Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source
Prediction text
Next-generation mobile phones will regain growth through AI neural chips. | in terms of mobile phone purchases, that will be displaced, of course, by headwear and uh earware and all kinds of devices that are beyond just your phone. Well, I think a lot of that, sorry, the reason the phone sales dropped off is because they didn't have a function or a feature that everyone was clamoring for... But again, AI could completely change that. The neural chips.
Verbatim quote
in terms of mobile phone purchases, that will be displaced, of course, by headwear and uh earware and all kinds of devices that are beyond just your phone. Well, I think a lot of that, sorry, the reason the phone sales dropped off is because they didn't have a function or a feature that everyone was clamoring for... But again, AI could completely change that. The neural chips.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingSmartphone shipments rebound in unit terms YoYHow: IDC/Canalys/Counterpoint report >=3% YoY unit-shipment growth in any rolling quarter, attributing rebound to AI features.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingApple AI-native iPhone or major OS overhaul announcementHow: Apple announces deeper agentic OS or 'AI-native' iPhone hardware refresh (per WWDC, fall keynote, or 8-K).Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingOpenAI-Qualcomm-MediaTek AI-first phone reaches developer/previewHow: OpenAI partnership delivers reference device, dev kit, or branded phone shown at trade event or shipping to developers.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pending2nm NPU-class SoC launches across Apple/Qualcomm/MediaTek/GoogleHow: All four major mobile silicon vendors ship 2nm-process SoCs with dedicated large NPU blocks for on-device LLMs.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2027-06-18pendingAverage smartphone ASP rises driven by NPU-rich SKUsHow: IDC or Counterpoint reports global smartphone ASP up >=8% YoY tied to AI-feature SKUs by mid-2027.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.079 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.069 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.054 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.046 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.052 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.045 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.028 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.588 | manifold | Will the Trump-branded Trump Mobile Phone actually exist before the next Presidential election? | 94% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
"mode": "SPECULATION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "the reason the phone sales dropped off is because they didn't have a function or a feature that everyone was clamoring for because people used to res get a new phone when the cameras were improving like crazy. They'd get a new phone every 18 months to two years. Now, it's like, well, I can I can sit on this phone for 3 years, four years. I'm not even noticing the difference. But again, AI could completely change that. The neural chips.",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "in terms of mobile phone purchases, that will be displaced, of course, by headwear and uh earware and all kinds of devices that are beyond just your phone. Well, I think a lot of that, sorry, the reason the phone sales dropped off is because they didn't have a function or a feature that everyone was clamoring for... But again, AI could completely change that. The neural chips.",
"conv_cues": "could",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near-term",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Smartphone shipments rebound in unit terms YoY",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.androidauthority.com/smartphone-soc-shipments-declining-in-2026-3636273/",
"expected_date": "2026-10-30",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-03-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "IDC/Canalys/Counterpoint report >=3% YoY unit-shipment growth in any rolling quarter, attributing rebound to AI features."
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Apple AI-native iPhone or major OS overhaul announcement",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to"
... (truncated)