Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement

Over next 10 years, will see a lot of augmentation of work and some replacement | I do think that over the next 10 years, you will see a lot of augmentation of work um and some replacement of work.

I do think that over the next 10 years, you will see a lot of augmentation of work um and some replacement of work.

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Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "I do think that over the next 10 years, you will see a lot of augmentation of work um and some replacement of work. And historically, our society has been able to adjust and as some work has been augmented or replaced, new work shows up, etc.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "I do think that over the next 10 years, you will see a lot of augmentation of work um and some replacement of work.",
  "conv_cues": "I do think; you will see",
  "direction": "MIXED",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "By 2036 (next 10 years)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
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      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
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    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
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      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
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      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-augmented worker productivity gains reach >50% in measured pilot studies for knowledge work",
      "source": "GitHub Copilot 55% study; Brynjolfsson customer service +14%",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-30",
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      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
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      "measurement_criterion": "MIT/NBER/Harvard or BLS-cited RCT shows >=50% productivity gain (output/hour) from AI augmentation in coding, customer service, legal research, or analyst work, replicated in >=3 studies"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Job replacement metric: >=10% of new entry-level white-collar postings disappear vs 2024 baseline",
      "source": "Anthropic 'modestly slower hiring' research; Stanford Institute",
      "status": "pending",
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      "ordinal": -4,
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      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2028-03-31",
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      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-06-30",
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      "measurement_criterion": "BLS, ADP, Indeed, or LinkedIn Workforce Report shows >=10% YoY decline in entry-level postings for AI-exposed occupations (paralegal, junior dev, data entry, customer support tier-1) vs 2024 baseline"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "WEF Future of Jobs report flips augmentation:replacement narrative",
      "source": "WEF Future of Jobs Report 2025: 92M displaced, 170M created",
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      "source_url": "https://reports.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_Report_2025.pdf",
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "traini
... (truncated)