Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs
Predictor: Sam Altman · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Sam Altman predicts another architecture breakthrough as big as transformers over LSTMs | I bet there is another new architecture defined that is going to be like as big of a gain as transformers were over LSTMs.
Verbatim quote
I bet there is another new architecture defined that is going to be like as big of a gain as transformers were over LSTMs.
Predictor: Sam Altman
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Sam Altman is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-15hitSam Altman publicly states transformer is not the end; new architecture as revolutionary as transformers/LSTMs neededHow: Public Altman statement (interview / blog / podcast) explicitly framing post-transformer architecture as needed for AGISource: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
- 2026-03-15hitMamba-3 publication validates active progress on post-transformer SSM lineHow: Mamba-3 paper / preprint confirms continued architectural progress beyond pure transformer attentionSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
- 2026-07-24pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-10-18pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingOpenAI Q1 next-year model releases reference 5.2-architecture gains (Altman roadmap commitment)How: OpenAI ships frontier model whose technical post or Altman commentary credits a substantively novel architecture component for the gainSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2027-01-12pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-09-30pendingIndependent benchmark verification: novel architecture matches or beats transformer SOTA at matched computeHow: Public leaderboard / paper result: a non-pure-transformer architecture matches/beats best transformer at equal training FLOPs on a recognized evalSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingTransformer-LSTM-magnitude leap consensus emerges (≥ 3 frontier labs adopt or replicate the new architecture)How: Three or more of OpenAI/Anthropic/Google DeepMind/Meta/xAI publicly adopt or commit to the new architecture for flagship models, paralleling 2017-2020 transformer adoption arcSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_FAST_2027 AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | 30.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.209 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.091 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.066 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.041 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_FAST_2027 | AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"context": "I bet there is another new architecture defined that is going to be like as big of a gain as transformers were over LSTMs. And I think you finally have models that are smart enough to help do that kind of research.",
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "I bet there is another new architecture defined that is going to be like as big of a gain as transformers were over LSTMs.",
"conv_cues": "I bet",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Sam Altman publicly states transformer is not the end; new architecture as revolutionary as transformers/LSTMs needed",
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"expected_date": "2026-02-15",
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},
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"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
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"to": "2027-03-31",
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{
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{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
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"ordinal": -1,
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"confidence": 0.4,
"sourc
... (truncated)