242_058predictionAuto/Transportautonomous

Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability

60.0%

Current probability

51.1%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-04-30 – 2040-11-30

Edges in / out

4 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Cybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets | one of my goals is can I buy, you know, 25 or 50 of them here in Santa Monica and own them, but have them going out and basically generating revenue for me

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"

one of my goals is can I buy, you know, 25 or 50 of them here in Santa Monica and own them, but have them going out and basically generating revenue for me

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.875

Brier

0.0367

excellent

Hits / Misses

10 / 0

of 15 resolved

Hit rate

66.7%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 51.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 1 fired ✓ · 8 pending

2026-04-23hitTesla Cybercab production officially begins (April 2026)
How: Tesla Q1 2026 earnings or press release confirms Cybercab continuous production start
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
2026-11-30pendingScenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026
2026-10-01 → 2027-06-30pendingTesla launches unsupervised FSD on consumer fleet
How: Tesla enables unsupervised FSD via OTA on consumer vehicles in at least one US jurisdiction
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
2026-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingTesla announces consumer Cybercab fleet-management program
How: Tesla launches official program enabling private Cybercab owners to enroll vehicles in autonomous-rideshare network with revenue share
Source: llm_enrichedconf 55%
2028-09-19pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingFirst documented Cybercab owner achieves break-even on vehicle cost via fleet revenue
How: Public case study (Bloomberg, WSJ) of an individual owner of >=10 Cybercabs reaching ROI breakeven via Tesla rideshare network
Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%
2031-02-10pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2029-01-01 → 2033-12-31pendingCybercab owner-operators >=5% of US Tesla autonomous fleet vehicles
How: Tesla discloses owner-operator share of US autonomous fleet >=5% of deployed vehicles
Source: llm_enrichedconf 45%
2033-07-03pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2035-11-24pendingCybercab owners will generate revenue via autonomous ridesharing fleets

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z51.1%-1.8pp

Network propagation: 52.9% → 51.1%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z52.9%-3.5pp

Network propagation: 56.4% → 52.9%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z56.4%-1.2pp

Network propagation: 57.6% → 56.4%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z57.6%-2.4pp

Network propagation: 60.0% → 57.6%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff	60.0%	0.600	0.050	-0.131
killer	TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict	8.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.045
killer	TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	10.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.034

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

31 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

INVZ WRD LIDR AEVA MBLY PONY OUST VRRM AMBA AUR AIOT HSAI MBGAF BIDU BMWYY GM GOOGL HMC IOT QCOM TM TSLA UBER VWAGY

Adverse (5)

MCY ALL CINF PGR TRV

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	S_ASI_SLOW_2040PLUS	ASI slow: post-2040 / soft takeoff	asi_recursive_self_improvement	—
correlate	S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026	Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026	robotaxi_deployment	—
killer	TK11	Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt)	—	—
killer	TK06	China-Taiwan Military Conflict	—	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.601	gdelt	google microsoft prove ai cloud driving ad reven.html	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.597	manifold	Will GTA VI sell more than 50 million copies by the end of 2027?	91%	mentions	pending	2026-05-24
0.594	edgar_8k	Lyft, Inc. (LYFT) (CIK 0001759509)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.593	gdelt	article ddcab03b 2b7f 5303 8341 e1e8f4863883.html	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.582	manifold	How many people will participate in my Manifest Airbnb room auction?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-04
0.580	manifold	Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?	37%	mentions	pending	2026-05-12
0.579	arxiv	GPS-Enhanced Tourist Mobility Modeling with Seasonal Spatial Priors and LLM-Based Activity Chain Generation	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28
0.571	manifold	Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028	24%	mentions	pending	2026-05-07
0.552	manifold	Will "The Owned Ones" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?	13%	mentions	pending	2026-05-12
0.541	polymarket	Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)	52%	mentions	pending	2026-06-01

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "can I buy 25 or 50 of them here in Santa Monica and own them, but have them going out and basically generating revenue for me",
  "verbatim": "one of my goals is can I buy, you know, 25 or 50 of them here in Santa Monica and own them, but have them going out and basically generating revenue for me",
  "conv_cues": "my goals",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla Cybercab production officially begins (April 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://electrek.co/2026/04/23/tesla-cybercab-production-starts-no-nhtsa-2500-vehicle-cap/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla Q1 2026 earnings or press release confirms Cybercab continuous production start"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla launches unsupervised FSD on consumer fleet",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/tesla-cybercab-unsupervised-fsd-launch-confirmed-for-2026",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-10-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla enables unsupervised FSD via OTA on consumer vehicles in at least one US jurisdiction"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla announces consumer Cybercab fleet-management program",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla launches official program enabling private Cybercab owners to enroll vehicles in autonomous-rideshare network with revenue share"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-09-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First documented Cybercab owner achieves break-even on vehicle cost via fleet revenue",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2029-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public case study (Bloomberg, WSJ) of an individual owner of >=10 Cybercabs reaching ROI breakeven via Tesla rideshare network"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2031-02-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Cyberca
... (truncated)