Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output

Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output | terrafab is expected to produce on the order of 70% of TSMC's output

terrafab is expected to produce on the order of 70% of TSMC's output

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "70% of TSMC output",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "terrafab is expected to produce on the order of 70% of TSMC's output",
  "verbatim": "terrafab is expected to produce on the order of 70% of TSMC's output",
  "conv_cues": "expected to produce",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Musk announces Terafab semiconductor fab (Tesla/xAI/SpaceX joint)",
      "source": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terafab",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-21",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-21",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public Musk/Tesla/SpaceX announcement of vertically-integrated 2nm fab with target 100k wafer-starts/month; covered by Reuters/Bloomberg/Tom's Hardware"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Intel publicly joins Terafab as foundry-manufacturing partner",
      "source": "https://electrek.co/2026/04/07/tesla-terafab-intel-joins-foundry/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-07",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-07",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Intel + Musk public announcement / press release confirming Intel will provide foundry expertise/capacity for Terafab production"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Terafab groundbreaking / construction permit filed",
      "source": "https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/semiconductors/analyzing-elon-musks-terafab-a-step-towards-tesla-and-spacexs-partial-vertical-integration-or-an-unattainable-dream",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2027-05-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public construction permit filed (Texas/Arizona/Ohio site) OR groundbreaking ceremony confirming Terafab transitioning from announcement to physical build; per state regulator filings or local news"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Terafab will reach 70% of TSMC's output",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "242_006",
      "expected_date": "2027-05-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Terafab tool installation / wafer test run",
      "source": "https://electrek.co/2026/03/16/teslas-terafab-chip-fab-ambitions-ignore-its-total-lack-of-semiconductor-experience/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.15,
      "expected_date": "2029-09-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-
... (truncated)