← Cockpit
231_015predictionAIAI-scaling

Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
40.0%
Current probability
34.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
2/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models. | the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model, the the the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon when finally the Chinese openweight models finally catch up with the American closed prototypically frontier models.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model, the the the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon when finally the Chinese openweight models finally catch up with the American closed prototypically frontier models.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 40%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 34.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 34%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z34.0%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 35.4% → 34.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z35.4%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 37.2% → 35.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z37.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 40.0% → 37.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.400-0.062
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.4000.050-0.055
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.4000.050-0.054
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.400-0.045
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4000.050-0.030

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.9200.050-0.192
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.146
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.135
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.112
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.089

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.690manifoldWill DeepSeek release a model named DeepSeek-R2 by May 31, 2026?5%mentionspending2026-05-13
0.670manifoldWill a US open-weights LLM outrank every Chinese open-weights LLM on LMArena at the end of 2027?32%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.626github_releasehuggingface/transformers v5.8.1mentionspending2026-05-13
0.611github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.8.0mentionspending2023-04-26
0.609manifoldWill the wild population of North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become Extinct by 2100?82%mentionspending2026-04-24
0.608manifoldAny new Veo model released during Google I/O12%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.607github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.16.0mentionspending2026-02-09
0.603github_releasemeta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.4mentionspending2024-09-25
0.595github_releasemeta-llama/llama-cookbook v0.0.3mentionspending2024-07-23
0.589polymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?33%mentionspending2026-05-06

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Alex notes it hasn't happened yet and may not",
  "context": "the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model, the the the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon when finally the Chinese openweight models finally catch up with the American closed prototypically frontier models. That hasn't happened yet. It may happen.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "cited_by": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "verbatim": "the rumor going around is that the next version of the Deep Seek model, the the the big whalefall moment is going to happen sometime soon when finally the Chinese openweight models finally catch up with the American closed prototypically frontier models.",
  "conv_cues": "rumor; may happen",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "soon",
  "conv_level": "LOW",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Next Deep Seek model release will be when Chinese open-weight models catch up to American frontier models.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "231_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "242_031",
      "expected_date": "2030-09-27",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "attribution": "THIRD_PARTY_CITATION",
  "episode_num": 231,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "target_date": "2026-06-15",
  "display_date": "2026-06-20",
  "episode_date": "2026-02-18",
  "parse_method": "VAGUE midpoint 2026-2026",
  "domain_bucket": "AI",
  "episode_title": "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231",
  "fault_line_id": "F001, F002, F004",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "appears_in_eps": "231",
  "consensus_size": 11,
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_cluster_tags": [
    "C1",
    "C2",
    "C3",
    "C4",
    "C5"
  ],
  "active_end_month": "2
... (truncated)