241_016predictionEnergyAI-timing

92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability

60.0%

Current probability

50.8%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31

Edges in / out

11 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030 | there was an estimated 92 gigawatts shortage of power in America in the next between now and 2030

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"

there was an estimated 92 gigawatts shortage of power in America in the next between now and 2030

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.688

Brier

0.0064

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 0

of 3 resolved

Hit rate

100.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.633

All classes →

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate

50.0%

3/6 historical

Inside weight

—

Outside weight

—

no pull

inside 50.8% → blend 50.8% (Δ 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 pending

2026-03-15hitEric Schmidt cites 92GW shortage figure publicly
How: Eric Schmidt or US grid policy official publicly cites a ~92GW US power shortage estimate for the 2025-2030 horizon
Source: https://www.diamandis.com/podcast/eric-schmidt-singularitys-arrivalconf 99%
Notes: HIT — Schmidt cited 92GW figure on Moonshots #241 podcast.
2026-04-01hitS&P Global confirms 22% data-center grid demand rise in 2025-2026
How: S&P Global reports 22%+ year-over-year increase in US data center grid power demand
Source: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/101425-data-center-grid-power-demand-to-rise-22-in-2025-nearly-triple-by-2030conf 99%
2026-04-29hitNvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a
2026-04-29hitTraining runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.
2026-04-29hit2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.
2026-04-29hitRecursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)
2026-06-30pendingPJM declares 2027 reliability shortfall of 6GW
How: PJM Interconnection publishes formal capacity shortfall projection >=6GW for 2027 in resource adequacy report
Source: https://interestingengineering.com/energy/ai-power-grid-data-centers-usconf 90%
2026-08-18pending92 GW power shortage in America between now and 2030
2026-07-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFederal grid emergency authority invoked for AI data centers
How: DOE invokes Federal Power Act §202(c) emergency authority or executive order on grid capacity citing AI demand
Source: Federal Register; DOE pressconf 40%
2026-12-31pendingUS data center demand reaches 75GW in 2026 per S&P
How: S&P Global confirms 2026 US data center demand of 75GW+ (on path to 134GW by 2030)
Source: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/101425-data-center-grid-power-demand-to-rise-22-in-2025-nearly-triple-by-2030conf 70%
2027-06-26pendingMath is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.
2028-06-25pendingWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.
2028-09-07pendingBy 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.
2033-07-30pendingRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.
2033-08-10pendingASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z50.8%-1.1pp

Network propagation: 51.8% → 50.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.8%-1.5pp

Network propagation: 53.3% → 51.8%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.3%-2.0pp

Network propagation: 55.4% → 53.3%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z55.4%+1.6pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.554 w_in=0.53 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z53.8%-1.6pp

Network propagation: 55.3% → 53.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z55.3%-4.7pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.553 w_in=0.53 energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil	73.8%	0.600	0.050	-0.057
prereq	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang	75.0%	0.600	0.050	-0.049
prereq	SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei	76.9%	0.600	0.050	-0.039
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.037
prereq	238_009 Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no long — Alex Wissner-Gross	78.1%	0.600	0.050	-0.033

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis	35.5%	0.700	0.050	+0.022
prereq	231_013 Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology cha — Alex Wissner-Gross	35.4%	0.620	0.050	-0.018
prereq	CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman	31.4%	0.550	0.050	-0.013
prereq	235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil	39.2%	0.750	0.050	+0.009
prereq	241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis	35.9%	0.650	0.050	-0.007

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUN CRWV SITM NVDA ARM GTLB BBAI TSM APLD CEVA AI MSFT MRVL SFTBY ORCL QCOM AVGO BABA AMD GOOGL IBM AMZN META

Adverse (6)

WNS CHGG CTSH IBM INFY ACN

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	SEM_008	Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.	AI	—
prereq	238_009	Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)	AI	—
prereq	SEM_012	Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.	AI/Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_042	2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.	AI/Agents	—
correlate	S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028	Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028	compute_scale	—
correlate	S_GRID_50GW_2027	50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027	energy_grid_expansion	—
correlate	S_COMPUTE_STARGATE_FAILURE	Stargate failure: <500MW by 2029	compute_scale	—
correlate	S_GRID_50GW_DELAYED	50GW grid expansion delayed past 2031	energy_grid_expansion	—
killer	TK14	Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	235_030	Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.	Biotech/Longevity	—
prereq	232_055	We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.	AI	—
prereq	241_043	ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade	AI	—
prereq	231_013	Math is cooked (will be solved), physics cooked, biology char broiled.	AI	—
prereq	CMQ_002	By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.	AI	—

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.546	edgar_8k	PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-11
0.546	edgar_8k	PLUG POWER INC (PLUG) (CIK 0001093691)	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "92 GW shortage",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "estimate",
  "context": "estimated 92 gigawatts shortage of power in America in the next between now and 2030",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "there was an estimated 92 gigawatts shortage of power in America in the next between now and 2030",
  "conv_cues": "estimated",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "by 2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Eric Schmidt cites 92GW shortage figure publicly",
      "notes": "HIT — Schmidt cited 92GW figure on Moonshots #241 podcast.",
      "source": "https://www.diamandis.com/podcast/eric-schmidt-singularitys-arrival",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.diamandis.com/podcast/eric-schmidt-singularitys-arrival",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Eric Schmidt or US grid policy official publicly cites a ~92GW US power shortage estimate for the 2025-2030 horizon"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "S&P Global confirms 22% data-center grid demand rise in 2025-2026",
      "source": "https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/101425-data-center-grid-power-demand-to-rise-22-in-2025-nearly-triple-by-2030",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/101425-data-center-grid-power-demand-to-rise-22-in-2025-nearly-triple-by-2030",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "S&P Global reports 22%+ year-over-year increase in US data center grid power demand"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "PJM declares 2027 reliability shortfall of 6GW",
      "source": "https://interestingengineering.com/energy/ai-power-grid-data-centers-us",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://interestingengineering.com/energy/ai-power-grid-data-centers-us",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "PJM Interconnection publishes formal capacity shortfall projection >=6GW
... (truncated)