Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently.

Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently. | these plugins and the marketplaces of the plugins are so absurdly simple that I would reasonably expect these plugins are going to get just built in since they're just scaffolding anyway, built into the next baseline version of the model and won't even need to exist independently in the future.

these plugins and the marketplaces of the plugins are so absurdly simple that I would reasonably expect these plugins are going to get just built in since they're just scaffolding anyway, built into the next baseline version of the model and won't even need to exist independently in the future.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "these plugins and the marketplaces of the plugins are so absurdly simple that I would reasonably expect these plugins are going to get just built in since they're just scaffolding anyway, built into the next baseline version of the model and won't even need to exist independently in the future.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "these plugins and the marketplaces of the plugins are so absurdly simple that I would reasonably expect these plugins are going to get just built in since they're just scaffolding anyway, built into the next baseline version of the model and won't even need to exist independently in the future.",
  "conv_cues": "I would reasonably expect",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next baseline model release",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Plugins/marketplaces will get built into baseline models and won't need to exist independently.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "235_010",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-18",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic ships built-in tool-use / native MCP-like capability in baseline Claude",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Default Claude product (claude.ai or API) gains first-party native tools (web, code, files) without third-party plugin install."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI deprecates or downgrades the third-party GPT/plugin marketplace",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public deprecation notice, schema freeze, or a halt of new plugin onboarding in the OpenAI plugin/GPT store."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Major model release ships with tools that subsume
... (truncated)