Robotaxi mass deployment delayed past 2031
Prediction text
Regulatory blocks, safety incidents, or technical limits prevent wide deployment.
Predictor calibration
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.
Prerequisites (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | 243_003 | By 2029, Uber will facilitate more autonomous/robotaxi rides than anyone else in the world | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | 243_017 | Cost of lidar and cameras will continue coming down, making new cars autonomous-ready within 10 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| correlate | COD_ROB_003 | At least two humanoid vendors exceed 1,000 cumulative deployed robots by end 2027 | Robotics | — |
| correlate | 243_034 | Autonomous is bringing new customers and expanding the market, not just replacing human driving | Auto/Transport | — |
Raw metadata
{
"fork_key": "robotaxi",
"dimension": "robotaxi_deployment",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Robotaxi",
"family_order": 4,
"beyond_horizon": true
}