OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans

OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans | they're throttling back on their $1.6 trillion Stargate plans.

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they're throttling back on their $1.6 trillion Stargate plans.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$1.6 trillion",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "OpenAI has actually started to scale back their Stargate plans... They're throttling back on their $1.6 trillion Stargate plans.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "they're throttling back on their $1.6 trillion Stargate plans.",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Current/near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI revises Stargate compute spend target down from $1.4T to ~$600B",
      "source": "https://fintool.com/news/openai-600b-compute-reset",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-01",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI tells investors revised compute target through 2030 is roughly $600B vs late-2025 $1.4T figure (a 57% reduction); confirmed by Fintool, Bloomberg, or comparable financial press"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI pauses or cancels named Stargate site (UK, Norway, or other)",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/openai-halts-uk-stargate-project.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-09",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-09",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI publicly halts at least one named Stargate data-center project (Stargate UK paused April 9, 2026; Stargate Norway transferred to Microsoft April 15, 2026); confirmed via CNBC, Bloomberg"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "OpenAI throttling back on $1.6T Stargate plans",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "240_058",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Microsoft (or another partner) absorbs >50% of capacity originally earmarked for Stargate",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/openai-stargate-norway-project-microsoft.html",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31
... (truncated)