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243_039predictionRoboticsAI-timing

Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
39.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2030-11-30
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Uber will work with drone delivery companies including Zipline, Sky Trax, Manna | we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243"
we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc.

Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0105
excellent
Hits / Misses
2 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-02-25hitUber-Manna drone delivery launches in Ireland (first European market)
    How: Public announcement of Uber-Manna integrated drone delivery going live
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-04-01hitManna raises $50M to expand US drone-delivery network with Uber integration upside
    How: Manna announces $50M funding round for US expansion
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
  3. 2027-01-27pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingUber-Zipline drone delivery partnership goes live (first US/global market)
    How: Public announcement of Uber Eats integration with Zipline live in any US metro
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingUber drone-delivery service expands to 5+ European countries
    How: Uber announces drone partnership live in Denmark, Greece, Czech Republic, plus 2 more named EU markets
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  6. 2027-10-27pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2028-07-25pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  8. 2028-01-01 → 2029-12-31pendingUber drone delivery hits 1M cumulative deliveries across all partners
    How: Uber Eats publishes cumulative drone delivery count >= 1,000,000 across Manna+Zipline+Wing partners
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z39.1%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 40.5% → 39.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z40.5%-3.0pp
Network propagation: 43.5% → 40.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.5%-6.0pp
Network propagation: 49.5% → 43.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.5%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 51.4% → 49.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.4%-3.6pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030
Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030
20.0%0.5500.050-0.241
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.109
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.084
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.550+0.059

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_HUMANOID_CONSUMER_2030Humanoid R3: 1M+ consumer by Nov 2030humanoid_deployment
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.600edgar_8kUber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)mentionspending2026-05-08
0.600edgar_8kUber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151)mentionspending2026-05-11
0.538edgar_8kSURF AIR MOBILITY INC. (SRFM) (CIK 0001936224)mentionspending2026-05-11

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc.",
  "verbatim": "we're uh we're talking to Keller and we work with another uh a number of drone companies, Sky Trax, Mana, etc.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Current/near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber-Manna drone delivery launches in Ireland (first European market)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://retailtechinnovationhub.com/home/2026/2/25/ireland-first-as-uber-connects-with-manna-for-first-european-launch-of-drone-delivery-service",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-25",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public announcement of Uber-Manna integrated drone delivery going live"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Manna raises $50M to expand US drone-delivery network with Uber integration upside",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://dronelife.com/2026/04/01/manna-raises-50m-to-expand-drone-delivery-network-in-the-u-s/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Manna announces $50M funding round for US expansion"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Uber-Zipline drone delivery partnership goes live (first US/global market)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://fortune.com/2026/04/09/ark-invest-betting-on-underdog-drone-delivery-company-manna-to-beat-out-alphabet-zipline/",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public announcement of Uber Eats integration with Zipline live in any US metro"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Uber drone-delivery service expands to 5+ European countries",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/next/2026/02/26/uber-is-bringing-commercial-drone-deliveries-to-ireland-and-soon-to-the-rest-of-europe",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Uber announces drone partnership live in Denmark, Greece, Czech Republic, plus 2 more named EU markets"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-10-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-25",
      "observed_
... (truncated)