COD_TECH_001predictionSemisTSMC-advanced-node

A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

Prior probability

65.0%

Current probability

50.3%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

3/5

Signal quality

—

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-07-01 – 2027-12-31

Edges in / out

2 / 0

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

A16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps

Predictor: Codex Research Pack

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.850

Brier

—

Hits / Misses

0 / 0

Hit rate

—

Evidence about this node from Codex Research Pack is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 2 fired ✓ · 7 pending

2025-12-15hitTSMC N2 enters volume production at Hsinchu (4Q25)
How: TSMC official statement / TechSpot / Tom's Hardware confirm N2 volume production with GAA nanosheet transistors as planned in 4Q25
Source: https://www.techspot.com/news/110755-tsmc-2nm-n2-process-officially-enters-volume-production.htmlconf 95%
2026-04-29hitTSMC accelerates 5-fab N2 ramp through 2026 (record expansion)
How: TSMC management confirms (earnings call / press) five 2nm fabs in ramp-up during 2026, targeting ~80-100K wafers/month combined by year-end
Source: https://technode.com/2026/04/29/tsmc-accelerates-2nm-expansion-as-ai-demand-surges-targets-record-five-fab-ramp-in-2026/conf 95%
2026-05-01 → 2026-12-31pendingTSMC discloses N2 capacity allocation booked through 2027 (waitlist signal)
How: TSMC earnings call or DigiTimes / SemiAnalysis / Cloud News reporting confirms N2 2026 + 2027 capacity is fully booked, with one-year-out reservation requirement
Source: https://cloudnews.tech/tsmc-wraps-up-the-2nm-roadmap-capacity-for-2026-and-2027-is-exhausted-requiring-a-one-year-reservation/conf 85%
2026-10-02pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
2026-06-01 → 2027-03-31pendingFirst commercial AI accelerator on N2 (Nvidia Rubin / AMD MI400 / Apple) ships
How: At least one major AI-accelerator SKU on TSMC N2 publicly ships to hyperscaler customer; confirmed via vendor press release or hyperscaler deployment announcement
Source: https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/tokenring-2026-1-26-the-2nm-revolution-tsmc-ramps-volume-production-of-n2-silicon-to-fuel-the-ai-decadeconf 70%
2027-01-03pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
2026-09-01 → 2027-06-30pendingA16 (1.6nm) risk production tape-out at TSMC
How: TSMC announces A16 risk production / first customer tape-out (super-power-rail backside-power), per TSMC Tech Symposium or earnings disclosure
Source: https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/tsmc/367995-tsmc-and-the-race-for-2nm-capacity/conf 60%
2027-04-06pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
2027-01-01 → 2027-09-30pendingCascade: hyperscaler 2027 capex guidance cites N2/A16 capacity as bottleneck
How: >=2 hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle) explicitly cite advanced-node wafer availability as gating their 2027 AI buildout in earnings or 10-Q risk factors
Source: https://streetstocker.com/tsmc-2nm-capacity-constraints-2026/conf 55%
2027-07-09pendingA16/N2-class TSMC process availability materially supports 2027 AI accelerator ramps

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z50.3%-2.0pp

Network propagation: 52.3% → 50.3%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z52.3%-1.8pp

Network propagation: 54.1% → 52.3%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z54.1%-3.7pp

Network propagation: 57.7% → 54.1%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z57.7%-7.3pp

Network propagation: 65.0% → 57.7%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

No propagation data yet. Run inference/.venv/bin/python scripts/ops/run_loopy_belief_propagation.py on the droplet, or wait for the Sunday 02:00 UTC weekly cron.

Ticker exposure

6 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (6)

AMAT ASML KLAC LRCX NVDA TSM

Prerequisites (2)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
correlate	INF_004	China has massive latent 'ghost data center' capacity — fully powered facilities sitting empty awaiting compute — such that if export controls relax or are bypassed, China has near-immediate physical capacity to train frontier models equivalent to Anth...	Geopolitics	—
correlate	240_003	NVIDIA will lock up 70%+ of TSMC's 3nm node volume	AI	—

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
No dependents

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2026-12-31	Vera Rubin partner availability target for H2 2026	pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.700	codex_research_pack	NVIDIA - Vera Rubin Opens Agentic AI Frontier	—	mentions	pending	2026-03-16
0.673	github_release	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.25	—	mentions	pending	2024-03-15
0.666	github_release	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.24	—	mentions	pending	2024-01-31
0.665	github_release	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.30	—	mentions	pending	2025-04-28
0.661	github_release	facebookresearch/faiss v1.14.2	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-22
0.655	github_release	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.29.post2	—	mentions	pending	2025-01-31
0.653	github_release	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.32	—	mentions	pending	2025-08-13
0.652	github_release	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.22.post4	—	mentions	pending	2023-10-13
0.650	github_release	facebookresearch/xformers v0.0.28.post2	—	mentions	pending	2024-10-22
0.650	arxiv	AIS-Based Vessel Trajectory Prediction Using Memory-Augmented Neural Networks	—	mentions	pending	2026-06-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "pack_id": "codex_research_event_pack_2026_04_30",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC N2 enters volume production at Hsinchu (4Q25)",
      "source": "https://www.techspot.com/news/110755-tsmc-2nm-n2-process-officially-enters-volume-production.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2025-12-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "TSMC official statement / TechSpot / Tom's Hardware confirm N2 volume production with GAA nanosheet transistors as planned in 4Q25"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC accelerates 5-fab N2 ramp through 2026 (record expansion)",
      "source": "https://technode.com/2026/04/29/tsmc-accelerates-2nm-expansion-as-ai-demand-surges-targets-record-five-fab-ramp-in-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "TSMC management confirms (earnings call / press) five 2nm fabs in ramp-up during 2026, targeting ~80-100K wafers/month combined by year-end"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "TSMC discloses N2 capacity allocation booked through 2027 (waitlist signal)",
      "source": "https://cloudnews.tech/tsmc-wraps-up-the-2nm-roadmap-capacity-for-2026-and-2027-is-exhausted-requiring-a-one-year-reservation/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "TSMC earnings call or DigiTimes / SemiAnalysis / Cloud News reporting confirms N2 2026 + 2027 capacity is fully booked, with one-year-out reservation requirement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First commercial AI accelerator on N2 (Nvidia Rubin / AMD MI400 / Apple) ships",
      "source": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/tokenring-2026-1-26-the-2nm-revolution-tsmc-ramps-volume-production-of-n2-silicon-to-fuel-the-ai-decade",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least one major AI-accelerator SKU on TSMC N2 publicly ships to hyperscaler customer; confirmed via vendor press release or hyperscaler deployment announcement"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-03",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "A16 (1.6nm) risk production tape-out at TSMC",
      "source": "https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/tsmc/367995-tsmc-and-the-race-for-2nm-capacity/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "
... (truncated)