VST

Vistra Corp · NYSE · USA

Cap tier

Large

Approx cap

$70.0B

Bull scenarios

Adverse scenarios

Themes & clusters

From SRC_B Theme-Company Matrix

C4Gigawatt-scale data centersHyperscaler-funded electric grid build-outNuclear power for data centersNuclear reactors (new build by AI labs)Solar power + natural gas + permitting reformfission reactors (on-site data center power)

Investment thesis

From SRC_B Company Master

IPP with biggest hyperscaler book.

Bull scenarios (15)

Predictions where this ticker benefits

Pred	Role	Domain	Prediction	Predictor	Current	Move	Impact	Status
INF_013	multi_vector	Energy	Natural gas will meet approximately 20% of the world's new power needs outside China through the late 2020s — serving as the deployable stopgap while small modular reactors, fuel cells, and battery arrays come online for hyperscaler 'Bring Your Own Pow...	Morgan Stanley	59.1%	unknown	unknown	in_progress
INF_037	multi_vector	Geopolitics	An all-out AI arms race between the US and China is inevitable — reaching superintelligence first provides a decisive unassailable economic and military advantage, analogous to early nuclear primacy.	Leopold Aschenbrenner	58.4%	unknown	unknown	in_progress
INF_070	multi_vector	Energy	Bitcoin mining will function as the ultimate "buyer of last resort" for energy producers — a perfectly elastic, location-agnostic load that absorbs excess solar output and stranded remote-nuclear power (e.g. Valar Atomics gigasites, Bloom Energy co-gen...	Leopold Aschenbrenner	56.8%	unknown	unknown	in_progress
INF_045	multi_vector	Energy	Nuclear sector will draw approximately $1.5 trillion in cumulative capital investment through 2050, increasing nuclear's share of global energy supply from ~10% currently to ~17%.	Morgan Stanley	51.1%	unknown	unknown	in_progress
INF_052	multi_vector	Energy	Alphabet has contracted for 500 megawatts from Kairos Power (KP-FHR fluoride-salt-cooled reactors) with targeted deployments by 2030 — the largest corporate advanced-fission procurement to date and a template for hyperscaler-utility-PPA scaling.	Alphabet	50.2%	unknown	unknown	in_progress
AUT_028	multi_vector	AI	Corporate boardroom plans will rapidly shift from $10 billion to $100 billion, and eventually to trillion-dollar data center clusters — unprecedented demand triggers desperate scramble for energy, straining entirety of American electricity production a...	Leopold Aschenbrenner	48.2%	unknown	unknown	in_progress
INF_056	multi_vector	Energy	Helion will supply OpenAI with 5 gigawatts of fusion electricity by 2030 (roughly 100 Helion 50-MW reactors, equivalent to ~73% of Grand Coulee Dam) — a 100x step-up from Helion's existing Microsoft commitment.	Sam Altman	45.5%	unknown	unknown	pending
INF_057	multi_vector	Energy	Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more than 7x Grand Coulee Dam output and roughly 1,000 Helion 50-MW reactors.	Sam Altman	43.4%	unknown	unknown	pending
COD_AI_002	multi_vector	AI/Compute	At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027	Codex Research Pack	39.7%	unknown	unknown	pending
INF_050	multi_vector	Energy	Within approximately 6-7 years (2031-2032), major tech companies will operate their own small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) co-located directly with AI data centers — in the hundreds-of-megawatts range, bypassing the public grid entirely.	Jensen Huang	38.7%	unknown	unknown	in_progress
INF_053	multi_vector	Energy	Valar Atomics "Nuclear Gigasite" model — clustering hundreds of identical High-Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGR) on a single remote heavily-regulated site — will emerge as the dominant deployment architecture for advanced fission, superseding scattered S...	Isaiah Taylor	28.1%	unknown	unknown	pending
INF_055	multi_vector	Energy	Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement.	Sam Altman	27.7%	unknown	unknown	pending
SPC_023	multi_vector	AI	Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c...	Sam Altman	17.9%	unknown	unknown	pending
CYB_024	multi_vector	Defense	The combination of generative AI and advanced synthetic biology is actively creating a 'ChatGPT moment' for genetic engineering — historical barriers to designing advanced, highly lethal pathogens drop precipitously; necessitating new national-security...	Eric Schmidt	16.8%	unknown	unknown	in_progress
INF_054	multi_vector	Energy	Valar HTGR gigasites will chemically store excess energy by synthesizing carbon-neutral hydrocarbon fuels from high-temperature nuclear heat — addressing a trillion-dollar TAM by decarbonizing steel, cement, and petrochemicals.	Isaiah Taylor	16.3%	unknown	unknown	pending

Adverse scenarios (0)

Predictions where this ticker is displaced

Pred	Domain	Prediction	Predictor	Current	Move	Impact	Mechanism
No adverse scenarios