Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China through the late 2020s — serving as the deployable stopgap while small modular reactors, fuel cells, and battery arrays come online for hyperscaler 'Bring Your Own Pow...

Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China through the late 2020s — serving as the deployable stopgap while small modular reactors, fuel cells, and battery arrays come online for hyperscaler 'Bring Your Own Power' decoupling from municipal grids. | SMR first commercial deployment; firm-gas DC contracts

Key catalyst: SMR first commercial deployment; firm-gas DC contracts

Watch events: Oklo / X-energy / Kairos Power deployments; FERC gas-pipeline approvals; hyperscaler PPA disclosures

US LNG export buildout, ERCOT DC + gas-turbine pairings, Microsoft Three Mile Island restart, AWS-Talen nuclear deal (2024) confirm trajectory.

Beneficiaries (22)

Adverse (4)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "~20% new power",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Structural shift: technology firms become de-facto utilities owning generation + distribution. Accelerates the nuclear resurgence (Vogtle, Three Mile Island restart, Oklo, X-energy, NuScale).",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "conv_cues": "explicit share; structural trend",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Conditional SMR-data-center offtake pipeline grows from 25 GW to 45 GW",
      "notes": "HIT — 80% YoY growth in SMR offtake pipeline = back-end pipeline that natural gas must bridge in interim.",
      "source": "https://www.iea.org/news/data-centre-electricity-use-surged-in-2025-even-with-tightening-bottlenecks-driving-a-scramble-for-solutions",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.iea.org/news/data-centre-electricity-use-surged-in-2025-even-with-tightening-bottlenecks-driving-a-scramble-for-solutions",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Data centre operator + SMR project conditional offtake agreements total ≥45 GW vs 25 GW at end-2024"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-11",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Onsite natural gas projects represent largest near-term DC power solution in US",
      "source": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/powering-ai-energy-market-outlook-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/powering-ai-energy-market-outlook-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "IEA or Morgan Stanley confirms onsite natural gas accounts for ≥30% of new US data center power additions in 2026 or 2027"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-21",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Microsoft-Constellation Three Mile Island PPA delivers 837MW for AI data centers",
      "notes": "Restart precedent for nuclear AI power; gap until restart = window where natural gas must bridge.",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/nuclear-power-ai-data-centers-microsoft-google-amazon-2025",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/nuclear-power-ai-data-centers-microsoft-google-amazon-2025",
      "expected_date": "2028-05-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2027-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Three Mile Island Unit 1 returns to operation, supplying 837MW under PPA to Microsoft for data center power in PA/IL/VA/OH"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Natural gas share of new global ex-C
... (truncated)