Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per month
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per month | his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers... Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output.
Verbatim quote
his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers... Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output.
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: fab_construction_3y
Greenfield semiconductor fab construction within 3 years of announce
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-21overdueTerafab announcement (Musk Mar 21, 2026)How: Tesla / xAI / SpaceX joint press release announces Terafab Austin venture; Wikipedia / Electrek confirm announcement dateSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-04-30overdueIntel 14A process selection finalizedHow: Tesla / Intel joint announcement that 14A node will fabricate Tesla AI5 wafers at Terafab facility per DCD coverageSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
- 2026-07-08pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-09-16pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingTesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) productionHow: Tesla earnings call or 10-Q references AI5 chip tape-out / engineering sample fabrication at Terafab partner foundrySource: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
- 2026-11-25pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst Terafab module groundbreaking / construction startHow: Local Austin permits, Tesla press materials, or aerial imagery document start of construction on first 100k WSPM module of Terafab campusSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingAI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate)How: Tesla earnings call or press release confirms AI5 volume production at run-rate approaching 100k wafer starts per monthSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2027-09-30pendingPath to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly)How: Independent semiconductor analyst (TrendForce, SemiAnalysis, IBS) publishes quantitative assessment that Terafab is on or off track to multi-module 1M WSPM ambitionSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.9827654780547735,
"kappa": 0.875,
"base_rate": 0.58,
"predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": -0.03806595934676151,
"bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 31% inside / 68% outside (TRF=0.983, base_rate=0.580 from fab_construction_3y)",
"inside_prior": 0.49048465912665956,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.74375,
"label": "Intel 14A process selection finalized",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-use-intel-14a-technology-at-its-20bn-terafab-project-in-austin/",
"adjusted_llr": -0.30156467415544724,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla / Intel joint announcement that 14A node will fabricate Tesla AI5 wafers at Terafab facility per DCD coverage"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.3120641653616585,
"outside_weight": 0.6879358346383415,
"posterior_prob": 0.5289826821659477,
"posterior_logit": -0.33963063350220873,
"predictor_brier": 0.03667,
"inside_posterior": 0.4158992033922095,
"blended_posterior": 0.5289826821659477,
"reference_class_id": "fab_construction_3y",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.30156467415544724,
"predictor_n_resolved": 15
}Raw metadata
{
"trf": 0.9943595071806628,
"kappa": 0.8684,
"base_rate": 0.58,
"predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
"bayesian_v2": true,
"prior_logit": 0.21325100391189805,
"bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
"blend_reason": "blend 30% inside / 69% outside (TRF=0.994, base_rate=0.580 from fab_construction_3y)",
"inside_prior": 0.553111628041127,
"kappa_source": "predictor_table",
"n_milestones": 1,
"blend_applied": true,
"contributions": [
{
"llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"kappa": 0.8249799999999999,
"label": "Terafab announcement (Musk Mar 21, 2026)",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terafab",
"adjusted_llr": -0.33450060488707345,
"expected_date": "2026-03-21",
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla / xAI / SpaceX joint press release announces Terafab Austin venture; Wikipedia / Electrek confirm announcement date"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
"inside_source": "history_v2",
"inside_weight": 0.303948344973536,
"outside_weight": 0.6960516550264639,
"posterior_prob": 0.5468158009578921,
"posterior_logit": -0.1212496009751754,
"predictor_brier": 0.02669,
"inside_posterior": 0.46972468163416264,
"blended_posterior": 0.5468158009578921,
"reference_class_id": "fab_construction_3y",
"total_adjusted_llr": -0.33450060488707345,
"predictor_n_resolved": 14
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_FAST_2027 AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | 30.0% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.231 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.099 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.072 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.044 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_AGI_FAST_2027 | AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "100K initial to 1M wafers/month (70% of TSMC annual output)",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "Based on Tesla's announcement",
"context": "his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers... Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output.",
"verbatim": "his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers... Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output.",
"conv_cues": "heading to",
"direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
"timeframe": "Future (Tesla announced)",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Terafab announcement (Musk Mar 21, 2026)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terafab",
"expected_date": "2026-03-21",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla / xAI / SpaceX joint press release announces Terafab Austin venture; Wikipedia / Electrek confirm announcement date"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Intel 14A process selection finalized",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "overdue",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-use-intel-14a-technology-at-its-20bn-terafab-project-in-austin/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
"miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla / Intel joint announcement that 14A node will fabricate Tesla AI5 wafers at Terafab facility per DCD coverage"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-07-08",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-09-16",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) production",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://teslahubs.com/blogs/tips/everything-tesla-announced-during-its-q1-2026-earnings-call-summary-recap",
"expected_date": "2026-09-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-07-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla earnings call or 10-Q references AI5 chip tape-out / engineering sample fabrication at Terafab partner foundry"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-11-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction start",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://medium.com/@noahbean3396/tesla-is-building-t
... (truncated)