Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source
Prediction text
Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages | the EVTOLs are going to move very quickly cuz they don't run the risk of crashing into houses... They're all going to be autonomous on birth
Verbatim quote
the EVTOLs are going to move very quickly cuz they don't run the risk of crashing into houses... They're all going to be autonomous on birth
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2027-02-23pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2027-12-19pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2028-10-13pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | 30.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.232 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.098 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.087 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.071 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.039 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (6)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030 | Robotaxi >10% urban miles by Nov 2030 | robotaxi_deployment | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "the EVTOLs are going to move very quickly... They're all going to be autonomous on birth",
"verbatim": "the EVTOLs are going to move very quickly cuz they don't run the risk of crashing into houses... They're all going to be autonomous on birth",
"conv_cues": "going to; all going to be",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "unspecified future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
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{
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{
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"expected_date": "2028-10-13",
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},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Self-flying eVTOLs will be the norm given AI safety advantages",
"status": "pending",
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"source_id": "242_059",
"expected_date": "2029-08-09",
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}
],
"repeat_eps": 3,
"sub_domain": "Transport",
"affiliation": "Moonshots Podcast",
"attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
"episode_num": 242,
"granularity": "VAGUE",
"display_date": "2029-08-09",
"episode_date": "2026-03-26",
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"domain_bucket": "Auto",
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"in_5yr_window": false,
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"is_macro_claim": false,
"total_mentions": 3,
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"ps_cluster_tags": [
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"recent_statement": "April 18 2026 Ep 248: '100x year will blow away prediction - 100x by summer'. March 5 2026 Ep 235: 'Anthropic will hit $1T revenue by 2029-2030, first company in history.' Feb 13 2026 Ep 230: 'Consulting industry will go through the roof.'",
"active_start_month": 0,
"flag_nia_bracketed": false,
"track_record_grade": "B+",
"track_record_notes": "MIT/Link Ventures investor with strong pattern recognition on AI infrastructure trends. No long public track record pre-2023; judgment best treated as high-quality operator signal, not independent forecast.",
"flag_near_term_2027": false,
"primary_scenario_id": "S_ROBOTAXI_MASS_2030",
"flag_high_conviction": true,
"milestones_phase2_at": "2026-05-01T21:12:50.929313+00:00",
"milestones_derived_at": "2026-05-02T03:08:49.915635+00:00",
"reference_class_match": {
"decision": "keyword_filtered",
"computed_at": "2026-04-30T01:49:13.796883+00:00",
"best_id_unfiltered": "energy_grid_rebuild_5y",
"best_similarity_unfiltered": 0.5221
},
"validation_status_raw": "UNRESEARCHED",
"composite_signal_score": 48,
"scenario_assignment_at": "2026-04-30T16:04:16.912851+00:00",
"flag_priority_watchlist": false,
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"ps_displacement_mechanism": "Foundation-model capability curve eats entry-level white-collar tasks first; BPO/tutoring/search-adjacent economics compress through 2028.",
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"scenario_assignment_confidence": "MEDIUM",
"scenario_assignment_similarity": 0.6188
}