Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved

Over the next 10 years, substantially all important science and engineering problems will get solved | Peter, you and I with our recent book/extended essay, Solve Everything, talk all about how we think over the next 10 years substantially all of the the most important, valuable science and engineering and other problems are going to get solved.

Peter, you and I with our recent book/extended essay, Solve Everything, talk all about how we think over the next 10 years substantially all of the the most important, valuable science and engineering and other problems are going to get solved.

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Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Peter, you and I with our recent book/extended essay, Solve Everything, talk all about how we think over the next 10 years substantially all of the the most important, valuable science and engineering and other problems are going to get solved. And that that seems to be where Demis' headspace is.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "Peter, you and I with our recent book/extended essay, Solve Everything, talk all about how we think over the next 10 years substantially all of the the most important, valuable science and engineering and other problems are going to get solved.",
  "conv_cues": "we think",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "By 2036",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AlphaFold 3 / IsoDDE solves major drug-discovery bottleneck",
      "source": "Isomorphic Labs IsoDDE Feb 2026; Genesis Molecular AI Pearl 40% improvement over AF3",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/an-alphafold-4-scientists-marvel-at-deepmind-drug-spin-offs-exclusive-new-ai/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-10",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "AI model achieves >50% improvement over AlphaFold 3 on drug discovery benchmarks; widely integrated into pharma pipelines"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI solves at least one Millennium Prize problem or equivalent open math problem",
      "notes": "'All major science problems' requires major math anchor; Millennium proof is canonical bar.",
      "source": "Reference class: AlphaProof Olympiad gold 2024; FunSearch math discoveries; DeepMind/Anthropic mathematical reasoning roadmaps",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "expected_date": "2029-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2032-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AI system independently produces verified proof of one of the seven Clay Millennium Prize problems, or analogous-difficulty open problem (Riemann, Hodge, Yang-Mills mass gap)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-led breakthrough in fusion energy net Q>10",
      "source": "DeepMind tokamak control 2022; Commonwealth Fusion / TAE / Helion AI integratio
... (truncated)