Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source
Prediction text
Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model, the the the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon when finally the Chinese openweight models finally catch up with the American closed prototypically frontier models.
Verbatim quote
the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model, the the the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon when finally the Chinese openweight models finally catch up with the American closed prototypically frontier models.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
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Reference class
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Probability over time
Milestone chain
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.400 | -0.062 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.055 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.400 | -0.045 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.192 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.146 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.135 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.112 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.089 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.690 | manifold | Will DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026? | 5% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.670 | manifold | Will a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027? | 32% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-31 |
| 0.626 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v5.8.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.611 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.8.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-04-26 |
| 0.609 | manifold | Will the wild population of North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become Extinct by 2100? | 82% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-24 |
| 0.608 | manifold | Any new Veo model released during Google I/O | 12% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-18 |
| 0.607 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.16.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-02-09 |
| 0.603 | github_release | meta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.4 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-09-25 |
| 0.595 | github_release | meta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.3 | — | mentions | pending | 2024-07-23 |
| 0.589 | polymarket | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | 33% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
Raw metadata
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"caveats": "Alex notes it hasn't happened yet and may not",
"context": "the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model, the the the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon when finally the Chinese openweight models finally catch up with the American closed prototypically frontier models. That hasn't happened yet. It may happen.",
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... (truncated)