Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights

Chinese AI strategy will stay open source / open weights | China's approach, which has produced DCV4, Quinn, Kimmy 2, Kimmy version 3, etc. and more coming, is it's all open source open weights

China's approach, which has produced DCV4, Quinn, Kimmy 2, Kimmy version 3, etc. and more coming, is it's all open source open weights

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

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  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "it's all open source open weights... and more coming",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "China's approach, which has produced DCV4, Quinn, Kimmy 2, Kimmy version 3, etc. and more coming, is it's all open source open weights",
  "conv_cues": "and more coming",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Qwen image gen model released open-source for IOC",
      "notes": "HIT — Qwen-Image 2.0 powers IOC tools for 2026 Milan Olympics, validating sustained Chinese open-source strategy.",
      "source": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/02/12/1132811/whats-next-for-chinese-open-source-ai/",
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      "source_url": "https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/02/12/1132811/whats-next-for-chinese-open-source-ai/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-12",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-12",
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      "measurement_criterion": "Alibaba publicly releases Qwen-Image 2.0 or peer model under open-source license with Olympic deployment"
    },
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Kimi K2.5 released open-source and surpasses Claude Opus by token usage",
      "notes": "HIT — Kimi K2.5 surpassed Claude Opus by token count, most-used AI model.",
      "source": "https://benchlm.ai/best/chinese-models",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
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      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://benchlm.ai/best/chinese-models",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Moonshot AI releases Kimi 2.5+ with open weights and reaches top-3 in OpenRouter or comparable usage rankings"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek V4 released as open-source weights",
      "notes": "HIT — DeepSeek V4 released open-source April 24 2026, validating Schmidt's claim about Chinese open-weight strategy.",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/deepseek-v4-llm-preview-open-source-ai-competition-china.html",
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      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/deepseek-v4-llm-preview-open-source-ai-competition-china.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-24",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "DeepSeek publicly releases V4 model with open weights, continuing R1/V3 open-source pattern"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 wil
... (truncated)