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SPC_023predictionAIAltman-roadmap-2030-2036

Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c...

Predictor: Sam Altman

Prior probability
18.0%
Current probability
17.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
pending
Window
2030-01-01 – 2036-11-30
Edges in / out
5 / 0
Tickers exposed
28

Prediction text

Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) achieve mass viability. | Helion first commercial kWh delivery

Key catalyst: Helion first commercial kWh delivery

Watch events: Helion Orion plant delivery; physics breakthrough candidates; first commercial BCI

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Altman medium/podcast essays 2025-2026 articulate this roadmap. Helion 2028 fusion target public; 2034 physics / 2035 space / 2036 BCI are aspirational but-internally-consistent dates.

Predictor: Sam Altman

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0625
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Sam Altman is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

2 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 18%2026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 17.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 11 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingAltman publishes follow-up roadmap update or 'Gentle Singularity' sequel
    How: Altman blog post, OpenAI corporate communication, or major interview restates or revises the 2030/2034/2035/2036 milestone roadmap with measurable specificity
    Source: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularityconf 85%
  2. 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingHelion delivers first commercial fusion electricity to Microsoft per 2028 PPA
    How: Helion Energy and Microsoft jointly confirm first commercial fusion kWh delivery from Orion plant in Malaga, WA, per 50MW 2028 PPA
    Source: https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-worlds-first-fusion-ppa-with-microsoft/conf 40%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingCommercial BCI human-trial enrollment or regulatory milestone
    How: Neuralink, Synchron, Precision Neuroscience, or competitor announces commercial-tier BCI deployment milestone (FDA approval, or first paying customer outside trial)
    Source: https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/sam-altman-ai-vision-future/conf 45%
  4. 2028-12-31 → 2031-12-31pendingCascade: Helion fusion plant fails to deliver by 2028, slipping >2 years
    How: Helion publicly delays first commercial fusion delivery past 2030, OR Microsoft amends/cancels 2028 PPA — DISCONFIRMING signal for Altman's 2030 abundant-energy node
    Source: https://fortune.com/2025/05/07/nuclear-fusion-energy-ai-sam-altman-helion-pacific-commonwealth-timelines/conf 50%
  5. 2029-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingOpenAI/Helion completes 5GW fusion supply deal commitment by 2030 milestone
    How: Helion delivers contracted 5 GW capacity to OpenAI per March 2026 deal terms, OR public revision of timeline by Altman/OpenAI
    Source: https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/23/sam-altman-openai-fusion-energy-board-helion/conf 35%
  6. 2031-04-13pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  7. 2032-07-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  8. 2033-11-04pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  9. 2032-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingAI system claimed by frontier lab to have made novel high-energy physics discovery (2034 milestone test)
    How: Peer-reviewed Nature/Science/PRL publication of novel high-energy physics result with AI attributed as primary discovery agent (not just analysis tool)
    Source: https://medium.com/@celestineriza/sam-altmans-10-predictions-that-will-reshape-the-next-3-years-717fe5dc20d5conf 30%

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 18%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z17.9%+1.2pp
Network propagation: 16.7% → 17.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z16.7%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 18.0% → 16.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.180-0.045
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.180-0.015
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.180-0.015

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

28 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

FCELXEOKLOCRWVLEULTBRWULFBLDPNNESMREQIXAEPAMZNBECEGDGEVGOOGLMETAMSFTRYCEYVST

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_HUMANOID_MASS_2033Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033humanoid_deployment
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (3)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.660manifoldWhich Starship Variants will fly before 2032mentionspending2026-05-06
0.569manifoldSam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 203011%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.565manifoldLLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 202742%mentionspending2026-04-26

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-CEO",
  "context": "Integrated Altman long-horizon roadmap. Distinct from AI_001 (ASI 2030 all-domain), INF_055-057 (Helion specifics), CMQ_001-002 (intern/researcher). Specific physics-2034 and space-2035 claims are new.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "conv_cues": "CEO FIRST_PERSON; specific dated chronology",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2030,
  "timeframe": "2030-2036",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Altman publishes follow-up roadmap update or 'Gentle Singularity' sequel",
      "source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2028-03-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Altman blog post, OpenAI corporate communication, or major interview restates or revises the 2030/2034/2035/2036 milestone roadmap with measurable specificity"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helion delivers first commercial fusion electricity to Microsoft per 2028 PPA",
      "source": "https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-worlds-first-fusion-ppa-with-microsoft/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2029-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Helion Energy and Microsoft jointly confirm first commercial fusion kWh delivery from Orion plant in Malaga, WA, per 50MW 2028 PPA"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Commercial BCI human-trial enrollment or regulatory milestone",
      "source": "https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/sam-altman-ai-vision-future/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2029-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2032-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Neuralink, Synchron, Precision Neuroscience, or competitor announces commercial-tier BCI deployment milestone (FDA approval, or first paying customer outside trial)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Cascade: Helion fusion plant fails to deliver by 2028, slipping >2 years",
      "source": "https://fortune.com/2025/05/07/nuclear-fusion-energy-ai-sam-altman-helion-pacific-commonwealth-timelines/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2030-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2031-12-31",
        "from": "2028-12-31"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Helion publicly delays first commercial fusion delivery past 2030, OR Microsoft amends/cancels 2028 PPA — DISCONFIRMING signal for Altman's 2030 abundant-energy node"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI/Helion completes 5GW fusion supply deal commitment by 2030 milestone",
      "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/23/sam-altman-openai-fusion-energy-board-helion/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "expected_date": "2030-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2031-12-31",
        "from": "2029-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Helion delivers contracted 5 GW capacity to OpenAI per March 2026 deal terms, OR public revision of timeline by Altman/OpenAI"
    
... (truncated)