Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement.
Predictor: Sam Altman
Prediction text
Helion Energy will deliver the world's first commercial fusion electricity — the 50 MW Orion plant in Malaga, Washington — to Microsoft by 2028 under the industry's first fusion power-purchase agreement. | Helion scientific breakeven announcement
Key catalyst: Helion scientific breakeven announcement
Watch events: Polaris Q-factor disclosures; Orion groundbreaking; Helion first grid electricity
Resolution evidence
Helion Polaris 7th-gen prototype achieved 150M °C Feb 2026; Microsoft 2023 PPA publicly binding; Malaga, WA site under development. 2028 timeline considered aggressive by most fusion researchers.
Predictor: Sam Altman
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Sam Altman is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-07-30hitHelion secures land and breaks ground on Orion fusion plant in Malaga WAHow: Helion publicly announces start of construction at the Malaga WA Orion siteSource: S&P Global - Helion Energy breaks ground on fusion power plant slated to be online in 2028conf 99%Notes: HIT - Helion publicly broke ground at the Malaga WA site in July 2025.
- 2025-10-31hitHelion granted Conditional Use Permit for High Impact Utility FacilityHow: Chelan County issues Conditional Use Permit allowing fusion power generation at Orion siteSource: Helion Energy - Approvals for next phase of construction announcementconf 99%
- 2025-10-01 → 2026-09-30overdueHelion Polaris test reactor demonstrates first electricity generationHow: Helion publicly demonstrates net or gross electricity production from its Polaris test reactorSource: Helion Energy public statements / Datacenter Dynamicsconf 55%Notes: Helion stated it remains on track for electricity generation from Polaris in 2025 - has slipped, now an open near-term test.
- 2026-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingHelion completes follow-on funding round to scale Orion constructionHow: Helion announces 300M USD or larger follow-on raise to fund Orion build-out through 2028 commissioningSource: Helion Energy - 425M USD Series F announcementconf 65%
- 2028-02-27pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2028-04-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingHelion delivers first MW of fusion electricity to Microsoft via PPAHow: First measurable kWh of fusion-generated electricity delivered under the Helion-Microsoft PPA marketed by ConstellationSource: Helion-Microsoft PPA announcementconf 30%Notes: Cascade - direct event resolution. Industry consensus views 50 MW by 2028 as aggressive even after groundbreaking.
- 2028-06-20pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 1,
"kappa": 0.5833,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Sam Altman",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -1.2711187207953243,
"bayes_factor": "1.1:1 against",
"blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
"inside_prior": 0.21906580568404876,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": false,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.3208150000000001,
"label": "Helion Polaris test reactor demonstrates first electricity generation",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/helion-begins-work-at-fusion-plant-expects-to-deliver-power-to-microsoft-by-2028/",
"adjusted_llr": -0.13007928865772078,
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"measurement_criterion": "Helion publicly demonstrates net or gross electricity production from its Polaris test reactor"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3,
"outside_weight": 0.7,
"posterior_prob": 0.19762607425399392,
"posterior_logit": -1.401198009453045,
"predictor_brier": 0.0625,
"inside_posterior": 0.19762607425399392,
"blended_posterior": 0.19762607425399392,
"reference_class_id": null,
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.13007928865772078,
"predictor_n_resolved": 1
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.280 | -0.077 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (22)
Prerequisites (2)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2029 | 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-12-31 | [Energy/Regulation 2028-12] ings; transformer supply chain recovery [INF_055] Polaris Q-factor disclosures; Orion groundbreaking; Helion first grid electricity | pending |
Linked documents (4)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.600 | gdelt | solaris energy infrastructure inc q1 123000690.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.575 | edgar_8k | HELIOS TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (HLIO) (CIK 0001024795) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.560 | edgar_8k | FIRST SOLAR, INC. (FSLR) (CIK 0001274494) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.560 | edgar_8k | FIRST SOLAR, INC. (FSLR) (CIK 0001274494) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "50 MW",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Cited-CEO",
"context": "Altman has personally invested $375M in Helion. Pulsed magneto-inertial (non-ignition) architecture; deuterium-helium-3 fuel. Timeline drawing intense skepticism from ITER-tradition physicists, but Polaris prototype reached 150 million °C plasma Feb 2026.",
"to_year": 2028,
"conv_cues": "named plant; specific customer; explicit year",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2028,
"timeframe": "by 2028",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helion secures land and breaks ground on Orion fusion plant in Malaga WA",
"notes": "HIT - Helion publicly broke ground at the Malaga WA site in July 2025.",
"source": "S&P Global - Helion Energy breaks ground on fusion power plant slated to be online in 2028",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/073025-helion-energy-breaks-ground-on-fusion-power-plant-slated-to-be-online-in-2028",
"expected_date": "2025-07-30",
"observed_date": "2025-07-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Helion publicly announces start of construction at the Malaga WA Orion site"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helion granted Conditional Use Permit for High Impact Utility Facility",
"source": "Helion Energy - Approvals for next phase of construction announcement",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-receives-approvals-for-next-phase-of-construction-of-worlds-first-commercial-fusion-power-plant/",
"expected_date": "2025-10-31",
"observed_date": "2025-10-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Chelan County issues Conditional Use Permit allowing fusion power generation at Orion site"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helion Polaris test reactor demonstrates first electricity generation",
"notes": "Helion stated it remains on track for electricity generation from Polaris in 2025 - has slipped, now an open near-term test.",
"source": "Helion Energy public statements / Datacenter Dynamics",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/helion-begins-work-at-fusion-plant-expects-to-deliver-power-to-microsoft-by-2028/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-09-30",
"from": "2025-10-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Helion publicly demonstrates net or gross electricity production from its Polaris test reactor"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Helion completes follow-on funding round to scale Orion construction",
"source": "Helion Energy - 425M USD Series F announcement",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-425m-series-f-investment-to-scale-commercialized-fusion-power/",
"expected_date": "2026-09-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Helion announces 300M USD or larger follow-on raise to fund Orion build-out through 2028 commissioning"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkp
... (truncated)