Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar system

Humans will become microscopic minority of intelligence on Earth and in solar system | We're likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet. Um >> yes, not even on this planet but in the solar system.

We're likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet. Um >> yes, not even on this planet but in the solar system.

Humans microscopic minority of intelligence — unfalsifiable in 5y.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (7)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5KCm_55xeQ",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "We're likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet... not even on this planet but in the solar system.",
  "verbatim": "We're likely in the very short time to become a minority than a vast minority than a microscopic minority of intelligence on this planet. Um >> yes, not even on this planet but in the solar system.",
  "conv_cues": "for sure; Yes",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "very short time (near future)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk states AI superset of single human intelligence by end-2025, all humans by 2027/2028",
      "source": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1871083864111919134 — Elon Musk X post on AI surpassing humanity",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1871083864111919134",
      "expected_date": "2024-12-25",
      "observed_date": "2024-12-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Elon Musk publicly states (e.g. via X) AI will exceed any single human's intelligence by end-2025, all humans by 2027/2028, ~100% by 2030"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk reaffirms AGI 2026-2027, superintelligence ~2030 timeline",
      "source": "https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2026/01/elon-musk-expects-true-agi-in-2026-2027-and-superintelligence-about-2030.html — NextBigFuture coverage",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2026/01/elon-musk-expects-true-agi-in-2026-2027-and-superintelligence-about-2030.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Musk reiterates his AGI 2026-2027 + superintelligence ~2030 forecast in major podcast/interview"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier AI exceeds aggregate human performance on broad benchmark suite",
      "source": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-index-2026 — Stanford AI Index 2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-index-2026",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Frontier model (GPT-5.x, Claude 5, Gemini 3) exceeds aggregate human performance on MMLU-Pro+GPQA+SWE-Bench+HLE composite, per Stanford AI Index"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-driven compute consumption reaches >1% of global electricity",
      "source": "IEA Electricity 2026 report; Stanford AI Index energy chapter",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measureme
... (truncated)