America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout | 100 gigawatts is do the math... can we raise 5 trillion dollars over 5 years? Yeah. That's the strength of America
Verbatim quote
100 gigawatts is do the math... can we raise 5 trillion dollars over 5 years? Yeah. That's the strength of America
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-30pendingStargate 10 GW capacity goal achieved (originally targeted 2029)How: OpenAI / Oracle / SoftBank confirm 10 GW Stargate compute online via filing or joint announcement (already reached early 2026 per Meyka analysis)Source: Meyka: Stargate Reaches 10GW AI Capacity Target Ahead of Scheduleconf 90%
- 2026-12-25pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2027-12-19pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2027-12-31pendingHyperscaler CapEx exceeds $1T cumulative for 2025-2027 windowHow: Aggregate Microsoft + Google + Amazon + Meta + Oracle + OpenAI/Stargate disclosed CapEx for 2025-27 reaches >=$1T per 10-K filingsSource: Introl: Hyperscaler CapEx hits $690B in 2026 — trajectory implies >$1T for 2025-27conf 85%
- 2027-06-01 → 2029-06-30pendingStargate $400B already-committed crosses $500B fully deployedHow: OpenAI / SoftBank / Oracle joint statement or 10-K confirms full $500B Stargate commitment deployed (currently $400B in play)Source: OpenAI Stargate progress notes; Construction Dive five new sitesconf 75%
- 2028-12-12pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2029-01-01 → 2031-09-30pending100 GW dedicated AI/data-center load on US grid (cumulative interconnection)How: EIA / RTO data confirms cumulative dedicated AI / data-center grid load reaches 100 GW interconnected (Schmidt's stated denominator)Source: Schmidt's quoted 100 GW figure + EIA capacity additions trajectoryconf 55%
- 2030-01-01 → 2031-09-30pendingCascade: $5T cumulative US AI/data-center capital deployed (event horizon)How: Independent aggregator (CB Insights, Pitchbook, McKinsey) confirms cumulative US AI infrastructure private + public capital >=$5T across rolling 5-year windowSource: Schmidt prediction event criterionconf 50%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK12 Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Revers | 8.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.084 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.065 |
| killer | TK10 $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.062 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.037 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.010 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (5)
Prerequisites (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_100GW_2030 | Compute: 100GW national-scale by Dec 2030 | compute_scale | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK10 | $100T Sovereign Debt Crisis | — | — |
| killer | TK12 | Crypto Regulatory Kill Shot (Stablecoin Ban / BTC ETF Reversal) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (7)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.631 | manifold | Will Christian Affiliation in the United States Increase Over Five Years? | 24% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-25 |
| 0.605 | gdelt | were raising our price target on amazon by 50 after killer quarter.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.597 | manifold | Will the US average gas price hit $5 per gallon in May 2026? | 10% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.590 | manifold | US Gas Price hits $4(NO) or $5(YES) Next? | 36% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.589 | manifold | Will I buy gasoline for more than $5/gallon this year (USA) | 37% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.581 | manifold | Will Trump's Anti-Weaponization Fund survive its initial challenges | 25% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.574 | gdelt | article 8ede7c62 8861 5d5f ac2f 5502203175ae.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
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"qty": "$5 trillion over 5 years",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "can we raise 5 trillion dollars over 5 years? Yeah",
"to_year": 2031,
"verbatim": "100 gigawatts is do the math... can we raise 5 trillion dollars over 5 years? Yeah. That's the strength of America",
"conv_cues": "strength of America",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026-2031",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Stargate 10 GW capacity goal achieved (originally targeted 2029)",
"source": "Meyka: Stargate Reaches 10GW AI Capacity Target Ahead of Schedule",
"status": "pending",
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"expected_date": "2026-06-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / Oracle / SoftBank confirm 10 GW Stargate compute online via filing or joint announcement (already reached early 2026 per Meyka analysis)"
},
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"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"label": "Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027",
"status": "pending",
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"expected_date": "2027-12-31",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Hyperscaler CapEx exceeds $1T cumulative for 2025-2027 window",
"source": "Introl: Hyperscaler CapEx hits $690B in 2026 — trajectory implies >$1T for 2025-27",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/hyperscaler-capex-690-billion-microsoft-azure-power-bottleneck-2026",
"expected_date": "2027-12-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Aggregate Microsoft + Google + Amazon + Meta + Oracle + OpenAI/Stargate disclosed CapEx for 2025-27 reaches >=$1T per 10-K filings"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Stargate $400B already-committed crosses $500B fully deployed",
"source": "OpenAI Stargate progress notes; Construction Dive five new sites",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.75,
"source_url": "https://www.constructiondive.com/news/stargate-5-new-data-center-sites/761424/",
"expected_date": "2028-06-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2029-06-30",
"from": "2027-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / SoftBank / Oracle joint statement or 10-K confirms full $500B Stargate commitment deployed (currently $400B in play)"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
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"expected_date": "2028-12-12",
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"label": "America can raise $5 trillion over 5 years for data center/AI buildout",
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"expecte
... (truncated)