Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence.

Over the next 12 years, half of kids will have neural links while others won't, creating divergence. | if you think about you know if you start with a batch of say you know six seven eight year olds and you're planning that to end as 18 year olds but in the intervening 12 years you know half the kids will have neural links and the other half won't you know and they'll be they'll be doing something in the back of their mind you can't even see

if you think about you know if you start with a batch of say you know six seven eight year olds and you're planning that to end as 18 year olds but in the intervening 12 years you know half the kids will have neural links and the other half won't you know and they'll be they'll be doing something in the back of their mind you can't even see

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "half",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Rhetorical framing within question",
  "context": "if you think about you know if you start with a batch of say you know six seven eight year olds and you're planning that to end as 18 year olds but in the intervening 12 years you know half the kids will have neural links and the other half won't you know and they'll be they'll be doing something in the back of their mind you can't even see like how are you going to deal with this constant rate of change during that timeline.",
  "to_year": 2038,
  "verbatim": "if you think about you know if you start with a batch of say you know six seven eight year olds and you're planning that to end as 18 year olds but in the intervening 12 years you know half the kids will have neural links and the other half won't you know and they'll be they'll be doing something in the back of their mind you can't even see",
  "conv_cues": "half the kids will have",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "12 years (~2038)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Neuralink human trial enrollment exceeds 50 participants",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://neuralink.com/trials/",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Neuralink updates page reports >50 enrolled patients across PRIME, CONVOY, VOICE, Blindsight programs (currently 21 as of early 2026)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FDA grants first non-medical / cognitive-augmentation BCI trial approval",
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      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://sparkco.ai/blog/brain-computer-interface-neuralink-
... (truncated)