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INF_055predictionEnergyfusion-commercial-debut

Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement.

Predictor: Sam Altman

Prior probability
28.0%
Current probability
27.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
2 / 0
Tickers exposed
28

Prediction text

Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement. | Helion scientific breakeven announcement

Key catalyst: Helion scientific breakeven announcement

Watch events: Polaris Q-factor disclosures; Orion groundbreaking; Helion first grid electricity

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Helion Polaris 7th-gen prototype achieved 150M °C Feb 2026; Microsoft 2023 PPA publicly binding; Malaga, WA site under development. 2028 timeline considered aggressive by most fusion researchers.

Predictor: Sam Altman

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0625
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Sam Altman is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 28%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 27.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending
  1. 2025-07-30hitHelion secures land and breaks ground on Orion fusion plant in Malaga WA
    How: Helion publicly announces start of construction at the Malaga WA Orion site
    Source: S&P Global - Helion Energy breaks ground on fusion power plant slated to be online in 2028conf 99%
    Notes: HIT - Helion publicly broke ground at the Malaga WA site in July 2025.
  2. 2025-10-31hitHelion granted Conditional Use Permit for High Impact Utility Facility
    How: Chelan County issues Conditional Use Permit allowing fusion power generation at Orion site
    Source: Helion Energy - Approvals for next phase of construction announcementconf 99%
  3. 2025-10-01 → 2026-09-30overdueHelion Polaris test reactor demonstrates first electricity generation
    How: Helion publicly demonstrates net or gross electricity production from its Polaris test reactor
    Source: Helion Energy public statements / Datacenter Dynamicsconf 55%
    Notes: Helion stated it remains on track for electricity generation from Polaris in 2025 - has slipped, now an open near-term test.
  4. 2026-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingHelion completes follow-on funding round to scale Orion construction
    How: Helion announces 300M USD or larger follow-on raise to fund Orion build-out through 2028 commissioning
    Source: Helion Energy - 425M USD Series F announcementconf 65%
  5. 2028-02-27pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  6. 2028-04-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2027-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingHelion delivers first MW of fusion electricity to Microsoft via PPA
    How: First measurable kWh of fusion-generated electricity delivered under the Helion-Microsoft PPA marketed by Constellation
    Source: Helion-Microsoft PPA announcementconf 30%
    Notes: Cascade - direct event resolution. Industry consensus views 50 MW by 2028 as aggressive even after groundbreaking.
  8. 2028-06-20pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 28%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z27.7%+1.3pp
Network propagation: 26.4% → 27.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z26.4%+2.4pp
Network propagation: 24.0% → 26.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z24.0%+4.3pp
Network propagation: 19.8% → 24.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z19.8%-2.1pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.198 blend=0.198 LLR=-0.130 κ=0.58 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.5833,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Sam Altman",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -1.2711187207953243,
  "bayes_factor": "1.1:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.21906580568404876,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.3208150000000001,
      "label": "Helion Polaris test reactor demonstrates first electricity generation",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/helion-begins-work-at-fusion-plant-expects-to-deliver-power-to-microsoft-by-2028/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.13007928865772078,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "measurement_criterion": "Helion publicly demonstrates net or gross electricity production from its Polaris test reactor"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.19762607425399392,
  "posterior_logit": -1.401198009453045,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0625,
  "inside_posterior": 0.19762607425399392,
  "blended_posterior": 0.19762607425399392,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.13007928865772078,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 1
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z21.9%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 23.9% → 21.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z23.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 28.0% → 23.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.280-0.077

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

28 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

FCELXEOKLOCRWVLEULTBRWULFBLDPNNESMREQIXAEPAMZNBECEGDGEVGOOGLMETAMSFTRYCEYVST

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202950GW grid expansion by Dec 2029energy_grid_expansion
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-12-31[Energy/Regulation 2028-12] ings; transformer supply chain recovery [INF_055] Polaris Q-factor disclosures; Orion groundbreaking; Helion first grid electricitypending

Linked documents (4)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.600gdeltsolaris energy infrastructure inc q1 123000690.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.575edgar_8kHELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795)mentionspending2026-05-11
0.560edgar_8kFIRST SOLAR, INC. (FSLR) (CIK 0001274494)mentionspending2026-04-30
0.560edgar_8kFIRST SOLAR, INC. (FSLR) (CIK 0001274494)mentionspending2026-05-15

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "50 MW",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-CEO",
  "context": "Altman has personally invested $375M in Helion. Pulsed magneto-inertial (non-ignition) architecture; deuterium-helium-3 fuel. Timeline drawing intense skepticism from ITER-tradition physicists, but Polaris prototype reached 150 million °C plasma Feb 2026.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "conv_cues": "named plant; specific customer; explicit year",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "by 2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helion secures land and breaks ground on Orion fusion plant in Malaga WA",
      "notes": "HIT - Helion publicly broke ground at the Malaga WA site in July 2025.",
      "source": "S&P Global - Helion Energy breaks ground on fusion power plant slated to be online in 2028",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/073025-helion-energy-breaks-ground-on-fusion-power-plant-slated-to-be-online-in-2028",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Helion publicly announces start of construction at the Malaga WA Orion site"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helion granted Conditional Use Permit for High Impact Utility Facility",
      "source": "Helion Energy - Approvals for next phase of construction announcement",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-receives-approvals-for-next-phase-of-construction-of-worlds-first-commercial-fusion-power-plant/",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Chelan County issues Conditional Use Permit allowing fusion power generation at Orion site"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helion Polaris test reactor demonstrates first electricity generation",
      "notes": "Helion stated it remains on track for electricity generation from Polaris in 2025 - has slipped, now an open near-term test.",
      "source": "Helion Energy public statements / Datacenter Dynamics",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/helion-begins-work-at-fusion-plant-expects-to-deliver-power-to-microsoft-by-2028/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2025-10-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Helion publicly demonstrates net or gross electricity production from its Polaris test reactor"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Helion completes follow-on funding round to scale Orion construction",
      "source": "Helion Energy - 425M USD Series F announcement",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-425m-series-f-investment-to-scale-commercialized-fusion-power/",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Helion announces 300M USD or larger follow-on raise to fund Orion build-out through 2028 commissioning"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkp
... (truncated)