AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion.

AI will quintuple the world's gross domestic product, expanding it from $100 trillion to $500 trillion. | Global productivity growth disclosures

Key catalyst: Global productivity growth disclosures

Watch events: IMF World Economic Outlook revisions; productivity growth data from major economies

IMF base case: world GDP ~$110T 2026 → ~$145T 2030. 5x expansion to $500T requires non-linear AI-driven productivity breakout 20+ years ahead of IMF/World Bank/OECD projections.

No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (5)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$500T world GDP",
  "mode": "PROPHECY",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Huang's macroeconomic projection: AI tethered to Nvidia silicon will drive 5x GDP expansion.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "conv_cues": "quintuple; predicts",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "decade",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-01-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI capex exceeds $2T cumulative since 2024",
      "source": "Hyperscaler capex run-rate ~$400B/yr 2025",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2028-09-29",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Combined hyperscaler + sovereign AI capex (per JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, or SemiAnalysis tracking) exceeds $2T cumulative since 2024 baseline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Total factor productivity growth in advanced economies sustains >=3% annualized for 4+ quarters",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs '1.5pp annualized' productivity boost projection",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/ai-may-start-to-boost-us-gdp-in-2027",
      "expected_date": "2029-03-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-06-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OECD/Conference Board/BEA TFP growth in US/EU/Japan/UK averages >=3% annualized over 4+ consecutive quarters (vs ~1% baseline)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Global GDP measurement revised upward >=3% from 2025 projection due to AI",
      "source": "IMF WEO baselines; PwC $15.7T by 2030 estimate",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2029-07-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "IMF WEO or World Bank cuts global GDP projection upward by >=3% (cumulative) over 5-year horizon vs Jan-2025 baseline, explicitly citing AI productivity contribution"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2030-01-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: No NBER recession through 2031",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "S_NO_RECESSION_5Y",
      "expected_date": "2031-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "5x GDP scenarios become standard high-side projection in IMF/OECD/BIS long-horizon outlooks",
      "source": "Erik Brynjolfsson AI growth scenarios; AI-2027 economic projections",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.2,
      "expected_date": "2032-01-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2033-12-31",
        "from": "2030-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least 2 of (IMF, OECD, BIS) annual outlooks explicitly include >=$300T global GDP scenario as a high-side baseline by 2040, with AI named as primary d
... (truncated)