AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things

AI systems eventually won't have the ability to do completely new things | It'll get to the point where you don't have the ability to do completely new things

It'll get to the point where you don't have the ability to do completely new things

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "unclear meaning",
  "context": "It'll get to the point where you don't have the ability to do completely new things",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "It'll get to the point where you don't have the ability to do completely new things",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier model release with novel scientific discovery (e.g., new theorem, materials, drug target)",
      "source": "Schmidt thesis benchmark; Anthropic/OpenAI/DeepMind release cadence",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-23",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-31T22:09:40.747869+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-15",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed paper or preprint co-authored with frontier lab claims AI-originated discovery without human prompt-engineered hypothesis"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ARC-AGI-2 or Frontier Math Tier 4 leaderboard plateau (no >5pp gain in 60 days)",
      "source": "ARC Prize 2026 leaderboard; Epoch AI FrontierMath",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.4,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-26",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-06-03T22:11:45.571008+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-21",
        "from": "2026-04-30"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public ARC Prize or Epoch AI leaderboard shows top model score not improving >5 percentage points over rolling 60-day window before display_date"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Public Schmidt restatement or adjacent expert (Hassabis, Amodei) endorses novelty-ceiling thesis",
      "source": "futurist:Eric Schmidt prior statement",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
    
... (truncated)