Autonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come down

Autonomous will become a very big part of developed markets, cost curves will come down | the cost curves are going to come down. And you will see autonomous become a very very big part of developed markets

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

the cost curves are going to come down. And you will see autonomous become a very very big part of developed markets

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "the cost curves are going to come down. And you will see autonomous become a very very big part of developed markets",
  "verbatim": "the cost curves are going to come down. And you will see autonomous become a very very big part of developed markets",
  "conv_cues": "going to come down; will see",
  "direction": "UP",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Robotaxi cost-per-mile to consumer falls below $1.50 in any US market",
      "source": "Tesla Cybercab $4.20 ride floor Austin 2026 / Cost-curve thesis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://timewell.jp/en/columns/tesla-cybercab",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public pricing data (Waymo One app, Tesla Robotaxi app, Zoox app) shows median per-mile fare <$1.50 over 30-day rolling sample in SF, Phoenix, Austin, or LA; exclude promo pricing"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Driverless rides exceed 1% of total US rideshare market share",
      "source": "Waymo 450K weekly rides + Tesla expansion trajectory",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.thedriverlessdigest.com/p/waymos-2025-year-in-review-the-year",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Aggregate Waymo+Tesla+others driverless ride count divided by Uber+Lyft+Waymo+Tesla total US rideshare exceeds 1% on monthly basis; Edison Trends or YipitData verification"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Industry body or McKinsey publishes 'autonomous adoption curve >50% in developed markets by 2035' study",
      "source": "Cost-curve declination thesis / S&P Global robotaxi report",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.spglobal.com/automotive-insights/en/blogs/2025/09/autonomous-driving-expands-to-europe-and-middle-east",
      "expected_date": "2028-04-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-08-25",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tier-1 consultancy or NHTSA-cited study claims >=50% of new urban miles in OECD markets will be AV by 2035; appears in NYT/WSJ/FT coverage"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-10-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo or Tesla operates commercial robotaxi service in 4+ countries outside US",
      "source": "Waymo 20+ city 2026 plan (Tokyo, London)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.eweek.com/news/waymo-16-billion-robotaxi-expansion-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_resea
... (truncated)