COD_ROB_003predictionRoboticshumanoid-deployment

At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

58.0%

Current probability

33.1%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-01-01 – 2027-12-31

Edges in / out

5 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 33.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 4 pending

2026-01-31hitTesla Optimus reaches 8,000 cumulative deployed units
How: Tesla / Humanoid APAC / humanoidintel.ai tracker confirms Tesla Optimus cumulative deployment >=1,000 units (threshold 1) — actual reported 8,000
Source: https://humanoidintel.ai/humanoid-robots-deployed/conf 95%
2026-02-28hitAGIBOT / Zhiyuan ships 10,000 cumulative humanoid units (vendor #2 over 1,000)
How: Public 36kr/Humanoid-APAC report confirms AGIBOT/Zhiyuan cumulative shipments >=1,000 humanoid units — actual 10,000 reported, validating prediction
Source: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3587759254913280conf 95%
2026-03-31hitGlobal humanoid deployment exceeds 19,000 units across 15+ operators
How: humanoidintel.ai monthly tracker reports total active humanoid deployment >=15,000 units globally across diversified operator base
Source: https://humanoidintel.ai/humanoid-robots-deployed/conf 90%
2026-05-06overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFigure AI annual production capacity reaches 12,000 units/year (BotQ)
How: Figure / Brett Adcock public statement OR third-party verification (Sourcery.vc tour, manufacturing journalism) confirming BotQ annualized run-rate >=10,000 units/year
Source: https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturingconf 75%
2026-09-08pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUBTECH Walker S2 mass production with >800M yuan order book reaches 1,000+ delivered
How: UBTECH press release or PRNewswire confirms cumulative Walker S2 deliveries >=1,000 units, qualifying as 3rd vendor over threshold
Source: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ubtech-humanoid-robot-walker-s2-begins-mass-production-and-delivery-with-orders-exceeding-800-million-yuan-302616924.htmlconf 70%
2027-01-11pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2027-05-17pendingAt least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027
2027-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingCascade: Industry tracker reports >=5 vendors over 1,000-unit cumulative deployment by EOY 2027
How: humanoidintel.ai / Humanoid APAC / similar publishes year-end 2027 census showing 5+ separate humanoid OEMs each with cumulative shipments >=1,000 (e.g., Tesla, AGIBOT, Figure, 1X, UBTECH, Apptronik)
Source: https://humanoidapac.ai/article-china-humanoid-q1-2026-en.htmlconf 70%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 33%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z33.1%+1.2pp

Network propagation: 31.9% → 33.1%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-14T22:14:31Z31.9%-8.4pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.319 blend=0.319 LLR=-0.365 κ=0.90 no_blend

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 0.8162870259211947,
  "kappa": 0.9,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Codex Research Pack",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.3928196647355641,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.4030387084985328,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.9,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.36491859729734794,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-06",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.4285990818551637,
  "outside_weight": 0.5714009181448363,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3191375152914576,
  "posterior_logit": -0.7577382620329121,
  "predictor_brier": null,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3191375152914576,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3191375152914576,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.36491859729734794,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 0
}

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.3%-5.9pp

Network propagation: 46.2% → 40.3%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.2%-11.8pp

Network propagation: 58.0% → 46.2%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028 Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	50.0%	0.580	0.050	-0.017

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

6 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (3)

HYMTF NVDA TSLA

Adverse (3)

KFY MAN RHI

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	S_HUMANOID_ENTERPRISE_2028	Humanoid R2: 100K+ enterprise by Nov 2028	humanoid_deployment	—
correlate	S_HUMANOID_FACTORY_2026	Humanoid R1: 10K+ factory units by Nov 2026	humanoid_deployment	—
correlate	S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030	Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030	humanoid_deployment	—
correlate	S_ROBOTAXI_DELAYED	Robotaxi mass deployment delayed past 2031	robotaxi_deployment	—
correlate	S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033	Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033	humanoid_deployment	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	1X - NEO Factory in Hayward with Consumer Shipments Planned for 2026	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.700	codex_research_pack	Agility Robotics - RoboFab and company milestones	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.700	codex_research_pack	Figure - Ramping Figure 03 Production	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-29
0.659	manifold	How many unique emoji will there be at the end of 2028?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-24
0.627	manifold	Manifold Markets says I have 249 Traders right now. By June 12th PDT (California Time) I will have 650.	33%	mentions	pending	2026-06-06
0.626	manifold	Manifold Markets says I have 140 Traders right now. By June 7th I will have 60 more.	74%	mentions	pending	2026-06-03
0.622	manifold	How many 10s of thousands of species be on OneZoom at the end of this year?	66%	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.618	manifold	More than 2000 suspected deaths due to the Ebola outbreak by the end of 2026?	16%	mentions	pending	2026-05-26
0.610	manifold	How many people will PDA at MOP 2026?	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-01
0.603	github_release	1x-technologies/halodi-robot-models 2.3.2	—	mentions	pending	2020-10-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla Optimus reaches 8,000 cumulative deployed units",
      "source": "https://humanoidintel.ai/humanoid-robots-deployed/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla / Humanoid APAC / humanoidintel.ai tracker confirms Tesla Optimus cumulative deployment >=1,000 units (threshold 1) — actual reported 8,000"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AGIBOT / Zhiyuan ships 10,000 cumulative humanoid units (vendor #2 over 1,000)",
      "source": "https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3587759254913280",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public 36kr/Humanoid-APAC report confirms AGIBOT/Zhiyuan cumulative shipments >=1,000 humanoid units — actual 10,000 reported, validating prediction"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Global humanoid deployment exceeds 19,000 units across 15+ operators",
      "source": "https://humanoidintel.ai/humanoid-robots-deployed/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "humanoidintel.ai monthly tracker reports total active humanoid deployment >=15,000 units globally across diversified operator base"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-06",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-14T22:14:31.900138+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure AI annual production capacity reaches 12,000 units/year (BotQ)",
      "source": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/figure-claims-production-milestone-as-botq-ramps-up-figure-03-manufacturing",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure / Brett Adcock public statement OR third-party verification (Sourcery.vc tour, manufacturing journalism) confirming BotQ annualized run-rate >=10,000 units/year"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "UBTECH Walker S2 mass production with >800M yuan order book reaches 1,000+ delivered",
      "source": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ubtech-humanoid-robot-walker-s2-begins-mass-production-and-delivery-with-orders-exceeding-800-million-yuan-302616924.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "UBTECH press release or PRNewswire confirms cumulative Walker S2 deliveries >=1,000 units
... (truncated)