Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029
Prediction text
Capital flight, geopolitical disruption (Taiwan), or regulatory block prevents Stargate from delivering. 1GW slips past Q4 2028.
Predictor calibration
This node has no predictor assigned. Default κ=0.5 applies to any intake evidence about it.
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
No milestone chain derived yet. Run scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py to populate from prereq edges + window checkpoints.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
No probability history yet. The first evidence will arrive via /api/intake or the daily milestone sweep / weekly LBP run.
Network propagation neighbors
No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.
Prerequisites (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prerequisites | ||||
Dependents (7)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | INF_017 | xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale demand for a single facility, making it among the first AI DCs to exceed 1 GW peak draw. | Energy | — |
| correlate | SEM_005 | Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partnership). | AI/Infrastructure | — |
| correlate | FUT_025 | Runaway economic feedback loop 2026-2031: cheaper renewable energy incentivizes wider adoption, increases global manufacturing volumes, drives prices down further along Wright's curve. Political independence means energy transition continues regardless... | Energy | — |
| correlate | FUT_012 | Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De... | Energy | — |
| correlate | 241_016 | 92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | Energy | — |
| correlate | 240_034 | Morgan Stanley forecasts 13-40GW data center power shortfall through 2028 | Energy | — |
| correlate | INF_006 | Over time, very large fractions of the earth's land surface will be given over to data centers as AI compute demand scales — hyperscaler DC footprint transitions from discrete campuses to regional-scale compute territories. | AI | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.583 | polymarket | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | 2% | mentions | pending | 2025-09-19 |
| 0.552 | edgar_8k | CURTISS WRIGHT CORP (CW) (CIK 0000026324) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.530 | edgar_8k | Lifeward Ltd. (LFWD) (CIK 0001607962) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.530 | edgar_8k | Lifeward Ltd. (LFWD) (CIK 0001607962) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-19 |
| 0.523 | edgar_8k | IREN Ltd (IREN) (CIK 0001878848) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-12 |
| 0.523 | edgar_8k | IREN Ltd (IREN) (CIK 0001878848) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.523 | edgar_8k | IREN Ltd (IREN) (CIK 0001878848) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-01 |
| 0.523 | edgar_8k | IREN Ltd (IREN) (CIK 0001878848) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-08 |
| 0.523 | edgar_8k | IREN Ltd (IREN) (CIK 0001878848) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.523 | edgar_8k | IREN Ltd (IREN) (CIK 0001878848) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
Raw metadata
{
"fork_key": "compute",
"dimension": "compute_scale",
"family_type": "cumulative",
"family_label": "Compute scale",
"family_order": 4,
"exclusive_with": [
"S_COMPUTE_1GW_2027",
"S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028"
]
}