← Cockpit
247_010predictionAIAI-scaling

Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#247 "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
45.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
16 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Anthropic will beat OpenAI in valuation trajectory | I think Sam is a genius by the way...if the lawsuit blows over and they have 120 billion in cash he's going to do something epic with it. But Elon's relentless...if someone offered me a share of anthropic or a share of open AI which one would I grab at? I'd take the actually you can get two or three anthropics for each open AI. So I'd take the three anthropics for sure.

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Musk vs. Sam Altman, AI Job Loss, and OpenAI's $852B Valuation EP #247"
I think Sam is a genius by the way...if the lawsuit blows over and they have 120 billion in cash he's going to do something epic with it. But Elon's relentless...if someone offered me a share of anthropic or a share of open AI which one would I grab at? I'd take the actually you can get two or three anthropics for each open AI. So I'd take the three anthropics for sure.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-02-12hitAnthropic closes $30B round at $380B post-money valuation
    How: Anthropic announces closed financing round; primary press confirms $380B post-money.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
    Observed: USD 380B post-money
  2. 2026-04-29hitAnthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation
    How: Bloomberg/CNBC/TechCrunch confirm Anthropic considering offers at >=$900B that would top OpenAI's $852B Feb-2026 mark.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
  3. 2026-05-01 → 2026-06-30pendingAnthropic board approves the >=$900B round
    How: Anthropic publicly confirms close (or board approval) of the $50B round at >=$852B post-money, exceeding OpenAI's Feb-2026 mark.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 70%
    Notes: Bloomberg reports definitive board decision targeted for May 2026.
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingAnthropic revenue crosses OpenAI revenue (annualized run-rate)
    How: Independent reporting (The Information, FT, Bloomberg) shows Anthropic ARR > OpenAI ARR for at least one trailing month.
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%
    Notes: Tied to mid-2026 ARR-crossover thesis already tracked elsewhere in this corpus.
  5. 2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingAnthropic IPO filing or S-1 disclosed
    How: Public S-1 (or F-1) filing for Anthropic; Bloomberg reports IPO could come as early as October 2026.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.2%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 46.3% → 45.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.3%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 48.3% → 46.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.3%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 51.2% → 48.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.550-0.077
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.5500.050-0.066
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5500.050-0.066
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.550-0.052
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.048

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.9200.050-0.093
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.059
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.046
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.044
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.015

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (16)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_AGI_MID_2029AGI mid: Kurzweil 2029 pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2026First $1T+ IPO in 2026ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
correlateS_AGI_WINTER_2036PLUSAGI delayed: capability plateau or AI winteragi_general_capability
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.828manifoldWill OpenAI overtake Anthropic in Valuation before 202865%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.821manifoldWill Anthropic’s valuation exceed that of OpenAI by at least 50% on June 1, 2027?39%mentionspending2026-06-02
0.772manifoldWill Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?11%mentionspending2026-06-05
0.765manifoldWill Anthropic IPO by….?mentionspending2026-06-02
0.761manifoldWill OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?18%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.757manifoldWill an OpenAI or Anthropic employee comment on this market first?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.753manifoldWill Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?53%mentionspending2026-05-17
0.752polymarketWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?80%mentionspending2025-10-10
0.750polymarketWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?100%mentionspending2026-04-13
0.746polymarketWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?99%mentionspending2026-03-20

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "you can get two or three anthropics for each open AI. So I'd take the three anthropics for sure",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "I think Sam is a genius by the way...if the lawsuit blows over and they have 120 billion in cash he's going to do something epic with it. But Elon's relentless...if someone offered me a share of anthropic or a share of open AI which one would I grab at? I'd take the actually you can get two or three anthropics for each open AI. So I'd take the three anthropics for sure.",
  "conv_cues": "I'd take the three anthropics for sure",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic closes $30B round at $380B post-money valuation",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/12/anthropic-closes-30-billion-funding-round-at-380-billion-valuation.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-12",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-12",
      "observed_value": "USD 380B post-money",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic announces closed financing round; primary press confirms $380B post-money."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic weighs $50B round at >=$900B valuation",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/anthropic-considering-funding-offers-at-over-900-billion-value",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Bloomberg/CNBC/TechCrunch confirm Anthropic considering offers at >=$900B that would top OpenAI's $852B Feb-2026 mark."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic board approves the >=$900B round",
      "notes": "Bloomberg reports definitive board decision targeted for May 2026.",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      
... (truncated)