Fewer and fewer drivers on the road, like fewer people knowing how to ride a horse

Fewer and fewer drivers on the road, like fewer people knowing how to ride a horse | But I can definitely see a future where you know, there're going to be fewer and fewer drivers on the road. Just like there are less people who know how to ride a horse.

But I can definitely see a future where you know, there're going to be fewer and fewer drivers on the road. Just like there are less people who know how to ride a horse.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "But I can definitely see a future where you know, there're going to be fewer and fewer drivers on the road. Just like there are less people who know how to ride a horse.",
  "verbatim": "But I can definitely see a future where you know, there're going to be fewer and fewer drivers on the road. Just like there are less people who know how to ride a horse.",
  "conv_cues": "I can definitely see",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "timeframe": "Unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-28",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First US state passes legislation reducing driver-license testing or relaxing requirements due to AV adoption",
      "source": "Long-tail cultural/regulatory signal of fewer drivers",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "source_url": "https://environmentalhealthsafetybrief.sidley.com/2026/03/04/a-new-global-milestone-for-autonomous-vehicles-what-the-un-global-technical-regulation-on-automated-driving-systems-means-for-autonomy-in-the-u-s-and-around-the-world/",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-08-27",
        "from": "2026-04-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "State legislative bill passes (CA, TX, AZ, FL most likely) explicitly citing autonomous vehicle adoption as rationale for license-testing reform; covered in Reuters/Politico"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Major US insurer launches 'driver-optional' or 'no-driver' policy product",
      "source": "Cascade signal of cultural/economic shift",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/05/autonomous-vehicles-technology-future/",
      "expected_date": "2028-04-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-08-27",
        "from": "2026-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Top-10 US auto insurer (State Farm, Geico, Progressive, Allstate, etc.) files insurance product with state regulators specifically for households with primary AV usage and no licensed driver"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-10-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "US driver's license issuance rate to 16-19 year olds drops below 60%",
      "source": "Long-running trend observable in FHWA data, accelerated by AV availability",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/05/autonomous-vehicles-technology-future/",
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Federal Highway Administration data shows licensure rate for 16-19yo cohort below 60% (was ~63% in 2022, declining trend); annual FHWA Highway Statistics report"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Driverless mile
... (truncated)