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241_021predictionMarkets/Stocks$100T

America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
47.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2031-09-30
Edges in / out
7 / 0
Tickers exposed
35

Prediction text

America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | 100 gigawatts is do the math... can we raise 5 trillion dollars over 5 years? Yeah. That's the strength of America

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
100 gigawatts is do the math... can we raise 5 trillion dollars over 5 years? Yeah. That's the strength of America

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.636

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 47.2% → blend 47.2% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 pending
  1. 2026-06-30pendingStargate 10 GW capacity goal achieved (originally targeted 2029)
    How: OpenAI / Oracle / SoftBank confirm 10 GW Stargate compute online via filing or joint announcement (already reached early 2026 per Meyka analysis)
    Source: Meyka: Stargate Reaches 10GW AI Capacity Target Ahead of Scheduleconf 90%
  2. 2026-12-25pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  3. 2027-12-19pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  4. 2027-12-31pendingHyperscaler CapEx exceeds $1T cumulative for 2025-2027 window
    How: Aggregate Microsoft + Google + Amazon + Meta + Oracle + OpenAI/Stargate disclosed CapEx for 2025-27 reaches >=$1T per 10-K filings
    Source: Introl: Hyperscaler CapEx hits $690B in 2026 — trajectory implies >$1T for 2025-27conf 85%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingStargate $400B already-committed crosses $500B fully deployed
    How: OpenAI / SoftBank / Oracle joint statement or 10-K confirms full $500B Stargate commitment deployed (currently $400B in play)
    Source: OpenAI Stargate progress notes; Construction Dive five new sitesconf 75%
  6. 2028-12-12pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2029-01-01 → 2031-09-30pending100 GW dedicated AI/data-center load on US grid (cumulative interconnection)
    How: EIA / RTO data confirms cumulative dedicated AI / data-center grid load reaches 100 GW interconnected (Schmidt's stated denominator)
    Source: Schmidt's quoted 100 GW figure + EIA capacity additions trajectoryconf 55%
  8. 2030-01-01 → 2031-09-30pendingCascade: $5T cumulative US AI/data-center capital deployed (event horizon)
    How: Independent aggregator (CB Insights, Pitchbook, McKinsey) confirms cumulative US AI infrastructure private + public capital >=$5T across rolling 5-year window
    Source: Schmidt prediction event criterionconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z47.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 48.4% → 47.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z48.4%-2.3pp
Network propagation: 50.7% → 48.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z50.7%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 53.4% → 50.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z53.4%+2.7pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.534 w_in=0.34 energy_grid_rebuild_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z50.7%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 53.4% → 50.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z53.4%-6.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.534 w_in=0.34 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK12
Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers
8.0%0.0500.600+0.084
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.065
killerTK10
$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
12.0%0.0500.600+0.062
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.037
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.600-0.010

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

35 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

MARABBAIGTLBAIIRBTSYMCRCLSOUNRIOTNVDAFANUYXYZAMZNCOINGOOGLHOODIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOPTSLAABBNY

Adverse (5)

MUBEMBHYGLQDTLT

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
correlateS_COMPUTE_100GW_2030Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030compute_scale
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK10$100T Sovereign Debt Crisis
killerTK12Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (7)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.631manifoldWill Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years?24%mentionspending2026-04-25
0.605gdeltwere raising our price target on amazon by 50 after killer quarter.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.597manifoldWill the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026?10%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.590manifoldUS Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next?36%mentionspending2026-05-06
0.589manifoldWill I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA)37%mentionspending2026-05-16
0.581manifoldWill Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges25%mentionspending2026-06-01
0.574gdeltarticle 8ede7c62 8861 5d5f ac2f 5502203175ae.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$5 trillion over 5 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "can we raise 5 trillion dollars over 5 years? Yeah",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "verbatim": "100 gigawatts is do the math... can we raise 5 trillion dollars over 5 years? Yeah. That's the strength of America",
  "conv_cues": "strength of America",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2031",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stargate 10 GW capacity goal achieved (originally targeted 2029)",
      "source": "Meyka: Stargate Reaches 10GW AI Capacity Target Ahead of Schedule",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://meyka.com/blog/openais-stargate-reaches-10gw-ai-capacity-target-ahead-of-schedule-2604/",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / Oracle / SoftBank confirm 10 GW Stargate compute online via filing or joint announcement (already reached early 2026 per Meyka analysis)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.3,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "S_GRID_50GW_2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler CapEx exceeds $1T cumulative for 2025-2027 window",
      "source": "Introl: Hyperscaler CapEx hits $690B in 2026 — trajectory implies >$1T for 2025-27",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-690-billion-microsoft-azure-power-bottleneck-2026",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Aggregate Microsoft + Google + Amazon + Meta + Oracle + OpenAI/Stargate disclosed CapEx for 2025-27 reaches >=$1T per 10-K filings"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stargate $400B already-committed crosses $500B fully deployed",
      "source": "OpenAI Stargate progress notes; Construction Dive five new sites",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "source_url": "https://www.constructiondive.com/news/stargate-5-new-data-center-sites/761424/",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / SoftBank / Oracle joint statement or 10-K confirms full $500B Stargate commitment deployed (currently $400B in play)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_021",
      "expecte
... (truncated)