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231_001predictionAIAI-scaling

Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
41.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Anthropic model family is closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement today. | I do think anthropic I if I had to say which set of models which model family is the closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement right now today since it's live February 17th, 2026. It's the anthropic family. It's not open or Google.

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
I do think anthropic I if I had to say which set of models which model family is the closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement right now today since it's live February 17th, 2026. It's the anthropic family. It's not open or Google.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓
  1. 2026-03-31hitAnthropic 'Mythos' frontier model preview disclosed with self-correcting recursive errors
    How: Anthropic publicly previews next-major model (Mythos/successor) with documented capability to identify and correct its own errors recursively without human input
    Source: red.anthropic.com Claude Mythos Preview; AISI evaluation of Mythos cyber capabilitiesconf 90%
    Notes: HIT — Mythos Preview demonstrates recursive self-correction at frontier safety level.
  2. 2026-04-01hitResponsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious risk
    How: Anthropic publishes RSP update changing 'halt' to 'delay' provision for catastrophic-risk thresholds
    Source: Anthropic Frontier Safety Roadmapconf 88%
    Notes: HIT (negative for safety) — RSP softened to 'delay only when leading the race AND risks deemed catastrophic'. Read as accelerating recursive-improvement risk.
  3. 2026-04-15hitAnthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal)
    How: Anthropic publicly states or third-party reporting confirms Claude writes >=70% of code used in next-generation Claude training
    Source: abit.ee — Claude now writes up to 90% of the code for its own future versions (Anthropic 2026)conf 92%
    Notes: HIT — Anthropic confirmed Claude writes 70-90% of code for its own future versions; one researcher ran 6 copies each managing 28 parallel instances conducting experiments simultaneously. Direct evidence of recursive self-improvement behavior.
  4. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAnthropic Institute publishes recursive-self-improvement governance framework
    How: Anthropic Institute publishes peer-reviewed or formal paper on RSI governance, oversight signals, or shutdown protocols
    Source: Anthropic Institute announcementconf 65%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFrontier model training run exceeds 1e27 FLOPs at Anthropic before competitors
    How: Disclosed or estimated training compute for Anthropic's next major model exceeds 1e27 FLOPs ahead of GPT-6/Gemini 3 equivalents
    Source: Epoch AI compute tracker, Anthropic model cardsconf 45%
    Notes: Cascade — required for the 'closest to singularity' claim to materialize beyond June 2026 window.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z41.3%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 42.3% → 41.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z42.3%-1.8pp
Network propagation: 44.1% → 42.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.1%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 44.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.500-0.071
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.5000.050-0.061
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5000.050-0.060
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.500-0.048
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.042

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.9200.050-0.126
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.085
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.080
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.067
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.040

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.682github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.98.1mentionspending2026-05-04
0.682github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.86.0mentionspending2026-03-18
0.677github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.78.0mentionspending2026-02-05
0.675github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.81.0mentionspending2026-02-18
0.674github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.105.2mentionspending2026-05-29
0.671github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.74.1mentionspending2025-11-19
0.668github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.107.0mentionspending2026-06-06
0.668github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.85.0mentionspending2026-03-16
0.667github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.105.1mentionspending2026-05-29
0.666github_releaseanthropics/anthropic-sdk-python v0.90.0mentionspending2026-04-07

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "anthropic I if I had to say which set of models which model family is the closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement right now today since it's live February 17th, 2026. It's the anthropic family. It's not open or Google.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I do think anthropic I if I had to say which set of models which model family is the closest to embodying the singularity and recursive self-improvement right now today since it's live February 17th, 2026. It's the anthropic family. It's not open or Google.",
  "conv_cues": "I do think; if I had to say",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "right now / near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic 'Mythos' frontier model preview disclosed with self-correcting recursive errors",
      "notes": "HIT — Mythos Preview demonstrates recursive self-correction at frontier safety level.",
      "source": "red.anthropic.com Claude Mythos Preview; AISI evaluation of Mythos cyber capabilities",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://red.anthropic.com/2026/mythos-preview/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic publicly previews next-major model (Mythos/successor) with documented capability to identify and correct its own errors recursively without human input"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Responsible Scaling Policy revised — removes commitment to halt on serious risk",
      "notes": "HIT (negative for safety) — RSP softened to 'delay only when leading the race AND risks deemed catastrophic'. Read as accelerating recursive-improvement risk.",
      "source": "Anthropic Frontier Safety Roadmap",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.88,
      "source_url": "https://www.anthropic.com/responsible-scaling-policy/roadmap",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic publishes RSP update changing 'halt' to 'delay' provision for catastrophic-risk thresholds"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic discloses Claude writes 70-90% of own training code (recursive self-improvement signal)",
      "notes": "HIT — Anthropic confirmed Claude writes 70-90% of code for its own future versions; one researcher ran 6 copies each managing 28 parallel instances conducting experiments simultaneously. Direct evidence of recursive self-improvement behavior.",
      "source": "abit.ee — Claude now writes up to 90% of the code for its own future versions (Anthropic 2026)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://abit.ee/en/artificial-intelligence/anthropic-claude-claude-code-ai-recursive-self-improvement-ai-safety-development-automation-en",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic publicly states or third-party reporting confirms Claude writes >=70% of code used in next-generation Claude training"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
... (truncated)