Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source
Prediction text
Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna | we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc.
Verbatim quote
we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-25hitUber-Manna drone delivery launches in Ireland (first European market)How: Public announcement of Uber-Manna integrated drone delivery going liveSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-04-01hitManna raises $50M to expand US drone-delivery network with Uber integration upsideHow: Manna announces $50M funding round for US expansionSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
- 2027-01-27pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUber-Zipline drone delivery partnership goes live (first US/global market)How: Public announcement of Uber Eats integration with Zipline live in any US metroSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingUber drone-delivery service expands to 5+ European countriesHow: Uber announces drone partnership live in Denmark, Greece, Czech Republic, plus 2 more named EU marketsSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2027-10-27pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2028-07-25pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2028-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingUber drone delivery hits 1M cumulative deliveries across all partnersHow: Uber Eats publishes cumulative drone delivery count >= 1,000,000 across Manna+Zipline+Wing partnersSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | 20.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.241 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.109 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.084 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.059 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030 | Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.600 | edgar_8k | Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.600 | edgar_8k | Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.538 | edgar_8k | SURF AIR MOBILITY INC. (SRFM) (CIK 0001936224) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc.",
"verbatim": "we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc.",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Current/near-term",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Uber-Manna drone delivery launches in Ireland (first European market)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2026/2/25/ireland-first-as-uber-connects-with-manna-for-first-european-launch-of-drone-delivery-service",
"expected_date": "2026-02-25",
"observed_date": "2026-02-25",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Public announcement of Uber-Manna integrated drone delivery going live"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Manna raises $50M to expand US drone-delivery network with Uber integration upside",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.9,
"source_url": "https://dronelife.com/2026/04/01/manna-raises-50m-to-expand-drone-delivery-network-in-the-u-s/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"observed_date": "2026-04-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Manna announces $50M funding round for US expansion"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-01-27",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Uber-Zipline drone delivery partnership goes live (first US/global market)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/09/ark-invest-betting-on-underdog-drone-delivery-company-manna-to-beat-out-alphabet-zipline/",
"expected_date": "2027-01-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Public announcement of Uber Eats integration with Zipline live in any US metro"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Uber drone-delivery service expands to 5+ European countries",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/next/2026/02/26/uber-is-bringing-commercial-drone-deliveries-to-ireland-and-soon-to-the-rest-of-europe",
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Uber announces drone partnership live in Denmark, Greece, Czech Republic, plus 2 more named EU markets"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2027-10-27",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2028-07-25",
"observed_
... (truncated)