xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale demand for a single facility, making it among the first AI DCs to exceed 1 GW peak draw.

xAI Colossus Phase 2 will consume approximately 1.5 gigawatts of power — city-scale demand for a single facility, making it among the first AI DCs to exceed 1 GW peak draw. | Colossus 2 ribbon-cutting

Key catalyst: Colossus 2 ribbon-cutting

Watch events: TVA interconnection; Memphis firm-power contracts; xAI disclosures

xAI Memphis / Colossus 1 at ~0.25 GW (200K H100s); Colossus 2 planning documents filed with TVA disclose ~1-1.5 GW target. Musk public statements consistent.

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1.5 GW",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-CEO",
  "context": "By 2026, five US data centers are projected to draw >1 GW each at peak — each equivalent to a commercial nuclear reactor's continuous output.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "conv_cues": "specific GW; announced facility",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2027",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "xAI Colossus 2 hits 1 GW operational capacity",
      "source": "EONMSK + Interesting Engineering — 'xAI Activates Colossus 2: World's first Gigawatt-scale AI training cluster'",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.eonmsk.com/2026/01/17/xai-activates-colossus-2-the-worlds-first-gigawatt-scale-ai-training-cluster/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI Colossus 2 confirmed operational at >=1 GW power draw; first gigawatt-scale AI training cluster"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossus 2 expands to 1.5 GW operational capacity",
      "notes": "Per SemiAnalysis April 2026 reporting; matches exact INF_017 thesis number.",
      "source": "AllAboutAI / SemiAnalysis — '1.5 GW upgrade by April 2026'",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/xais-colossus-2-first-gigawatt-datacenter",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Musk announces upgrade to 1.5 GW operating capacity, adding ~250,000 GPUs (taking total to ~850,000)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-05",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-13T22:12:36.268347+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-06",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Colossus complex reaches 2 GW with third Memphis building",
      "source": "Introl — 'xAI Colossus Hits 2 GW: 555,000 GPUs, $18B, Largest AI Site January 2026'",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/xai-colossus-2-gigawatt-expansion-555k-gpus-january-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "xAI Colossus complex (incl. third Memphis building) reaches 2 GW total capacity with 555,000+ GPUs operational"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Five US data centers each draw >1 GW peak by 2026 year-end",
      "source": "INF_017 thesis context: 'By 2026, five US data centers projected to draw >1 GW each at peak'",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "By end of 2026, at least 5 US AI data centers (xAI, Stargate, Meta Hyperion, Google Iowa, Microsoft Wisconsin) each draw >1 GW peak power"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
   
... (truncated)