AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion.

AGI by 2027; superintelligence by 2030 — full automation of AI researchers in 2027 triggers post-AGI intelligence explosion. | Effective-compute 5 OOM milestone

Key catalyst: Effective-compute 5 OOM milestone

Watch events: Effective compute OOM progression; frontier model capability jumps; sovereign Project emergence.

2024-2026 compute buildout (Stargate, xAI Colossus, Meta/MSFT capex) tracks Aschenbrenner physical-compute 0.5 OOMs/yr trendline.

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "AGI→ASI",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Researcher",
  "caveats": "Assumes continued 5 OOM effective-compute trajectory; assumes no regulatory/geopolitical shock halts scaling.",
  "context": "Core 'Situational Awareness' (June 2024) thesis: deterministic trendlines from GPT-2 → GPT-4 extrapolate to AGI ~2027.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "conv_cues": "explicit timeline; researcher thesis",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027 / 2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Aschenbrenner publicly reaffirms AGI-by-2027 thesis",
      "notes": "Aschenbrenner's $1.5B Situational Awareness fund maintained on this thesis.",
      "source": "https://situational-awareness.ai/from-agi-to-superintelligence/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://situational-awareness.ai/from-agi-to-superintelligence/",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Leopold Aschenbrenner publicly reaffirms AGI-by-2027 thesis (essay, podcast, fund letter, conference talk) post 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier model demonstrates verifiable autonomous AI-research contribution",
      "notes": "Aschenbrenner's 'proto-automated researcher' threshold. Currently at maybe 10-15% with Devin / Sakana / FunSearch.",
      "source": "https://www.marketingaiinstitute.com/blog/aschenbrenner-agi-superintelligence",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.marketingaiinstitute.com/blog/aschenbrenner-agi-superintelligence",
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Major AI lab (OpenAI / Anthropic / DeepMind / xAI) publicly confirms a frontier model contributed materially (>=20% of authorship credit) to peer-reviewed AI research paper"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-02-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI training compute crosses 5e27 FLOP threshold (5 OOM beyond GPT-4)",
      "notes": "Aschenbrenner's effective-compute 5-OOM milestone is the key load-bearing premise of the AGI-2027 thesis.",
      "source": "https://situational-awareness.ai/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://situational-awareness.ai/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Single training run reported (Epoch AI / official lab announcement) at >=5e27 FLOP — 5 orders of magnitude above GPT-4's ~2e25"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Industry survey shows >=30% of AI research engineers report 3x+ AI-driven speedup",
      "notes": "3x speedup is Aschenbrenner's mid-2026 milestone. Survey evidence likely surfaces by 2027.",
      "source": "https://every.to/napkin-math/the-agi-in-2027-thesis",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://every.to/napkin-math/the-agi-in-2027-thesis",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",

... (truncated)