Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.
Predictor: Brett Adcock · ep#229 "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229" · source
Prediction text
Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders. | do you think you might franchise out the neural net and the circuitry around it... no just I think it's super unsafe... just giving this AI system or even hardware to anybody that would want like this is like uh not something we will entertain.
Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count
Verbatim quote
do you think you might franchise out the neural net and the circuitry around it... no just I think it's super unsafe... just giving this AI system or even hardware to anybody that would want like this is like uh not something we will entertain.
Resolution evidence
Figure won't license IP to 3rd parties — consistent with their vertical integration stance.
Predictor: Brett Adcock
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Brett Adcock is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: humanoid_commercial_volume
>10,000 unit cumulative deployment of humanoid robot SKU within 3 years of debut
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No upstream prereqs identified — milestones are derived from window quartiles only. No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.44345999999999997,
"inside_posterior": 0.55654,
"validation_notes": "Figure won't license IP to 3rd parties — consistent with their vertical integration stance.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.55654,
"resolution_evidence": "Figure won't license IP to 3rd parties — consistent with their vertical integration stance.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | 20.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.468 |
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.159 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.141 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.124 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.098 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 | Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Figure won't license IP to 3rd parties — consistent with their vertical integration stance. |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "I think it's super unsafe I think we see these robots out there like this I think like uh they're around humans we don't have like we don't own the hardware we don't know what they're doing... just giving this AI system or even hardware to anybody that would want like this is like uh not something we will entertain.",
"verbatim": "do you think you might franchise out the neural net and the circuitry around it... no just I think it's super unsafe... just giving this AI system or even hardware to anybody that would want like this is like uh not something we will entertain.",
"conv_cues": "will not entertain",
"direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "future (unspecified)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Figure will NOT license out its neural net or hardware IP to third-party form-factor builders.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "229_028",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"affiliation": "Figure",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 229,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:17.076515+00:00",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-02-11",
"parse_method": "UNMAPPABLE",
"domain_bucket": "Robotics",
"episode_title": "The Humanoid Takeover: $50T Market, Figure's Full Body Autonomy, and Robots in Dorms #229",
"fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F003",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": false,
"appears_in_eps": "229",
"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 1,
"priority_weight": 4,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C2",
"C3",
"C5",
"C8"
],
"active_end_month": 0,
"watch_events_raw": "Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count",
"active_start_month": 0,
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
"track_record_grade": "B",
"track_record_notes": "Figure has shipped 3 generations of robots in 3.5 years (faster than Tesla's Optimus); BMW deployment validated. Track record <5y; billion-humanoid claim is untestable in near term.",
"flag_near_term_2027": false,
"primary_scenario_id": "S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030",
"flag_high_conviction": true,
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:48.702276+00:00",
"reference_class_match": {
"top_n": [
{
"id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
"cosine": 0.5624
}
],
"margin": 0.5624,
"best_id": "humanoid_commercial_volume",
"decision": "assigned",
"second_id": null,
"threshold": 0.55,
"computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
"best_similarity": 0.5624,
"margin_required": 0.05,
"second_similarity": null
},
"validation_status_raw": "CONFIRMED",
"composite_signal_score": 36.8,
"scenario_assignment_at": "2026-04-30T16:04:16.912851+00:00",
"flag_priority_watchlist": false,
"flag_timeline_near_term": false,
"ps_displacement_mechanism": "AI agents displace mid-skill knowledge workflows; BPO/IT-services margin compression accelerates 2026-2028 as enterprise automation matures.",
"scenario_assignment_reasoning": "predictor='Brett Adcock' tilt=mid (year~2029) → S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030",
"scenario_assignment_confidence": "MEDIUM",
"scenario_assignment_similarity": 0.621
}