Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Sam Altman / OpenAI and competitors will need enormous amounts of money to win | you look at what Sam is trying to raise. They need so much money that they're forced into these situations where they have to win those battles. And they're busy winning them
Watch events: OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
you look at what Sam is trying to raise. They need so much money that they're forced into these situations where they have to win those battles. And they're busy winning them
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-03-31hitOpenAI raises $40B funding round (largest private tech deal)How: OpenAI confirms close of $40B funding round led by SoftBank in Q1 2025Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/openai-closes-40-billion-in-funding-the-largest-private-fundraise-in-history-softbank-chatgpt.htmlconf 99%Notes: HIT — $40B closed Mar 31, 2025.
- 2026-04-30hitSam Altman publicly raises possibility of $5T cluster fundraiseHow: Altman publicly mentions or implies post-Stargate fundraising target >= $1TSource: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/sam-altman-muses-that-after-500bn-stargate-openai-may-raise-5-trillion-for-a-cluster/conf 95%Notes: HIT — Altman mused $5T figure publicly.
- 2026-02-28hitOpenAI announces $110B in new corporate-partner investment (Nvidia/SoftBank/Amazon)How: OpenAI publicly confirms new combined $110B commitment from Nvidia ($30B), SoftBank ($30B), Amazon ($50B)Source: https://www.newcomer.co/p/openai-raises-110-billion-and-throwsconf 95%
- 2026-04-30hitOpenAI valuation crosses $850B in private secondaryHow: Secondary tender or new round prices OpenAI at >= $850B post-money valuationSource: https://www.newcomer.co/p/openai-raises-110-billion-and-throwsconf 90%Notes: HIT — $852B post-money confirmed.
- 2026-12-31pendingStargate $500B project moves past initial $100B commitment milestoneHow: Stargate JV (OpenAI/Oracle/SoftBank/MGX) confirms first $100B deployment with concrete data center buildoutSource: https://fortune.com/2025/01/22/openai-stargate-ai-sam-altman-donald-trump/conf 70%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.088 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.076 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.060 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.050 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_040 Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. — Alex Wissner-Gross | 53.0% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.031 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.018 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.013 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.010 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_040 | Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "they need so much money that they're forced into these situations where they have to win those battles",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "you look at what Sam is trying to raise. They need so much money that they're forced into these situations where they have to win those battles. And they're busy winning them",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "present/near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI raises $40B funding round (largest private tech deal)",
"notes": "HIT — $40B closed Mar 31, 2025.",
"source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/openai-closes-40-billion-in-funding-the-largest-private-fundraise-in-history-softbank-chatgpt.html",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/openai-closes-40-billion-in-funding-the-largest-private-fundraise-in-history-softbank-chatgpt.html",
"expected_date": "2025-04-15",
"observed_date": "2025-03-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI confirms close of $40B funding round led by SoftBank in Q1 2025"
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Sam Altman publicly raises possibility of $5T cluster fundraise",
"notes": "HIT — Altman mused $5T figure publicly.",
"source": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/sam-altman-muses-that-after-500bn-stargate-openai-may-raise-5-trillion-for-a-cluster/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/sam-altman-muses-that-after-500bn-stargate-openai-may-raise-5-trillion-for-a-cluster/",
"expected_date": "2025-12-31",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2025-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Altman publicly mentions or implies post-Stargate fundraising target >= $1T"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "OpenAI announces $110B in new corporate-partner investment (Nvidia/SoftBank/Amazon)",
"source": "https://www.newcomer.co/p/openai-raises-110-billion-and-throws",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.newcomer.co/p/openai-raises-110-billion-and-throws",
"expected_date": "2026-02-28",
"observed_date": "2026-02-28",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI publicly confirms new combined $110B commitment from Nvidia ($30B), SoftBank ($30B), Amazon ($50B)"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-2
... (truncated)