Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
Components of the AI data center buildout (power, memory, etc.) will see 3x-10x stock gains if identified early. | as we do this global AI buildout, data centers, Starlink, everything, uh, things that you completely overlooked, components of the data center, whatever, these are going up 3x, 5x, 10x if you discover them first.
Verbatim quote
as we do this global AI buildout, data centers, Starlink, everything, uh, things that you completely overlooked, components of the data center, whatever, these are going up 3x, 5x, 10x if you discover them first.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-06-01 → 2026-06-30overdueMemory/HBM stock (Micron, SK Hynix) gains 50%+ in 12mo windowHow: Micron (MU) or SK Hynix gains ≥50% during the period as HBM3/HBM4 supply tightness compounds AI build-outSource: Yahoo Finance MU/SK Hynix chartsconf 70%
- 2025-12-31hitVertiv (VRT) gains 43%+ in 2025How: Vertiv stock gains ≥40% in calendar 2025, validating data-center component thesisSource: https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-12-18-the-new-architect-of-silicon-valley-vertivs-cooling-dominance-propels-stock-toward-2026-highsconf 99%Notes: HIT — Vertiv up 43% in 2025 after 190% gain in 2024 (cumulative ~3x = within 3-10x range).
- 2025-12-31hitModine (MOD) data-center revenue grows 119% YoYHow: Modine fiscal-2025 data center revenue grows ≥100% YoY ($644M reported)Source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a15caecaa094b:0-vertiv-vs-modine-which-stock-has-the-edge-in-ai-data-center-cooling/conf 99%Notes: HIT — Modine data center revenue up 119% YoY in fiscal 2025.
- 2025-12-31hitEaton organic data-center sales 9%+ YoYHow: Eaton reports 9%+ organic sales growth in electrical segment with 'unprecedented data center demand' citationSource: https://exoswan.com/ai-infrastructure-stocks/conf 95%Notes: HIT — 9% organic growth, CEO citing unprecedented DC demand.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingTop 5 'picks-and-shovels' basket gains 3x+ from 2024 baselineHow: Equally-weighted basket of VRT/MOD/ETN/MU/CEG (or equivalent picks) gains ≥200% from Jan 2024 baseline through window endSource: Composite of public stock chartsconf 55%Notes: Cascade — Vertiv alone already up ~300%+ from 2024. Basket likely to validate Blundin's 3-10x claim.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 1,
"kappa": 0.8214,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Dave Blundin",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": 0.11775131857612457,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.5294038628653677,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.5749799999999999,
"label": "Memory/HBM stock (Micron, SK Hynix) gains 50%+ in 12mo window",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
"expected_date": "2025-12-15",
"measurement_criterion": "Micron (MU) or SK Hynix gains ≥50% during the period as HBM3/HBM4 supply tightness compounds AI build-out"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
"outside_weight": 0.7,
"posterior_prob": 0.4711862076631006,
"posterior_logit": -0.11538300928390775,
"predictor_brier": 0.0491,
"inside_posterior": 0.4711862076631006,
"blended_posterior": 0.4711862076631006,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
"predictor_n_resolved": 9
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.074 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.064 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.063 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.051 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.021 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.011 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.007 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (11)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.578 | gdelt | why alphabets stock is the standout gainer on big techs monster earnings day | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "3x-10x",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"context": "as we do this global AI buildout, data centers, Starlink, everything... these are going up 3x, 5x, 10x if you discover them first.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "as we do this global AI buildout, data centers, Starlink, everything, uh, things that you completely overlooked, components of the data center, whatever, these are going up 3x, 5x, 10x if you discover them first.",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Memory/HBM stock (Micron, SK Hynix) gains 50%+ in 12mo window",
"source": "Yahoo Finance MU/SK Hynix charts",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"expected_date": "2025-12-15",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-06-30",
"from": "2025-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Micron (MU) or SK Hynix gains ≥50% during the period as HBM3/HBM4 supply tightness compounds AI build-out"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Vertiv (VRT) gains 43%+ in 2025",
"notes": "HIT — Vertiv up 43% in 2025 after 190% gain in 2024 (cumulative ~3x = within 3-10x range).",
"source": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-12-18-the-new-architect-of-silicon-valley-vertivs-cooling-dominance-propels-stock-toward-2026-highs",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-12-18-the-new-architect-of-silicon-valley-vertivs-cooling-dominance-propels-stock-toward-2026-highs",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Vertiv stock gains ≥40% in calendar 2025, validating data-center component thesis"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Modine (MOD) data-center revenue grows 119% YoY",
"notes": "HIT — Modine data center revenue up 119% YoY in fiscal 2025.",
"source": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a15caecaa094b:0-vertiv-vs-modine-which-stock-has-the-edge-in-ai-data-center-cooling/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
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"source_url": "https://www.tradingview.com/news/zacks:a15caecaa094b:0-vertiv-vs-modine-which-stock-has-the-edge-in-ai-data-center-cooling/",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Modine fiscal-2025 data center revenue grows ≥100% YoY ($644M reported)"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Eaton organic data-center sales 9%+ YoY",
"notes": "HIT — 9% organic growth, CEO citing unprecedented DC demand.",
"source": "https://exoswan.com/ai-infrastructure-stocks/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://exoswan.com/ai-infrastructure-stocks/",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2025-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Eaton reports 9%+ organic sales growth in electrical segment with 'unprecedented data center demand' citation"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
... (truncated)