Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailored for robotaxis in major urban centers — starting with Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Dallas.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Prediction text
Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailored for robotaxis in major urban centers — starting with Los Angeles, the San Francisco Bay Area, and Dallas. | First Uber robotaxi depot commissioning
Key catalyst: First Uber robotaxi depot commissioning
Watch events: First Uber robotaxi depot opening; EVgo/Electra partnership milestones
Resolution evidence
Uber Feb 2026 announcement covered by CleanTechnica; partnerships with EVgo, Electra, Hubber, Ionity. Semafor Mar 2026 reported $1T total AV investment framework.
Predictor: Dara Khosrowshahi
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dara Khosrowshahi is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "hit",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 1,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 1,
"delta_to_outcome": 0.13834000000000002,
"inside_posterior": 0.86166,
"validation_notes": "Uber Feb 2026 announcement covered by CleanTechnica; partnerships with EVgo, Electra, Hubber, Ionity. Semafor Mar 2026 reported $1T total AV investment framework.",
"validation_status": "hit",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.86166,
"resolution_evidence": "Uber Feb 2026 announcement covered by CleanTechnica; partnerships with EVgo, Electra, Hubber, Ionity. Semafor Mar 2026 reported $1T total AV investment framework.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK11 Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.920 | +0.134 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (20)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_NATIONWIDE_2028 | Robotaxi nationwide expansion by Nov 2028 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_TESLA_2026 | Tesla FSD unsupervised wide deployment by Nov 2026 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| correlate | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 | Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK11 | Autonomous Regulatory Block (Level 4 Halt) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-12-31 | [Autonomous 2028-12] on't need a driver's license in 2 years [INF_065] First Uber robotaxi depot opening; EVgo/Electra partnership milestones [238_049] Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | pending |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | hit | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Uber Feb 2026 announcement covered by CleanTechnica; partnerships with EVgo, Electra, Hubber, Ionity. Semafor Mar 2026 reported $1T total AV investment framework. |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.589 | edgar_8k | Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.589 | edgar_8k | Uber Technologies, Inc (UBER) (CIK 0001543151) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "$100M",
"mode": "OBSERVATION+FORECAST",
"role": "Cited-CEO",
"context": "Confirmed Q1 2026 Uber capital allocation. Addresses the unique charging profile of autonomous fleets (deterministic, high-throughput, off-peak bulk) vs stochastic consumer patterns.",
"to_year": 2028,
"conv_cues": "announced dollar commitment; named cities",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026-2028",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-01-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-01",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-03-30",
"observed_date": null,
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Uber has committed an initial $100 million specifically to develop EV charging infrastructure tailored for robotaxis in major urban centers ",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "INF_065",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
}
],
"repeat_eps": 1,
"sub_domain": "Transport",
"affiliation": "Uber",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"granularity": "YEAR_RANGE",
"resolved_at": "2026-04-29T22:23:18.187180+00:00",
"source_refs": "37, 38",
"target_date": "2027-06-15T00:00:00",
"display_date": "2026-04-29",
"episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
"key_catalyst": "First Uber robotaxi depot commissioning",
"parse_method": "YEAR_RANGE midpoint",
"domain_bucket": "Auto",
"episode_title": "The Paradigm Shift in Global Power: Nuclear, Solar, Battery & EV-Charging Predictions (2023-2026)",
"fault_line_id": "F005, F006",
"flag_repeated": false,
"in_5yr_window": true,
"source_report": "Energy Predictions Research Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
"appears_in_eps": "INF-RPT",
"futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (2026)",
"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 1,
"priority_weight": 5,
"ps_cluster_tags": [
"C9"
],
"report_evidence": "Anchor section: Robotaxi Infrastructure Paradigm.",
"active_end_month": "2028-12",
"recent_statement": "Uber Q1 2026 press release; Semafor coverage.",
"watch_events_raw": "First Uber robotaxi depot opening; EVgo/Electra partnership milestones",
"months_from_today": 14,
"probability_layer": "Higher (in-flight)",
"active_start_month": "2026-01",
"december_dispersal": {
"reason": "december_dispersal: domain=Auto/Transport → 10/2028",
"new_date": "2028-10-31",
"old_date": "2028-12-31",
"applied_at": "2026-04-30T16:28:34.304992+00:00"
},
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"resolved_at_source": "validations_observed_at",
"track_record_grade": "B",
"track_record_notes": "Uber capital commitments historically executed on-time.",
"contradicting_notes": "Scale of actual deployment vs announcement timing may slip; $100M is small relative to $1T framework.",
"flag_near_term_2027": true,
"flag_high_conviction": true,
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:51.067234+00:00",
"reference_class_match": {
"decision": "keyword_filtered",
"computed_at"