Attainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physical and mathematical solutions — Wissner-Gross co-authored 'Solve Everything' blueprint Feb 2026 articulating this 2035 post-scarcity horizon.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Prediction text
Attainment of total material abundance by 2035 driven by AI-optimized physical and mathematical solutions — Wissner-Gross co-authored 'Solve Everything' blueprint Feb 2026 articulating this 2035 post-scarcity horizon. | ASI emergence; material-abundance milestones
Key catalyst: ASI emergence; material-abundance milestones
Watch events: Next "Solve Everything" update or annual review
Resolution evidence
'Solve Everything' Feb 2026 publication with Diamandis, Blundin, Wissner-Gross; 2035 post-scarcity aggressive but internally consistent with cohort.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingWissner-Gross + Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (2026-2027 information) milestones tracked publiclyHow: solveeverything.org publishes progress dashboard or Wissner-Gross/Diamandis publication tracks Phase 1 (math, code, physics formal-verification) milestonesSource: https://www.solveeverything.org/conf 55%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingWissner-Gross/Diamandis publish progress update at end of 18-month critical windowHow: Public review document, podcast, or essay assesses progress against the 'next 18 months will define the next century' framing from Feb 2026Source: https://axisofeasy.com/best-of-the-web/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-why-the-next-18-months-will-define-the-next-cent/conf 70%
- 2027-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingIndustrial Intelligence Stack adoption — first major industrial sector publicly applies blueprint frameworkHow: Major chemicals, materials, energy, or pharma firm publicly cites Industrial Intelligence Stack approach in capex strategy or technology roadmapSource: https://gist.github.com/seansilva-adam-bot/eb35b2030bedaa91959afeb7cb69aef0conf 40%
- 2028-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingVirtual Cell milestone — Phase 2 anchor of Solve Everything blueprintHow: Major lab (DeepMind, Arc Institute, Recursion) releases foundation model claimed as Virtual Cell achieving end-to-end cellular simulationSource: https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everythingconf 45%
- 2028-01-01 → 2034-12-31pendingFrontier-lab claim of ASI emergence (artificial superintelligence)How: OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, xAI or comparable lab publicly claims ASI threshold reached, with measurable benchmark citedSource: https://metatrends.substack.com/p/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-andconf 35%
- 2032-01-01 → 2036-12-31pendingCascade: Phase 3 (2032-2035) planetary-scale solutions — first dial-tone-reliable AI-managed energy or food utilityHow: Major utility, food-system, or infrastructure operator deploys AI-managed system at planetary scale meeting 'dial-tone-reliable' framing — measurable uptime and capacity claimsSource: https://burgessing.substack.com/p/my-weekend-read-solve-everythingconf 30%
- 2035-03-10pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2035-05-18pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2035-07-25pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
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No outgoing edges.
Prerequisites (3)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_AGI_SLOW_2031 | AGI slow: Schmidt/Hassabis 5-10 year path | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK07 | Labor Political Backlash (UBI Mandate / AI Tax) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.598 | manifold | What will be the total prize in the third Manifold Prize Drawing? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-24 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Cited-Other",
"context": "Sharpens 232_056 (every discipline flattened Wissner-Gross) and 230_034 (Diamandis abundance 2035). Specific 'Solve Everything' publication + Wissner-Gross attribution.",
"to_year": 2035,
"conv_cues": "published blueprint; specific year",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2035,
"timeframe": "by 2035",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Wissner-Gross + Diamandis 'Solve Everything' Phase 1 (2026-2027 information) milestones tracked publicly",
"source": "https://www.solveeverything.org/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_date": "2027-03-17",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-12-31",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "solveeverything.org publishes progress dashboard or Wissner-Gross/Diamandis publication tracks Phase 1 (math, code, physics formal-verification) milestones"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Wissner-Gross/Diamandis publish progress update at end of 18-month critical window",
"source": "https://axisofeasy.com/best-of-the-web/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-why-the-next-18-months-will-define-the-next-cent/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"expected_date": "2027-12-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2028-06-30",
"from": "2027-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Public review document, podcast, or essay assesses progress against the 'next 18 months will define the next century' framing from Feb 2026"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Industrial Intelligence Stack adoption — first major industrial sector publicly applies blueprint framework",
"source": "https://gist.github.com/seansilva-adam-bot/eb35b2030bedaa91959afeb7cb69aef0",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.4,
"expected_date": "2028-12-31",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2030-12-31",
"from": "2027-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Major chemicals, materials, energy, or pharma firm publicly cites Industrial Intelligence Stack approach in capex strategy or technology roadmap"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Virtual Cell milestone — Phase 2 anchor of Solve Everything blueprint",
"source": "https://theinnermostloop.substack.com/p/solve-everything",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.45,
"expected_date": "2029-12-31",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2031-12-31",
"from": "2028-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Major lab (DeepMind, Arc Institute, Recursion) releases foundation model claimed as Virtual Cell achieving end-to-end cellular simulation"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Frontier-lab claim of ASI emergence (artificial superintelligence)",
"source": "https://metatrends.substack.com/p/how-we-get-to-abundance-by-2035-and",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.35,
"expected_date": "2031-07-02",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2034-12-31",
"from": "2028-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI, Anthropic, DeepMind, xAI or comparable lab publicly claims ASI threshold reached, with measurable benchmark cited"
},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
"lab
... (truncated)