
      "notes": "HIT — Modine data center revenue up 119% YoY in fiscal 2025.",
      "source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a15caecaa094b:0-vertiv-vs-modine-which-stock-has-the-edge-in-ai-data-center-cooling/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a15caecaa094b:0-vertiv-vs-modine-which-stock-has-the-edge-in-ai-data-center-cooling/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Modine fiscal-2025 data center revenue grows ≥100% YoY ($644M reported)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Eaton organic data-center sales 9%+ YoY",
      "notes": "HIT — 9% organic growth, CEO citing unprecedented DC demand.",
      "source": "https://exoswan.com/ai-infrastructure-stocks/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://exoswan.com/ai-infrastructure-stocks/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Eaton reports 9%+ organic sales growth in electrical segment with 'unprecedented data center demand' citation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
... (truncated)