AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise.

AI incidents documented harms will go up way higher beyond the already-reported rise. | if you look at the last bullet AI incidents, you know, that's going up, but it's going to go way way up.

if you look at the last bullet AI incidents, you know, that's going up, but it's going to go way way up.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "AI incidents, you know, that's going up, but it's going to go way way up.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "if you look at the last bullet AI incidents, you know, that's going up, but it's going to go way way up.",
  "conv_cues": "it's going to go way way up",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near-term trend",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI Incident Database YoY growth surpasses 50%",
      "notes": "HIT — Stanford AI Index confirms incidents up 50%+ YoY 2022→2024 and exceeded 2024 total within 10 months of 2025.",
      "source": "https://time.com/7346091/ai-harm-risk/ — incidents already surpassed 2024 total in first 10 months of 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://time.com/7346091/ai-harm-risk/",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Stanford AI Index / TIME / Our World in Data report ≥50% YoY growth in documented AI incidents through October 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI Incident Database adds ≥100 new incidents in three-month window",
      "notes": "HIT — 108 incidents IDs added in the Nov-Jan window.",
      "source": "https://incidentdatabase.ai/blog/incident-report-2025-november-december-2026-january/ — 108 new incident IDs added Nov 2025 - Jan 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://incidentdatabase.ai/blog/incident-report-2025-november-december-2026-january/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "AI Incident Database adds 100+ new incident IDs in a three-month rolling window (e.g., Nov 2025 - Jan 2026)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stanford AI Index 2026 documents 8x growth in malicious-actor AI use vs 2022",
      "notes": "HIT — 8-fold growth in malicious-actor AI use since 2022 documented.",
      "source": "https://time.com/7346091/ai-harm-risk/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https:
... (truncated)