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241_045predictionAIAI-scaling

Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
49.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | you look at what Sam is trying to raise. They need so much money that they're forced into these situations where they have to win those battles. And they're busy winning them

Watch events: OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
you look at what Sam is trying to raise. They need so much money that they're forced into these situations where they have to win those battles. And they're busy winning them

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 49.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓
  1. 2025-03-31hitOpenAI raises $40B funding round (largest private tech deal)
    How: OpenAI confirms close of $40B funding round led by SoftBank in Q1 2025
    Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/openai-closes-40-billion-in-funding-the-largest-private-fundraise-in-history-softbank-chatgpt.htmlconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — $40B closed Mar 31, 2025.
  2. 2026-04-30hitSam Altman publicly raises possibility of $5T cluster fundraise
    How: Altman publicly mentions or implies post-Stargate fundraising target >= $1T
    Source: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/sam-altman-muses-that-after-500bn-stargate-openai-may-raise-5-trillion-for-a-cluster/conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Altman mused $5T figure publicly.
  3. 2026-02-28hitOpenAI announces $110B in new corporate-partner investment (Nvidia/SoftBank/Amazon)
    How: OpenAI publicly confirms new combined $110B commitment from Nvidia ($30B), SoftBank ($30B), Amazon ($50B)
    Source: https://www.newcomer.co/p/openai-raises-110-billion-and-throwsconf 95%
  4. 2026-04-30hitOpenAI valuation crosses $850B in private secondary
    How: Secondary tender or new round prices OpenAI at >= $850B post-money valuation
    Source: https://www.newcomer.co/p/openai-raises-110-billion-and-throwsconf 90%
    Notes: HIT — $852B post-money confirmed.
  5. 2026-12-31pendingStargate $500B project moves past initial $100B commitment milestone
    How: Stargate JV (OpenAI/Oracle/SoftBank/MGX) confirms first $100B deployment with concrete data center buildout
    Source: https://fortune.com/2025/01/22/openai-stargate-ai-sam-altman-donald-trump/conf 70%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.5%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 50.7% → 49.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.7%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 52.9% → 50.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.9%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 55.8% → 52.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.8%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 55.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.088
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.076
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.075
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.060
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.050

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.9200.050-0.056
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.031
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.018
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.013
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.010

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.645gdeltblame game between ai mogulsmentionspending2026-04-30
0.615gdeltelon musk attorney claims openai sam altman stole charity high stakes legal fight beginsmentionspending2026-04-30
0.615gdeltelon musk attorney claims openai sam altman stole charity high stakes legal fight beginsmentionspending2026-04-30
0.601manifoldWill I make positive profit in this season on my alt account this season??9%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.596manifoldWill I win the main prize in this (second) prize drawing?2%mentionspending2026-04-23
0.588manifoldWhich individual will win ARML 2026? [add yourself]mentionspending2026-05-12
0.585manifoldWill Ad Brothers beat Mochi?23%mentionspending2026-05-01
0.567polymarketCounter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1100%mentionspending2026-06-02
0.566manifoldWho will win the Second Prize Drawing?mentionspending2026-05-01
0.561polymarketCounter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs paiN - Map 2 Winner19%mentionspending2026-05-12

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "they need so much money that they're forced into these situations where they have to win those battles",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "you look at what Sam is trying to raise. They need so much money that they're forced into these situations where they have to win those battles. And they're busy winning them",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "present/near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI raises $40B funding round (largest private tech deal)",
      "notes": "HIT — $40B closed Mar 31, 2025.",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/openai-closes-40-billion-in-funding-the-largest-private-fundraise-in-history-softbank-chatgpt.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/openai-closes-40-billion-in-funding-the-largest-private-fundraise-in-history-softbank-chatgpt.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI confirms close of $40B funding round led by SoftBank in Q1 2025"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Sam Altman publicly raises possibility of $5T cluster fundraise",
      "notes": "HIT — Altman mused $5T figure publicly.",
      "source": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/sam-altman-muses-that-after-500bn-stargate-openai-may-raise-5-trillion-for-a-cluster/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/sam-altman-muses-that-after-500bn-stargate-openai-may-raise-5-trillion-for-a-cluster/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2025-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Altman publicly mentions or implies post-Stargate fundraising target >= $1T"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI announces $110B in new corporate-partner investment (Nvidia/SoftBank/Amazon)",
      "source": "https://www.newcomer.co/p/openai-raises-110-billion-and-throws",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.newcomer.co/p/openai-raises-110-billion-and-throws",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI publicly confirms new combined $110B commitment from Nvidia ($30B), SoftBank ($30B), Amazon ($50B)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-2
... (truncated)