Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 2026-2031+; precipitous decline drives solar to ~1/3 of all global electricity generation. Wright's Law mathematical certainty applied to silicon PV + lithium-ion storage + elect...

Fundamental cost of clean electricity drops by another multiple of 4 over 2026-2031+; precipitous decline drives solar to ~1/3 of all global electricity generation. Wright's Law mathematical certainty applied to silicon PV + lithium-ion storage + electric transport. 2026-2031 window is steepest part of adoption curve where legacy power plants face sudden insurmountable economic pressure. | Solar 15% global generation threshold crossing

Key catalyst: Solar 15% global generation threshold crossing

Watch events: IEA WEO solar generation share; BNEF LCOE tracking

Naam 2011 solar-10x-by-2050 achieved decades ahead of schedule; Wright curve empirically persistent. Solar currently ~6-7% global generation; 33% by 2031 aggressive but tractable.

No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Beneficiaries (23)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "4x cost reduction; 33% of generation",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Other",
  "context": "First Naam entry. Wright's-Law-applied-to-energy signature forecast. Couples with INF_xxx energy cluster, 240_034 (MS 13-40GW), INF_012 (126 GW annual growth).",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "conv_cues": "futurist FIRST_PERSON; mathematical Wright's Law basis",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2031",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Solar PV reaches 8% global electricity generation",
      "notes": "HIT — confirmed by IEA 2026 review; on trajectory to 15% by 2030.",
      "source": "IEA Global Energy Review 2026: solar posted record 600 TWh increase in 2025, total ~2,700 TWh, share over 8%",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2026/electricity-supply",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "IEA Global Energy Review reports solar PV share of global electricity generation crosses 8% (from 2,700 TWh / total ~33,000 TWh)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "IEA forecasts solar share crosses 15% by 2030 reaffirmed",
      "source": "IEA Electricity 2026 supply analysis: solar share to almost double to 15% by 2030",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026/supply",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "IEA Electricity 2026 or Renewables 2026 reaffirms forecast of solar PV share doubling to ~15% by 2030"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-14",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Solar LCOE crosses below $0.030/kWh global average",
      "notes": "4x cost decline vs 2026 base of $0.043 implies ~$0.011 by 2031 — a sub-$0.030 milestone is interim checkpoint.",
      "source": "IRENA 2024: $0.043/kWh down from $0.460/kWh in 2010 (90% decline since 2010); 4x further decline implies sub-$0.011/kWh by 2031",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2025/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_in_2024_Summary_2025.pdf",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "IRENA annual Renewable Power Generation Costs report shows global weighted-average utility-scale solar LCOE below $0.030/kWh"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-03-30",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Lithium-ion battery storage LCOS crosses below $0.05/kWh",
      "notes": "Storage cost is the gating constraint for solar to reach ~33% of generation.",
      "source": "BNEF Battery Price Survey 2024: cells $115/kWh down 20% YoY; pack $139/kWh; trajectory to <$0.05/kWh LCOS by late decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "expected_date": "2028-07-01",
      "research_origin": "trainin
... (truncated)