240_003predictionAIAI-scaling

NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability

60.0%

Current probability

49.5%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30

Edges in / out

10 / 6

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume | They've already locked up 70% of TSMC's uh volume of the 3 nanometer node.

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"

They've already locked up 70% of TSMC's uh volume of the 3 nanometer node.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.821

Brier

0.0491

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 2

of 9 resolved

Hit rate

33.3%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 49.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 6 fired ✓

2025-02-24hitNVIDIA holds ≥70% of CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025
How: TrendForce or industry data reports NVIDIA secured ≥70% of TSMC CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025
Source: https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/02/24/news-tsmc-reportedly-sees-cowos-order-surge-with-nvidia-securing-70-of-2025-cowos-l-capacity/conf 99%
Notes: HIT for the related-but-distinct CoWoS-L claim — directly supports the 'NVIDIA dominates TSMC capacity' narrative. Note: prediction is about 3nm node specifically; this is CoWoS, a packaging metric.
2026-04-10hitJensen Huang publicly requests TSMC 3nm capacity expansion +50%
How: Public reporting confirms Jensen Huang asked TSMC to increase 3nm production by 50% to meet Blackwell/Rubin demand
Source: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/108769/nvidias-unstoppable-ai-chip-demand-has-tsmc-boosting-3nm-production-by-a-huge-50-percent/index.htmlconf 95%
Notes: HIT — confirms NVIDIA is the dominant 3nm buyer and is requesting capacity additions, consistent with 70%+ allocation framing.
2026-04-29hitNvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.
2026-04-29hitNvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
2026-04-29hitNvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
2026-04-29hitNvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a
2026-06-17pendingNVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume
2026-04-01hitTSMC 3nm capacity utilization hits 100% in H1 2026
How: TSMC quarterly earnings or TrendForce data confirms 3nm node capacity utilization at or near 100% for H1 2026
Source: TrendForce / TSMC earnings — N3 family booked 100% in H1 2026conf 93%
Notes: HIT — N3/N5 fully booked. Confirms tight allocation environment supporting NVIDIA dominance claim.
2026-06-01 → 2026-12-31pendingIndependent disclosure of NVIDIA share of TSMC 3nm wafer starts ≥70%
How: TrendForce, DigiTimes or TSMC investor materials disclose NVIDIA's share of 3nm wafer-out / wafer-start volume at ≥70%
Source: TrendForce / DigiTimes / TSMC IR materialsconf 50%
Notes: Open question — current public data confirms NVIDIA dominates CoWoS but specific 3nm wafer-share disclosures are rare.
2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingApple secures meaningful 2nm allocation, leaving NVIDIA dominant on 3nm legacy
How: TSMC investor materials confirm Apple as primary N2 customer while NVIDIA continues to absorb 3nm wafer growth from N3 expansion
Source: TSMC earnings calls / TrendForce node-allocation reportsconf 55%
Notes: Apple traditionally takes leading-edge node first wave; NVIDIA inheriting the 3nm volume share fits the prediction.
2028-06-25pendingWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.
2030-09-27pendingMost large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.5%-1.2pp

Network propagation: 50.7% → 49.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.7%-2.2pp

Network propagation: 52.9% → 50.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.9%-2.9pp

Network propagation: 55.8% → 52.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.8%-4.2pp

Network propagation: 60.0% → 55.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	35.0%	0.050	0.600	-0.088
prereq	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang	66.3%	0.600	0.050	-0.076
prereq	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore	68.3%	0.600	0.050	-0.075
killer	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	30.0%	0.050	0.600	-0.060
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.050

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross	53.0%	0.920	0.050	-0.056
prereq	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin	40.8%	0.720	0.050	-0.031
prereq	242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis	36.1%	0.650	0.050	-0.018
prereq	232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis	35.5%	0.700	0.050	+0.013
prereq	244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis	48.4%	0.920	0.050	-0.010

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MU WULF IREN EQIX ALAB APLD ASMIY ASML PLAB NVDA NBIS CRWV AAPL AMT AMZN DELL GOOGL IRM LNVGY META MSFT ORCL SFTBY STX

Adverse (6)

ACN GEN CHGG IBM WNS LRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	SEM_011	Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.	Capital Markets	—
prereq	SEM_027	Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.	Capital Markets	—
prereq	SEM_014	Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).	Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_012	Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.	AI/Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_015	Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.	Policy/Semis	—
killer	TK09	Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)	—	—
killer	TK05	Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (6)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	244_019	Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years	Auto/Transport	—
prereq	248_040	Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.	AI	—
prereq	247_023	AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently	AI	—
prereq	232_055	We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.	AI	—
prereq	242_031	Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years	Markets/Stocks	—
correlate	COD_TECH_001	A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps	Semis	—

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.651	manifold	How much VRAM will NVIDIA 6090 (or closest equivalent Nvidia GPU) have?	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-27
0.568	manifold	Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?	8%	mentions	pending	2026-05-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "70%",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "They've already locked up 70% of TSMC's uh volume of the 3 nanometer node. Uh and there's just nowhere to go.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "They've already locked up 70% of TSMC's uh volume of the 3 nanometer node.",
  "conv_cues": "already",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Present/forward",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NVIDIA holds ≥70% of CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025",
      "notes": "HIT for the related-but-distinct CoWoS-L claim — directly supports the 'NVIDIA dominates TSMC capacity' narrative. Note: prediction is about 3nm node specifically; this is CoWoS, a packaging metric.",
      "source": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/02/24/news-tsmc-reportedly-sees-cowos-order-surge-with-nvidia-securing-70-of-2025-cowos-l-capacity/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/02/24/news-tsmc-reportedly-sees-cowos-order-surge-with-nvidia-securing-70-of-2025-cowos-l-capacity/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-02-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "TrendForce or industry data reports NVIDIA secured ≥70% of TSMC CoWoS-L advanced packaging capacity for 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Jensen Huang publicly requests TSMC 3nm capacity expansion +50%",
      "notes": "HIT — confirms NVIDIA is the dominant 3nm buyer and is requesting capacity additions, consistent with 70%+ allocation framing.",
      "source": "https://www.tweaktown.com/news/108769/nvidias-unstoppable-ai-chip-demand-has-tsmc-boosting-3nm-production-by-a-huge-50-percent/index.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.tweaktown.com/news/108769/nvidias-unstoppable-ai-chip-demand-has-tsmc-boosting-3nm-production-by-a-huge-50-percent/index.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public reporting confirms Jensen Huang asked TSMC to increase 3nm production by 50% to meet Blackwell/Rubin demand"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "NVIDIA 
... (truncated)