← Cockpit
IND_024predictionMacro/EconomySolve-Everything-2035-abundance

Attainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physical and mathematical solutions — Wissner-Gross co-authored 'Solve Everything' blueprint Feb 2026 articulating this 2035 post-scarcity horizon.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

Prior probability
15.0%
Current probability
13.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2035-01-01 – 2035-12-31
Edges in / out
3 / 0
Tickers exposed
0

Prediction text

Attainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physical and mathematical solutions — Wissner-Gross co-authored 'Solve Everything' blueprint Feb 2026 articulating this 2035 post-scarcity horizon. | ASI emergence; material-abundance milestones

Key catalyst: ASI emergence; material-abundance milestones

Watch events: Next "Solve Everything" update or annual review

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

'Solve Everything' Feb 2026 publication with Diamandis, Blundin, Wissner-Gross; 2035 post-scarcity aggressive but internally consistent with cohort.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

1 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 15%2026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 13.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 10 pending
  1. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingWissner-Gross + Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (2026-2027 information) milestones tracked publicly
    How: solveeverything.org publishes progress dashboard or Wissner-Gross/Diamandis publication tracks Phase 1 (math, code, physics formal-verification) milestones
    Source: https://www.solveeverything.org/conf 55%
  2. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingWissner-Gross/Diamandis publish progress update at end of 18-month critical window
    How: Public review document, podcast, or essay assesses progress against the 'next 18 months will define the next century' framing from Feb 2026
    Source: https://axisofeasy.com/best-of-the-web/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-why-the-next-18-months-will-define-the-next-cent/conf 70%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingIndustrial Intelligence Stack adoption — first major industrial sector publicly applies blueprint framework
    How: Major chemicals, materials, energy, or pharma firm publicly cites Industrial Intelligence Stack approach in capex strategy or technology roadmap
    Source: https://gist.github.com/seansilva-adam-bot/eb35b2030bedaa91959afeb7cb69aef0conf 40%
  4. 2028-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingVirtual Cell milestone — Phase 2 anchor of Solve Everything blueprint
    How: Major lab (DeepMind, Arc Institute, Recursion) releases foundation model claimed as Virtual Cell achieving end-to-end cellular simulation
    Source: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everythingconf 45%
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2034-12-31pendingFrontier-lab claim of ASI emergence (artificial superintelligence)
    How: OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, xAI or comparable lab publicly claims ASI threshold reached, with measurable benchmark cited
    Source: https://metatrends.substack.com/p/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-andconf 35%
  6. 2032-01-01 → 2036-12-31pendingCascade: Phase 3 (2032-2035) planetary-scale solutions — first dial-tone-reliable AI-managed energy or food utility
    How: Major utility, food-system, or infrastructure operator deploys AI-managed system at planetary scale meeting 'dial-tone-reliable' framing — measurable uptime and capacity claims
    Source: https://burgessing.substack.com/p/my-weekend-read-solve-everythingconf 30%
  7. 2035-03-10pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  8. 2035-05-18pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  9. 2035-07-25pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 14%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z13.9%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 15.0% → 13.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.150-0.014
killerTK07
Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)
18.0%0.0500.150-0.007

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_AGI_SLOW_2031AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year pathagi_general_capability
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK07Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.598manifoldWhat will be the total prize in the third Manifold Prize Drawing?mentionspending2026-04-24

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Other",
  "context": "Sharpens 232_056 (every discipline flattened Wissner-Gross) and 230_034 (Diamandis abundance 2035). Specific 'Solve Everything' publication + Wissner-Gross attribution.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "conv_cues": "published blueprint; specific year",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2035,
  "timeframe": "by 2035",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Wissner-Gross + Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (2026-2027 information) milestones tracked publicly",
      "source": "https://www.solveeverything.org/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "solveeverything.org publishes progress dashboard or Wissner-Gross/Diamandis publication tracks Phase 1 (math, code, physics formal-verification) milestones"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Wissner-Gross/Diamandis publish progress update at end of 18-month critical window",
      "source": "https://axisofeasy.com/best-of-the-web/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-why-the-next-18-months-will-define-the-next-cent/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2027-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2027-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public review document, podcast, or essay assesses progress against the 'next 18 months will define the next century' framing from Feb 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Industrial Intelligence Stack adoption — first major industrial sector publicly applies blueprint framework",
      "source": "https://gist.github.com/seansilva-adam-bot/eb35b2030bedaa91959afeb7cb69aef0",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-12-31",
        "from": "2027-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Major chemicals, materials, energy, or pharma firm publicly cites Industrial Intelligence Stack approach in capex strategy or technology roadmap"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Virtual Cell milestone — Phase 2 anchor of Solve Everything blueprint",
      "source": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everything",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "expected_date": "2029-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2031-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Major lab (DeepMind, Arc Institute, Recursion) releases foundation model claimed as Virtual Cell achieving end-to-end cellular simulation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier-lab claim of ASI emergence (artificial superintelligence)",
      "source": "https://metatrends.substack.com/p/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-and",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "expected_date": "2031-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2034-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, xAI or comparable lab publicly claims ASI threshold reached, with measurable benchmark cited"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "lab
... (truncated)