Cost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous proliferates
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi · ep#243 "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243" · source
Prediction text
Cost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous proliferates | As these cars proliferate, the cost of autonomous is going to the cost per trip is going to come down. Safety per trip is absolutely going to come up.
Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules
Verbatim quote
As these cars proliferate, the cost of autonomous is going to the cost per trip is going to come down. Safety per trip is absolutely going to come up.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2027-02-26pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2027-12-25pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2028-10-22pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | 30.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.254 |
| killer | TK06 China-Taiwan Military Conflict | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.118 |
| killer | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.106 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (3)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 | Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzKVYNBg50E",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "As these cars proliferate, the cost of autonomous is going to the cost per trip is going to come down. Safety per trip is absolutely going to come up.",
"verbatim": "As these cars proliferate, the cost of autonomous is going to the cost per trip is going to come down. Safety per trip is absolutely going to come up.",
"conv_cues": "absolutely going to",
"direction": "MIXED",
"timeframe": "As cars proliferate",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
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"observed_date": null
},
{
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"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2028-10-22",
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},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Cost per trip will come down and safety per trip will come up as autonomous proliferates",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "243_022",
"expected_date": "2029-08-21",
"observed_date": null
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"sub_domain": "Transport",
"affiliation": "Uber",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 243,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"display_date": "2029-08-21",
"episode_date": "2026-03-31",
"parse_method": "UNMAPPABLE",
"domain_bucket": "Auto",
"episode_title": "Uber vs. Tesla, Robotaxi Timelines, and the End of Human Driving | Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | #243",
"fault_line_id": "F005, F006",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": false,
"appears_in_eps": "243",
"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 1,
"priority_weight": 4,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C9"
],
"active_end_month": 0,
"recent_statement": "April 2 2026 Moonshots: Uber cash flow $10B in 2026. 15 cities with autonomous partners by end-2026. 'By 2030 we'll have significantly more drivers than today, including US.' Machines more predictable + higher acceptance rates than humans.",
"watch_events_raw": "Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules",
"active_start_month": 0,
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"track_record_grade": "B+",
"track_record_notes": "Uber CEO; 'drivers increase not decrease' 2030 call is counterintuitive but has been accurate on Uber's trajectory 2017-2026.",
"flag_near_term_2027": false,
"primary_scenario_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030",
"flag_high_conviction": true,
"milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-01T21:12:50.943364+00:00",
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:49.965943+00:00",
"reference_class_match": {
"decision": "keyword_filtered",
"computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
"best_id_unfiltered": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
"best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.4987
},
"validation_status_raw": "UNRESEARCHED",
"composite_signal_score": 26,
"scenario_assignment_at": "2026-04-30T16:04:16.912851+00:00",
"flag_priority_watchlist": false,
"flag_timeline_near_term": false,
"recent_statement_source": "diamandis.com/podcast/ep-244",
"ps_displacement_mechanism": "AV fleet scale 2027-2030 structurally reduces auto insurance loss-pool; gross premiums compress as accident frequency falls.",
"scenario_assignment_reasoning": "predictor='Dara Khosrowshahi' tilt=mid (year~2029) → S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030",
"scenario_assignment_confidence": "MEDIUM",
"scenario_assignment_similarity": 0.6222