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245_009predictionBiotech/LongevityAI-timing

Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#245 "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
44.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Breaking plastic-degradation technology could become a supplement that breaks microplastics in the gut before absorption | Imagine a supplement you could take that actually breaks down the bonds of the microplastics in your gut before it gets absorbed.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI + Synthetic Biology: The Most Transformative Technology in Human History | Ben Lamm (Colossal)"
Imagine a supplement you could take that actually breaks down the bonds of the microplastics in your gut before it gets absorbed.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 44.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-02-12hitNovel PETase discovery via in-silico methods (bioRxiv preprint Feb 2026) advances thermostability
    How: bioRxiv preprint confirms novel PETase variants with improved temperature/pH tolerance — a prerequisite for any oral / gut application
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  2. 2026-02-12hitEngineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradation
    How: FEBS Journal publishes engineered PETase paper demonstrating substantial activity improvement
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 90%
  3. 2026-07-20pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2026-10-10pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingPETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstrated
    How: Peer-reviewed paper demonstrates a plastic-degrading enzyme variant retaining substantial activity across human-GI conditions — critical gating step for any supplement form
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  6. 2026-12-31pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2026-09-01 → 2027-09-30pendingFirst published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorption
    How: Peer-reviewed animal study showing oral enzyme delivery reduces microplastic systemic uptake or fecal microplastic load
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 25%
  8. 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingSupplement company / startup announces clinical work toward microplastic-degrading oral product
    How: Public company / startup announcement of regulatory pathway (FDA pre-IND, NDIN, or equivalent) for oral plastic-degrading enzyme product
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 15%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z44.7%-1.3pp
Network propagation: 46.0% → 44.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.0%-2.7pp
Network propagation: 48.7% → 46.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z48.7%-5.3pp
Network propagation: 54.0% → 48.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z54.0%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 56.0% → 54.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.0%-4.0pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_FAST_2027
AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09
30.0%0.6000.050-0.232
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.098
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.071
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.600+0.043

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.609fdaFDA NDA016730: DEXTROSE 5% IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (DEXTROSE) — B BRAUNmentionspending2026-05-12
0.597fdaFDA ANDA060469: TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE (TETRACYCLINE HYDROCHLORIDE) — IMPAX LABSmentionspending2026-04-17
0.591fdaFDA NDA217186: CREXONT (CARBIDOPA) — IMPAXmentionspending2026-05-15
0.589fdaFDA ANDA210672: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION ADULT (ALPHA-TOCOPHEROL ACETATE) — APOTEXmentionspending2026-04-09
0.587fdaFDA ANDA210273: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION ADULT (ALPHA-TOCOPHEROL ACETATE) — APOTEXmentionspending2026-04-09
0.586fdaFDA ANDA090505: DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE (DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE) — IMPAX LABS INCmentionspending2026-04-09
0.584fdaFDA ANDA076521: CARBIDOPA AND LEVODOPA (CARBIDOPA) — IMPAX LABSmentionspending2026-05-28
0.582fdaFDA ANDA210671: MULTIPLE VITAMINS INJECTION PEDIATRIC (ASCORBIC ACID) — APOTEXmentionspending2026-04-21
0.581fdaFDA ANDA090431: DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE (DOXYCYCLINE HYCLATE) — RISINGmentionspending2026-04-09
0.580fdaFDA NDA018900: METRO I.V. IN PLASTIC CONTAINER (METRONIDAZOLE) — B BRAUNmentionspending2026-04-23

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Goa6c6Qz__I",
  "mode": "SPECULATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Imagine a supplement you could take that actually breaks down the bonds of the microplastics in your gut before it gets absorbed.",
  "verbatim": "Imagine a supplement you could take that actually breaks down the bonds of the microplastics in your gut before it gets absorbed.",
  "conv_cues": "imagine",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Novel PETase discovery via in-silico methods (bioRxiv preprint Feb 2026) advances thermostability",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.02.12.705489v1.full",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-12",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "bioRxiv preprint confirms novel PETase variants with improved temperature/pH tolerance — a prerequisite for any oral / gut application"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Engineered PETase enzyme paper (Bhattacharya et al.) published in FEBS Journal — highly active polyester degradation",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://febs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/febs.70228",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FEBS Journal publishes engineered PETase paper demonstrating substantial activity improvement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-10",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "PETase/MHETase variant with gut-compatible pH/temperature window (pH 1-7, 37C) demonstrated",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "source_url": "https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenvironau.5c00033",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed paper demonstrates a plastic-degrading enzyme variant retaining substantial activity across human-GI conditions — critical gating step for any supplement form"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "First published in-vivo (animal model) study of orally-delivered plastic-degrading enzyme on microplastic absorption",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.25,
      "source_url": "https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2024/fd/d4fd00014e",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "
... (truncated)