Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more than 7x Grand Coulee Dam output and roughly 1,000 Helion 50-MW reactors.

Helion will scale to 50 gigawatts of fusion-generated power to OpenAI by 2035 — equivalent to more than 7x Grand Coulee Dam output and roughly 1,000 Helion 50-MW reactors. | Helion first commercial reactor beyond Orion

Key catalyst: Helion first commercial reactor beyond Orion

Watch events: Helion path-to-breakeven; manufacturing scale-up announcements

Industry consensus: no fusion company has credibly modeled 1,000-reactor manufacturing scale-up within 10 years. Target exists mainly as framework-aspirational ceiling.

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Beneficiaries (22)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "50 GW",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-CEO",
  "context": "Upper end of reported framework (12.5% of Helion capacity = 50 GW). Represents the most extreme fusion commercialization timeline publicly negotiated.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "conv_cues": "conditional framework; 10-year horizon",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2035,
  "timeframe": "by 2035",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helion Polaris reaches commercial-grade plasma temperature (200M C)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/13/fusion-startup-helion-hits-blistering-temps-as-it-races-toward-2028-deadline/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Helion press release or peer-reviewed paper documenting Polaris achieving >=200 million degrees Celsius"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI-Helion 5GW PPA agreement formally signed",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/23/sam-altman-openai-fusion-energy-board-helion/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Definitive long-term power purchase agreement publicly disclosed by OpenAI or Helion for >=5GW"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.7,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "S_GRID_50GW_2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028",
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helion first commercial reactor delivers 50MW to Microsoft (target 2028)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/helion-begins-work-at-fusion-plant-expects-to-deliver-power-to-microsoft-by-2028/",
      "expected_date": "2029-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Microsoft confirms Helion-supplied power flowing under PPA at >=50MW"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helion 5GW deployment milestone (target 2030)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.2,
      "source_url": "https://www.edgen.tech/news/post/openai-negotiates-5gw-helion-fusion-power-deal",
      "expected_date": "2031-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2032-12-31",
        "from": "2030-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Independent confirmation that Helion has commissioned >=5GW of operational fusion capacity"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Helion fleet count >=100 reactors operational",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": 
... (truncated)