248_021predictionSpaceAI-scaling

Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability

60.0%

Current probability

48.0%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30

Edges in / out

10 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Satellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy. | this is a multiundred billion dollar multi-t trillion dollar economy just launching the satellites which means there will be many many many rockets and that'll be the stepping stone to the moon and to Mars.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"

this is a multiundred billion dollar multi-t trillion dollar economy just launching the satellites which means there will be many many many rockets and that'll be the stepping stone to the moon and to Mars.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.821

Brier

0.0491

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 2

of 9 resolved

Hit rate

33.3%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: mars_uncrewed_landing_window

Linked via embedding similarity 0.552

All classes →

Successful uncrewed payload delivery to Mars surface within named transfer window

Base rate

50.0%

9/18 historical

Inside weight

0.300

TRF=1.00

Outside weight

0.700

pulling toward base rate

inside 43.5% → blend 48.0% (Δ 4.5pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 48.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱

2025-07-22hitSpace Foundation Q2 2025 report: $613B global space economy 2024
How: Space Foundation 2025 Q2 report documents global space economy >$600B for 2024
Source: https://www.spacefoundation.org/2025/07/22/the-space-report-2025-q2/conf 99%
Notes: HIT — $613B global space economy validates the 'multi-hundred-billion economy' framing for the broader space sector.
2026-04-29hitNvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.
2026-04-29hitNvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.
2026-04-29hitNvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).
2026-04-29hitNvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a
2026-04-30hitGlobal space launch market reaches $21B revenue in 2025
How: Industry research firm (Precedence, Fortune Business Insights, Grand View) confirms global space launch market revenue >=$20B in 2025
Source: https://www.precedenceresearch.com/press-release/space-launch-services-market — $21.19B in 2025conf 95%
Notes: HIT (partial) — $21B launch market is on the path to multi-hundred-billion but far from there yet.
2026-04-30overdueSpaceX 2026 revenue projection $22-24B with 82% commercial market share
How: SpaceX achieves >=$20B revenue in 2026 with >=70% commercial launch market share, demonstrating dominant scale
Source: https://www.aviationoutlook.com/p/spacex-company-analysis-outlook-reportconf 85%
2026-06-20pendingSatellite launches will become a multi-hundred-billion / multi-trillion dollar economy.
2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingAnnual orbital launch attempts cross 350 globally
How: Total orbital launch attempts globally exceed 350 in calendar 2026 per Space Launch Now/Jonathan's Space Report (vs 261 in 2024, 273 in 2025)
Source: Space Launch Now, Jonathan's Space Reportconf 85%
2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst trillion-dollar space economy milestone projection (2032)
How: Space Foundation, Morgan Stanley, or BoA Securities reaffirms or moves up trillion-dollar space economy timeline (2030-2032 range) based on commercial launch acceleration
Source: https://www.spacefoundation.org/2025/07/22/the-space-report-2025-q2/conf 75%
2026-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingStarship operational: cost per kg to LEO drops below $500
How: SpaceX achieves operational Starship payload economics with public cost per kg to LEO <=$500, enabling Blundin's multi-trillion launch economy thesis
Source: SpaceX Starship updates, NSS analysisconf 55%
Notes: Cascade — Blundin's multi-trillion thesis requires order-of-magnitude launch cost reduction.
2028-06-25pendingWe're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.
2030-09-27pendingMost large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 48%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z48.0%-2.5pp

metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.435 blend=0.480 LLR=-0.283 κ=0.82 w_in=0.30 mars_uncrewed_landing_window

Raw metadata

{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.8214,
  "base_rate": 0.5,
  "predictor": "Dave Blundin",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 0.02191796792988442,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 30% inside / 70% outside (TRF=1.000, base_rate=0.500 from mars_uncrewed_landing_window)",
  "inside_prior": 0.5054792726319042,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.69819,
      "label": "SpaceX 2026 revenue projection $22-24B with 82% commercial market share",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.aviationoutlook.com/p/spacex-company-analysis-outlook-report",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.2830916838300393,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX achieves >=$20B revenue in 2026 with >=70% commercial launch market share, demonstrating dominant scale"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.48042198615634046,
  "posterior_logit": -0.26117371590015487,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0491,
  "inside_posterior": 0.43507520475149297,
  "blended_posterior": 0.48042198615634046,
  "reference_class_id": "mars_uncrewed_landing_window",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.2830916838300393,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 9
}

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.5%-1.3pp

Network propagation: 51.8% → 50.5%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z51.8%-1.2pp

Network propagation: 53.0% → 51.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z53.0%-7.0pp

reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.530 w_in=0.30 mars_uncrewed_landing_window

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.065
prereq	SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang	66.3%	0.600	0.050	-0.061
prereq	SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore	68.3%	0.600	0.050	-0.060
killer	TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	12.0%	0.050	0.600	+0.054
killer	TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	30.0%	0.050	0.600	-0.045

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross	53.0%	0.920	0.050	-0.059
prereq	247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin	40.8%	0.720	0.050	-0.033
prereq	242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis	36.1%	0.650	0.050	-0.021
prereq	244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis	48.4%	0.920	0.050	-0.013
prereq	232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis	35.5%	0.700	0.050	+0.010

Ticker exposure

40 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

APLD ASMIY PLAB EQIX ASML WULF NVDA ALAB MU IREN CRWV NBIS SFTBY AMZN META MSFT STX LNVGY DELL ORCL AMT GOOGL AAPL IRM

Adverse (6)

IBM ACN CHGG GEN LRN WNS

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	SEM_011	Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.	Capital Markets	—
prereq	SEM_027	Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.	Capital Markets	—
prereq	SEM_014	Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).	Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_012	Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.	AI/Manufacturing	—
prereq	SEM_015	Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.	Policy/Semis	—
killer	TK05	Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)	—	—
killer	TK04	Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK02	AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	244_019	Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years	Auto/Transport	—
prereq	248_040	Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.	AI	—
prereq	247_023	AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently	AI	—
prereq	232_055	We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.	AI	—
prereq	242_031	Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years	Markets/Stocks	—

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "multi-hundred billion to multi-trillion dollar economy",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "this is a multiundred billion dollar multi-t trillion dollar economy just launching the satellites which means there will be many many many rockets and that'll be the stepping stone to the moon and to Mars.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "this is a multiundred billion dollar multi-t trillion dollar economy just launching the satellites which means there will be many many many rockets and that'll be the stepping stone to the moon and to Mars.",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Space Foundation Q2 2025 report: $613B global space economy 2024",
      "notes": "HIT — $613B global space economy validates the 'multi-hundred-billion economy' framing for the broader space sector.",
      "source": "https://www.spacefoundation.org/2025/07/22/the-space-report-2025-q2/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.spacefoundation.org/2025/07/22/the-space-report-2025-q2/",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-22",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-22",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Space Foundation 2025 Q2 report documents global space economy >$600B for 2024"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Global space launch market reaches $21B revenue in 2025",
      "notes": "HIT (partial) — $21B launch market is on the path to multi-hundred-billion but far from there yet.",
      "source": "https://www.precedenceresearch.com/press-release/space-launch-services-market — $21.19B in 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.precedenceresearch.com/press-release/space-launch-services-market",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry research firm (Precedence, Fortune Business Insights, Grand View) confirms global space launch market revenue >=$20B in 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX 2026 revenue projection $22-24B with 82% commercial market share",
      "source": "https://www.aviationoutlook.c
... (truncated)