Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. De...

Two-thirds of world's nations reaching tipping point 2026-2031 where building new renewable capacity is strictly cheaper than operating existing fully-depreciated coal/natural gas facilities — achieved completely independent of government subsidies. Decouples global energy transition from political sentiment; trillions of dollars in fossil fuel assets rapidly stranded via pure economic obsolescence not environmental regulation or climate treaties. | Next major fossil-asset stranded-write-down event

Key catalyst: Next major fossil-asset stranded-write-down event

Watch events: BNEF LCOE+storage regional crossings; fossil-asset impairment announcements

BNEF 2024-2026 tracking: ~60% of nations at unsubsidized-new-solar cheaper than existing fossil operating costs; crossing threshold rapidly.

Beneficiaries (13)

Adverse (3)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "2/3 nations subsidy-free parity",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Other",
  "context": "Third Naam entry. Specific subsidy-independent-grid-parity + fossil-asset-stranding framing. Couples with INF_013 (natural gas 20% new power), INF_063 (battery storage negative prices).",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "conv_cues": "specific fraction of nations; subsidy-independence criterion",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2031",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "IRENA: 91% of new renewables cheaper than cheapest fossil",
      "notes": "HIT — captures NEW-build crossover. Next milestone is operating-cost crossover (the harder claim).",
      "source": "IRENA July 2025: 91% of new utility-scale renewables in 2024 cheaper than cheapest fossil-fuel alternative",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2025/Jul/91-Percent-of-New-Renewable-Projects-Now-Cheaper-Than-Fossil-Fuels-Alternatives",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs report shows >=90% of newly commissioned utility-scale renewables produce electricity below cost of cheapest fossil-fuel alternative"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "IRENA: 800 GW existing coal operating cost above new solar/wind",
      "notes": "HIT — IRENA explicitly documented the operating-cost crossover for 800 GW of legacy coal.",
      "source": "IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024 (published 2025): 800 GW coal already operating-cost-uneconomic vs new renewables",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2025/Jul/IRENA_TEC_RPGC_in_2024_Summary_2025.pdf",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "IRENA analysis confirms >=800 GW of existing coal-fired capacity has operating costs higher than new utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-13",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major fossil-asset stranded write-down by global utility",
      "notes": "Direct measurement of 'stranded asset write-down' — Naam's specific cascade prediction.",
      "source": "Utility 10-Ks; PG&E, Duke, Engie, RWE, EnBW historical write-downs",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "A top-50 global utility takes >=$2B impairment charge against coal or gas generation assets in 10-K/annual report citing renewable cost competition (not regulation/climate)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-03-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Two-thirds of nations cross renewable-vs-existing-fossil tipping point",
      "notes": "Direct prediction resolution — Naam's two-thirds threshold.",
      "source": "IEA, BNEF country LCOE/LROE comparison; Asia advantage sola
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