Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-c...
Predictor: Sam Altman
Prediction text
Altman's specific chronological roadmap: 2030 'wildly abundant' intelligence + energy (unlocked via AI + Helion fusion 2028) → 2034 humanity mathematically cracks high-energy physics → 2035 space colonization begins in earnest → 2036 commercial brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) achieve mass viability. | Helion first commercial kWh delivery
Key catalyst: Helion first commercial kWh delivery
Watch events: Helion Orion plant delivery; physics breakthrough candidates; first commercial BCI
Resolution evidence
Altman medium/podcast essays 2025-2026 articulate this roadmap. Helion 2028 fusion target public; 2034 physics / 2035 space / 2036 BCI are aspirational but-internally-consistent dates.
Predictor: Sam Altman
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Sam Altman is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingAltman publishes follow-up roadmap update or 'Gentle Singularity' sequelHow: Altman blog post, OpenAI corporate communication, or major interview restates or revises the 2030/2034/2035/2036 milestone roadmap with measurable specificitySource: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularityconf 85%
- 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingHelion delivers first commercial fusion electricity to Microsoft per 2028 PPAHow: Helion Energy and Microsoft jointly confirm first commercial fusion kWh delivery from Orion plant in Malaga, WA, per 50MW 2028 PPASource: https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-worlds-first-fusion-ppa-with-microsoft/conf 40%
- 2027-01-01 → 2032-12-31pendingCommercial BCI human-trial enrollment or regulatory milestoneHow: Neuralink, Synchron, Precision Neuroscience, or competitor announces commercial-tier BCI deployment milestone (FDA approval, or first paying customer outside trial)Source: https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/sam-altman-ai-vision-future/conf 45%
- 2028-12-31 → 2031-12-31pendingCascade: Helion fusion plant fails to deliver by 2028, slipping >2 yearsHow: Helion publicly delays first commercial fusion delivery past 2030, OR Microsoft amends/cancels 2028 PPA — DISCONFIRMING signal for Altman's 2030 abundant-energy nodeSource: https://fortune.com/2025/05/07/nuclear-fusion-energy-ai-sam-altman-helion-pacific-commonwealth-timelines/conf 50%
- 2029-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingOpenAI/Helion completes 5GW fusion supply deal commitment by 2030 milestoneHow: Helion delivers contracted 5 GW capacity to OpenAI per March 2026 deal terms, OR public revision of timeline by Altman/OpenAISource: https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/23/sam-altman-openai-fusion-energy-board-helion/conf 35%
- 2031-04-13pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2032-07-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2033-11-04pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2032-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingAI system claimed by frontier lab to have made novel high-energy physics discovery (2034 milestone test)How: Peer-reviewed Nature/Science/PRL publication of novel high-energy physics result with AI attributed as primary discovery agent (not just analysis tool)Source: https://medium.com/@celestineriza/sam-altmans-10-predictions-that-will-reshape-the-next-3-years-717fe5dc20d5conf 30%
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (22)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 | AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | — |
| correlate | S_HUMANOID_MASS_2033 | Humanoid R4: 10M+ cumulative by Dec 2033 | humanoid_deployment | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (3)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.660 | manifold | Which Starship Variants will fly before 2032 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.569 | manifold | Sam Altman is imprisoned for a crime before 2030 | 11% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.565 | manifold | LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027 | 42% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-26 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Cited-CEO",
"context": "Integrated Altman long-horizon roadmap. Distinct from AI_001 (ASI 2030 all-domain), INF_055-057 (Helion specifics), CMQ_001-002 (intern/researcher). Specific physics-2034 and space-2035 claims are new.",
"to_year": 2036,
"conv_cues": "CEO FIRST_PERSON; specific dated chronology",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2030,
"timeframe": "2030-2036",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Altman publishes follow-up roadmap update or 'Gentle Singularity' sequel",
"source": "https://blog.samaltman.com/the-gentle-singularity",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"expected_date": "2028-03-16",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2029-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Altman blog post, OpenAI corporate communication, or major interview restates or revises the 2030/2034/2035/2036 milestone roadmap with measurable specificity"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helion delivers first commercial fusion electricity to Microsoft per 2028 PPA",
"source": "https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-worlds-first-fusion-ppa-with-microsoft/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2029-07-01",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2030-12-31",
"from": "2028-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Helion Energy and Microsoft jointly confirm first commercial fusion kWh delivery from Orion plant in Malaga, WA, per 50MW 2028 PPA"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Commercial BCI human-trial enrollment or regulatory milestone",
"source": "https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/sam-altman-ai-vision-future/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"expected_date": "2029-12-31",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2032-12-31",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Neuralink, Synchron, Precision Neuroscience, or competitor announces commercial-tier BCI deployment milestone (FDA approval, or first paying customer outside trial)"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Cascade: Helion fusion plant fails to deliver by 2028, slipping >2 years",
"source": "https://fortune.com/2025/05/07/nuclear-fusion-energy-ai-sam-altman-helion-pacific-commonwealth-timelines/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_date": "2030-07-01",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2031-12-31",
"from": "2028-12-31"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Helion publicly delays first commercial fusion delivery past 2030, OR Microsoft amends/cancels 2028 PPA — DISCONFIRMING signal for Altman's 2030 abundant-energy node"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI/Helion completes 5GW fusion supply deal commitment by 2030 milestone",
"source": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/23/sam-altman-openai-fusion-energy-board-helion/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.35,
"expected_date": "2030-07-02",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2031-12-31",
"from": "2029-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Helion delivers contracted 5 GW capacity to OpenAI per March 2026 deal terms, OR public revision of timeline by Altman/OpenAI"
... (truncated)