Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source
Prediction text
Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX IPOs are likely within the next 6 months | I mean I mean talk about hot IPO markets you know Anthropic going public, open eye going public, SpaceX going public. Uh these are going to be insane numbers in the next we're seeing that what in the next six months likely.
Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence; Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
I mean I mean talk about hot IPO markets you know Anthropic going public, open eye going public, SpaceX going public. Uh these are going to be insane numbers in the next we're seeing that what in the next six months likely.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: ipo_trillion_plus
Trillion-dollar private company IPO at announced valuation within 12 months of S-1
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidential draft S-1 filed with SECHow: SpaceX confidential draft registration statement filed with SEC, confirmed by news reports (Bloomberg/Reuters/CNBC) or SEC EDGARSource: https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/conf 90%
- 2026-05-15 → 2026-05-31overdueSpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGARHow: SpaceX prospectus appears publicly on SEC EDGAR as part of registration process (15+ calendar days before any marketing); verifiable on sec.govSource: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/conf 80%
- 2026-06-08 → 2026-06-15pendingSpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor eventHow: SpaceX management commences roadshow week of June 8 2026, with major retail investor event on June 11; confirmed via banks (Goldman/Morgan Stanley/JPM) press releasesSource: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261764312-spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-musk-ai-valuation-retail-investors-tradingkeyconf 70%
- 2026-06-15 → 2026-09-30pendingCascade: SpaceX completes IPO and lists on NYSE/NASDAQHow: SpaceX shares begin trading on public US exchange (ticker assigned, opening cross executed); verified via NYSE/NASDAQ press releaseSource: https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/05/01/spacex-anthropic-and-openai-could-be-fast-tracked/conf 55%
- 2026-04-15hitOpenAI IPO target window slips beyond Nov 2026 per CFO statementHow: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar (or replacement) publicly states OpenAI not ready for IPO by end of 2026; reported by Bloomberg/CNBC/ReutersSource: https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261831345-openai-ipo-anthropic-spacex-valuation-altman-friar-revenue-tradingkeyconf 85%
- 2026-08-01 → 2026-11-30pendingAnthropic files confidential or public S-1 with SECHow: Anthropic files confidential or public S-1 registration statement with SEC, verified via SEC EDGAR or major outlet (Bloomberg/Reuters/WSJ)Source: https://tsginvest.com/upcoming-2026-ipos/conf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.5467766117551927,
"kappa": 0.875,
"base_rate": 0.5,
"predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.024367893321794357,
"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 61% inside / 38% outside (TRF=0.547, base_rate=0.500 from ipo_trillion_plus)",
"inside_prior": 0.49390832809986784,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.7000000000000001,
"label": "SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": null,
"adjusted_llr": -0.2838255756757151,
"expected_date": "2026-05-23",
"measurement_criterion": "SpaceX prospectus appears publicly on SEC EDGAR as part of registration process (15+ calendar days before any marketing); verifiable on sec.gov"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.617256371771365,
"outside_weight": 0.38274362822863495,
"posterior_prob": 0.4525843125423689,
"posterior_logit": -0.30819346899750943,
"predictor_brier": 0.03667,
"inside_posterior": 0.4235557537285827,
"blended_posterior": 0.4525843125423689,
"reference_class_id": "ipo_trillion_plus",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.2838255756757151,
"predictor_n_resolved": 15
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.103 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.092 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.081 |
| prereq | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated — Jensen Huang | 86.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.066 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.065 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.047 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.033 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.018 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.003 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (13)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 | First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2026 | First $1T+ IPO in 2026 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2028 | First $1T+ IPO in 2028 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.836 | manifold | Will Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month? | 11% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-05 |
| 0.810 | manifold | Will Anthropic IPO by….? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.795 | manifold | How long will the Anthropic post-IPO lock-up period be? | — | mentions | ✓ | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.765 | manifold | Anthropic closing market cap on IPO day? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.760 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-25 |
| 0.759 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-13 |
| 0.759 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-01-23 |
| 0.758 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | 72% | mentions | pending | 2026-03-25 |
| 0.757 | polymarket | Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | 99% | mentions | pending | 2026-01-23 |
| 0.754 | manifold | Will OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027? | 34% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "6 months",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "I mean I mean talk about hot IPO markets you know Anthropic going public, open eye going public, SpaceX going public. Uh these are going to be insane numbers in the next we're seeing that what in the next six months likely.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "I mean I mean talk about hot IPO markets you know Anthropic going public, open eye going public, SpaceX going public. Uh these are going to be insane numbers in the next we're seeing that what in the next six months likely.",
"conv_cues": "likely",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "By September 2026",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SpaceX confidential draft S-1 filed with SEC",
"source": "https://www.techi.com/spacex-ipo/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"observed_date": "2026-04-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confidential draft registration statement filed with SEC, confirmed by news reports (Bloomberg/Reuters/CNBC) or SEC EDGAR"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SpaceX public S-1 / prospectus filing on SEC EDGAR",
"source": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/04/27/spacex-ipo-timeline-every-important-date-need-know/",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.8,
"expected_date": "2026-05-23",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-31T22:09:40.747869+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-05-31",
"from": "2026-05-15"
},
"measurement_criterion": "SpaceX prospectus appears publicly on SEC EDGAR as part of registration process (15+ calendar days before any marketing); verifiable on sec.gov"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SpaceX IPO roadshow begins with retail investor event",
"source": "https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/stocks/us-stocks/261764312-spacex-openai-anthropic-ipo-musk-ai-valuation-retail-investors-tradingkey",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"expected_date": "2026-06-11",
... (truncated)