COD_AI_002predictionAI/Computegigawatt-cluster

At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

52.0%

Current probability

39.7%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-10-01 – 2027-03-31

Edges in / out

2 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 39.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 6 pending

2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingVera Rubin Superchip generally available
How: NVIDIA confirms Vera Rubin Superchip 2H-2026 GA per CES 2026 announcement; OEMs (SMCI, Dell, HPE) ship Rubin-based systems to first customers
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
2026-11-01pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-12-02pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingNVIDIA Manassas GW research center reaches first-light
How: NVIDIA announces operational status of Manassas Vera Rubin NVL72 reference factory at 100MW+ capacity
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
2026-12-31pendingFirst named hyperscaler announces 1 GW Rubin cluster contract
How: Microsoft / Google / Meta / Oracle / Amazon publicly commits to single-site Vera Rubin deployment >=1 GW capacity (the $12B early-2027 deployment qualifies)
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
2027-01-02pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2027-02-02pendingAt least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027
2027-01-01 → 2027-03-31pendingFirst 1 GW Rubin cluster powered on / training run begins
How: Hyperscaler or partner discloses energization of named site at 1 GW or above with Rubin GPUs running production training workload
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
2027-07-01 → 2027-12-31pendingRubin Ultra ships in 2H 2027 (cascade event indicating GW-scale market maturation)
How: NVIDIA ships Rubin Ultra as documented at GTC 2026 roadmap; Kyber rack with 576 GPU configuration reaches general availability
Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 40%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z39.7%-1.7pp

Network propagation: 41.5% → 39.7%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z41.5%-3.5pp

Network propagation: 45.0% → 41.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.0%-7.0pp

Network propagation: 52.0% → 45.0%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027 Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	60.0%	0.520	0.050	-0.065

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

6 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (6)

CEG ETN NVDA ORCL PWR VST

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027	Compute: 1GW operational by Jun 2027	compute_scale	—
correlate	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028	Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2027-03-31	Thinking Machines/NVIDIA 1 GW Vera Rubin deployment target early 2027	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	—	mentions	pending	2026-03-16
0.568	edgar_8k	Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) (CIK 0001327567)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.559	edgar_8k	VERACYTE, INC. (VCYT) (CIK 0001384101)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-05
0.553	edgar_8k	Voyager Technologies, Inc./DE (VOYG) (CIK 0001788060)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04
0.553	edgar_8k	Voyager Technologies, Inc./DE (VOYG) (CIK 0001788060)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-04
0.553	edgar_8k	Voyager Technologies, Inc./DE (VOYG) (CIK 0001788060)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-01
0.550	edgar_8k	CISCO SYSTEMS, INC. (CSCO) (CIK 0000858877)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-13
0.542	edgar_8k	WESTERN DIGITAL CORP (WDC) (CIK 0000106040)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-03
0.541	edgar_8k	Veralto Corp (VLTO) (CIK 0001967680)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-01
0.541	edgar_8k	Veralto Corp (VLTO) (CIK 0001967680)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-14

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Vera Rubin Superchip generally available",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/rubin-platform-ai-supercomputer",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-07-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA confirms Vera Rubin Superchip 2H-2026 GA per CES 2026 announcement; OEMs (SMCI, Dell, HPE) ship Rubin-based systems to first customers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-01",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA Manassas GW research center reaches first-light",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/gigawatt-ai-factories-ocp-vera-rubin/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "NVIDIA announces operational status of Manassas Vera Rubin NVL72 reference factory at 100MW+ capacity"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First named hyperscaler announces 1 GW Rubin cluster contract",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/data-center-chips/gtc-2026-nvidia-unveils-vera-rubin-ai-platform-eyes-1t-by-2027",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Microsoft / Google / Meta / Oracle / Amazon publicly commits to single-site Vera Rubin deployment >=1 GW capacity (the $12B early-2027 deployment qualifies)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "At least one 1 GW Vera Rubin frontier-training cluster reaches deployment by Q1 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "COD_AI_002",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First 1 GW Rubin cluster powered on / training run begins",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.datacenterknowledge.com/data-center-chips/gtc-2026-nvidia-unveils-vera-rubin-ai-platform-eyes-1t-by-2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-02-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Hyperscaler or partner discloses energization of named site at 1 GW or above with Rubin GPUs running production training workload"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_
... (truncated)