By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2...

By 2050: solar PV generation costs plunge below 0.5 cents per kWh in optimal geographic locations; below 1 cent per kWh across vast majority of globe; even in poorest-irradiance/highest-regulatory-burden regions costs not exceeding 1.5 cents per kWh. 2026-2031 window is steepest cost-curve descent. | Next auction-round sub-2c/kWh clearing price

Key catalyst: Next auction-round sub-2c/kWh clearing price

Watch events: Optimal-zone utility-scale solar LCOE crossing 1.5c/kWh

Current utility-scale solar LCOE ~2-4 cents/kWh in optimal zones; Wright curve extrapolation supports sub-cent by 2045-2050.

No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Beneficiaries (19)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "<0.5c-1.5c/kWh LCOE",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Other",
  "context": "Second Naam entry. Specific long-horizon LCOE target distinct from near-term 33% framing.",
  "to_year": 2050,
  "conv_cues": "specific cost range; geographic stratification",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2050,
  "timeframe": "by 2050",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Utility-scale solar PPA clears below 2.0 cents/kWh in major Middle East/India auction (sub-2c milestone)",
      "source": "https://www.pv-magazine.com/2020/05/19/sunny-regions-could-see-one-cent-solar-within-a-decade/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "ACWA Power, Masdar, NTPC, or comparable auction in Saudi Arabia/UAE/India clears utility-scale solar PPA at <0.020/kWh (latest cleared near 0.013-0.0167/kWh in Saudi 2021/2024)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Global cumulative solar PV installed capacity crosses 5 TW",
      "source": "https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2025",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "IEA Renewables report or BloombergNEF NEO confirms global cumulative installed solar PV >=5,000 GW (was ~2 TW in 2024)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DNV/IEA/BNEF mid-century LCOE solar forecast revised downward below $0.015/kWh",
      "source": "https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/10/11/solar-pv-lcoe-expected-to-slide-to-0-021-kwh-by-2050-dnv-says/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2031-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2035-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Major energy outlook (DNV Energy Transition Outlook, IEA WEO, BNEF NEO) publishes 2050 global average solar LCOE forecast <0.015/kWh (DNV at 0.021/kWh in 2023)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First sub-1.0 cent/kWh utility-scale solar PPA cleared anywhere globally",
      "source": "https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2031-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2035-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Any utility-scale (>50 MW) solar PPA or auction publicly clears at <0.010/kWh unsubsidized in optimal-irradiance jurisdiction"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Cascade: Solar exceeds 50% of electricity generation in any G7 country for full calendar year",
      "source": "https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/progress-despite-fragmentation-the-energy-transition-to-2030/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2038-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2045-12-31",
        "from": "2032-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Ember/IEA national electricity mix data shows solar >=50% of total annual electricity generation in any G7 country (US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, Canada)"
 
... (truncated)