← Cockpit
240_025predictionAIAI-timing

Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per month

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
44.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2027-09-30
Edges in / out
4 / 0
Tickers exposed
35

Prediction text

Tesla's Terra Fab initial capacity 100,000 wafers, scaling to 1 million per month | his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers... Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output.

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers... Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output.

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: fab_construction_3y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.611

Greenfield semiconductor fab construction within 3 years of announce

Base rate
58.0%
7/12 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 44.6% → blend 44.6% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

10 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 44.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 2 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-03-21overdueTerafab announcement (Musk Mar 21, 2026)
    How: Tesla / xAI / SpaceX joint press release announces Terafab Austin venture; Wikipedia / Electrek confirm announcement date
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-04-30overdueIntel 14A process selection finalized
    How: Tesla / Intel joint announcement that 14A node will fabricate Tesla AI5 wafers at Terafab facility per DCD coverage
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  3. 2026-07-08pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  4. 2026-09-16pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  5. 2026-07-01 → 2026-12-31pendingTesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) production
    How: Tesla earnings call or 10-Q references AI5 chip tape-out / engineering sample fabrication at Terafab partner foundry
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 65%
  6. 2026-11-25pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  7. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst Terafab module groundbreaking / construction start
    How: Local Austin permits, Tesla press materials, or aerial imagery document start of construction on first 100k WSPM module of Terafab campus
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  8. 2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingAI5 volume production begins (initial 100k WSPM run-rate)
    How: Tesla earnings call or press release confirms AI5 volume production at run-rate approaching 100k wafer starts per month
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  9. 2027-09-30pendingPath to 1M WSPM / 70% TSMC scale becomes credible (or slips publicly)
    How: Independent semiconductor analyst (TrendForce, SemiAnalysis, IBS) publishes quantitative assessment that Terafab is on or off track to multi-module 1M WSPM ambition
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z44.6%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 45.8% → 44.6%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z45.8%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 48.1% → 45.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z48.1%-4.8pp
Network propagation: 52.9% → 48.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z52.9%+3.9pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.416 blend=0.529 LLR=-0.302 κ=0.88 w_in=0.31 fab_construction_3y
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.9827654780547735,
  "kappa": 0.875,
  "base_rate": 0.58,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.03806595934676151,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 31% inside / 68% outside (TRF=0.983, base_rate=0.580 from fab_construction_3y)",
  "inside_prior": 0.49048465912665956,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.74375,
      "label": "Intel 14A process selection finalized",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-use-intel-14a-technology-at-its-20bn-terafab-project-in-austin/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.30156467415544724,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla / Intel joint announcement that 14A node will fabricate Tesla AI5 wafers at Terafab facility per DCD coverage"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3120641653616585,
  "outside_weight": 0.6879358346383415,
  "posterior_prob": 0.5289826821659477,
  "posterior_logit": -0.33963063350220873,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03667,
  "inside_posterior": 0.4158992033922095,
  "blended_posterior": 0.5289826821659477,
  "reference_class_id": "fab_construction_3y",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.30156467415544724,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 15
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z49.0%-5.6pp
Network propagation: 54.7% → 49.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z54.7%-0.6pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.470 blend=0.547 LLR=-0.335 κ=0.87 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.9943595071806628,
  "kappa": 0.8684,
  "base_rate": 0.58,
  "predictor": "Peter Diamandis",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.21325100391189805,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 30% inside / 69% outside (TRF=0.994, base_rate=0.580 from fab_construction_3y)",
  "inside_prior": 0.553111628041127,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.8249799999999999,
      "label": "Terafab announcement (Musk Mar 21, 2026)",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terafab",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.33450060488707345,
      "expected_date": "2026-03-21",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla / xAI / SpaceX joint press release announces Terafab Austin venture; Wikipedia / Electrek confirm announcement date"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.303948344973536,
  "outside_weight": 0.6960516550264639,
  "posterior_prob": 0.5468158009578921,
  "posterior_logit": -0.1212496009751754,
  "predictor_brier": 0.02669,
  "inside_posterior": 0.46972468163416264,
  "blended_posterior": 0.5468158009578921,
  "reference_class_id": "fab_construction_3y",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.33450060488707345,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 14
}
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z55.3%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 58.6% → 55.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z58.6%+3.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.586 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.3%-3.3pp
Network propagation: 58.6% → 55.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z58.6%-1.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.586 w_in=0.30 fab_construction_3y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_AGI_FAST_2027
AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09
30.0%0.6000.050-0.231
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.099
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.072
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.600+0.044

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

35 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

ACNCHGGCTSHIBMINFYWNS

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "100K initial to 1M wafers/month (70% of TSMC annual output)",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Based on Tesla's announcement",
  "context": "his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers... Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output.",
  "verbatim": "his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers... Heading to a million uh wafers uh per per month. Uh roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output.",
  "conv_cues": "heading to",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "timeframe": "Future (Tesla announced)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Terafab announcement (Musk Mar 21, 2026)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terafab",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-21",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla / xAI / SpaceX joint press release announces Terafab Austin venture; Wikipedia / Electrek confirm announcement date"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Intel 14A process selection finalized",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-use-intel-14a-technology-at-its-20bn-terafab-project-in-austin/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla / Intel joint announcement that 14A node will fabricate Tesla AI5 wafers at Terafab facility per DCD coverage"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-08",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla AI5 small-batch (engineering sample) production",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://teslahubs.com/blogs/tips/everything-tesla-announced-during-its-q1-2026-earnings-call-summary-recap",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-07-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla earnings call or 10-Q references AI5 chip tape-out / engineering sample fabrication at Terafab partner foundry"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-11-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Terafab module groundbreaking / construction start",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://medium.com/@noahbean3396/tesla-is-building-t
... (truncated)