242_042predictionAIAI-scaling

Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#242 "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242" · source

Prior probability

60.0%

Current probability

49.5%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30

Edges in / out

10 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Trillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest | at this stage, I think it's a fair bet that trillion parameter models are going to propagate all over the world with anyone who has about 50 to 100 million dollars that they're willing to invest

Verbatim quote

From episode "Elon Enters the Chip Race, the S&P 500 Repricing, and Human Drivers Will Become Illegal | EP #242"

at this stage, I think it's a fair bet that trillion parameter models are going to propagate all over the world with anyone who has about 50 to 100 million dollars that they're willing to invest

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.821

Brier

0.0491

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 2

of 9 resolved

Hit rate

33.3%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 49.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 8 fired ✓

2025-01-31hitDeepSeek V3 demonstrates trillion-class capability for ~$5.6M training cost
How: DeepSeek confirms V3 (671B params) training cost ~$5.6M and open-source release
Source: https://www.digitalapplied.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-open-source-multimodalconf 95%
Notes: HIT — confirmed; demonstrates training cost in $50-100M range achievable.
2026-02-15hitDeepSeek V4 releases as 1T-parameter open-source model
How: DeepSeek V4 released with ~1T parameters and Apache 2.0 weights license
Source: https://introl.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-coding-model-february-2026conf 90%
2026-02-13hitZhipu GLM-5 (744B params) trained on 100K Huawei Ascend chips
How: Zhipu releases GLM-5 with 744B params trained on Chinese-domestic chip cluster, 28.5T tokens
Source: https://introl.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-coding-model-february-2026conf 85%
2026-04-29hitNvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.
2026-04-29hitNvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
2026-04-29hitNvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
2026-04-29hitNvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a
2026-04-30hitMoonshot Kimi K2.6 ships as 1T-param MoE open model
How: Moonshot AI confirms Kimi K2.6 with ~1T total params, 32B active per token, openly available
Source: https://developers.redhat.com/articles/2026/01/07/state-open-source-ai-models-2025conf 90%
2026-06-23pendingTrillion parameter models will propagate to anyone with $50-100M to invest
2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pending>=5 distinct organizations release trillion-parameter-class models
How: At least 5 separate orgs (DeepSeek, Moonshot, Zhipu, xAI, etc.) ship trillion-parameter total or active models
Source: Hugging Face leaderboards, Red Hat OSS AI reportconf 85%
Notes: Direct test of propagation claim. 4 already; 1 more triggers hit.
2028-06-25pendingWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.
2030-09-27pendingMost large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.5%-1.2pp

Network propagation: 50.7% → 49.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.7%-2.2pp

Network propagation: 52.9% → 50.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.9%-2.9pp

Network propagation: 55.8% → 52.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.8%-4.2pp

Network propagation: 60.0% → 55.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.600	-0.088
prereq	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang	66.3%	0.600	0.050	-0.076
prereq	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore	68.3%	0.600	0.050	-0.075
killer	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	30.0%	0.050	0.600	-0.060
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.050

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross	53.0%	0.920	0.050	-0.056
prereq	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin	40.8%	0.720	0.050	-0.031
prereq	242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis	36.1%	0.650	0.050	-0.018
prereq	232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis	35.5%	0.700	0.050	+0.013
prereq	244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis	48.4%	0.920	0.050	-0.010

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MU WULF IREN EQIX ALAB APLD ASMIY ASML PLAB NVDA NBIS CRWV AAPL AMT AMZN DELL GOOGL IRM LNVGY META MSFT ORCL SFTBY STX

Adverse (6)

ACN GEN CHGG IBM WNS LRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	SEM_011	Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.	Capital Markets	—
prereq	SEM_027	Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.	Capital Markets	—
prereq	SEM_014	Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).	Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_012	Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.	AI/Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_015	Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.	Policy/Semis	—
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK05	Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	244_019	Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years	Auto/Transport	—
prereq	248_040	Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.	AI	—
prereq	247_023	AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently	AI	—
prereq	232_055	We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.	AI	—
prereq	242_031	Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years	Markets/Stocks	—

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.635	manifold	Will I successfully refer someone for Ṁ1,000?	6%	mentions	pending	2026-05-19
0.620	gdelt	roth tipping point why 86 135102407.html	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-30
0.613	manifold	Will anyone trick me into sending them exactly M$1000 via managram? [Convince the Machine #10]	18%	mentions	pending	2026-05-06
0.611	manifold	Will someone send me 1000 or more mana before this market closes?	20%	mentions	pending	2026-06-02
0.611	manifold	Will this market get between 50-100 unique traders?	47%	mentions	pending	2026-05-24
0.583	manifold	How cheap will fully farm-raised eel get? / 完全養殖ウナギ、いくらまで安くなる？	50%	mentions	pending	2026-05-30
0.578	manifold	How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-25
0.553	manifold	How many copies will Mina the Hollower sell in its first year?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-27

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$50-100M investment",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMLcIWLlcWg",
  "mode": "BET",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Cost coming down too",
  "context": "trillion parameter models are going to propagate all over the world with anyone who has about 50 to 100 million dollars",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "at this stage, I think it's a fair bet that trillion parameter models are going to propagate all over the world with anyone who has about 50 to 100 million dollars that they're willing to invest",
  "conv_cues": "fair bet",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "present stage",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek V3 demonstrates trillion-class capability for ~$5.6M training cost",
      "notes": "HIT — confirmed; demonstrates training cost in $50-100M range achievable.",
      "source": "https://www.digitalapplied.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-open-source-multimodal",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.digitalapplied.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-open-source-multimodal",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "DeepSeek confirms V3 (671B params) training cost ~$5.6M and open-source release"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek V4 releases as 1T-parameter open-source model",
      "source": "https://introl.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-coding-model-february-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-coding-model-february-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "DeepSeek V4 released with ~1T parameters and Apache 2.0 weights license"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Zhipu GLM-5 (744B params) trained on 100K Huawei Ascend chips",
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      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/deepseek-v4-trillion-parameter-coding-model-february-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Zhipu releases GLM-5 with 744B params trained on Chinese-domestic chip cluster, 28.5T tokens"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublin
... (truncated)